Yellen said that excess capacity of China is the result of long -term accumulation and will not be resolved within one or one month.In other words, this issue opens a gap to the United States' intervention in China's industrial policy, which will be long -term.While the United States is accusing the Chinese government for subsidies, itself and other developed countries are embracing industrial policies and introducing government subsidies.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen launched the wind before its visit to China.At this time, China has hotly discussed "new productive forces" and uses it as a program to guide the next stage of economic development.The country is discussing this issue and the formulation of various plans around it, which has also triggered concerns about the new round of overcapacity.Yellen said at a press conference before leaving China that the two parties will discuss the issues of related production capacity through the exclusive mechanism.
Yellen's speech marks an important change in the policy of China: from focusing on the external behavior of China to focusing on the internal structure -from foreign trade parts to the economy as a whole, thereby opening up a new front.One step.Yellen specifically mentioned the "new three" exported by China: new energy vehicles (pure electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, etc.), lithium batteries and photovoltaic products.China's photovoltaic component production ranks first in the world for 16 consecutive years, and the production and sales of new energy vehicles are nine years in the world. Chinese companies have accounted for more than 60 % of global power battery installed capacity.These are the highlights of the weak Chinese economy.Looking at the historical background, this game has just begun, and it will be widely affected and a long duration.
The late East Asian model conversion
The historical background of the production capacity war is that the globalization is suddenly reversed, and developed countries have abandoned the international division of labor after the Cold War: they occupy high -end manufacturing and service industries and turn a large number of mid -to -low -end manufacturing industries to developing countries.This pattern is beneficial to the top rich at the top, but it hurts the Pan -white -led wage public, causing a political rebound, so that these countries have to change their string and change from embracing liberal globalization to economic nationalism.In order to expand domestic employment, they must promote the relocation of the manufacturing industry and develop their own industries and supply systems.In this way, it is necessary to protect the country's market.
Due to the reset of this strategic focus, Yellen highly declared that the United States is no longer welcoming imported goods.The income of the US -working class has stagnated since the 1970s, maintaining living standards by continuous price reductions and quality improvement Chinese products.The United States is not welcome now because it believes that creating employment is more in line with the interests of the middle class, which needs to recapture the domestic market from imported products.In order to be competitive, in addition to improving tariffs, the US government must solve the problem from the source -China's overcapacity.
This conversion is actually a few pages from the textbooks in the East Asian development model.After the World War II countries, all countries in the world are developing the economy, and only the export -oriented East Asian model has succeeded.The exports of East Asian countries are competitive and continuously upgraded. The government's industrial policy is considered a key role. For example, TSMC's start -up funds are from the government; Samsung, South Korea, and modern large consortia are still champion companies.Enfair.The situation of the Japanese consortium is similar -South Korea is studying Japan.
The domestic market in the childhood industry has room for domestic markets to provide room for survival, growth and exercise.However, the East Asian model also has special historical opportunities: as the forefront of the Cold War, Japan and the Four Dragons not only accumulated initial capital from the US procurement, but also benefited from the market that the United States opened for them and generous technology transfer.All kinds of favorable conditions enable them to use price and low -quality beauty products as weapons, destroy their peers in competitive countries, and reach the best scale of market and production capacity.In short, the rise of East Asia is completed by violating the rules of free markets.
China's export -oriented economy also benefited from the end of the Cold War, the industrial transfer that emerged globally, incorporated into the capitalist world economy and developed countries.As a large economy, its East Asian model is different.There are four layers of local governments in China, and there are thousands of counties above the county.They are all responsible for the development of the local economy.The government with a large number of resources, compared to private enterprises, has a huge advantage in raising funds and investment promotion. Therefore, investment -promoting growth is the characteristics of China's economy, and excess capacity is the norm of this model: when it is a place (and state -owned enterprises)When they are pursuing popular industries, repeated investment will soon cause overcapacity.The first thing that appeared was local trade barriers and trade wars instead of export -the central government is still trying to establish a national unified market.
The elimination of backward production capacity is also a long -term problem of the central government.People still remember that when Shanghai exited the textile industry in the 1990s, the central government sent people to the scene to stare at the destroyed spinning ingots to prevent them from reorganizing production after relocation.In 2016, the government planned for three to five years, shut down the coal production capacity of 500 million tons, and the steel production capacity was reduced by more than 50 million tons. By 2020, the nation's cancellation and delayed coal power construction projects were canceled20 million kilowatts.China's silicon wafer capacity utilization rate fell from 78%in 2019 to 57%in 2022; in 2022, lithium -ion battery output reached 1.9 times that of domestic battery installed capacity.In early 2023, the country's total capacity utilization rate has fallen to less than 75%since 2016.The government work report of the "two sessions" this year is still talking: strengthening "investment guidance in key areas, preventing excess capacity, low quality, and repeated development."
Over -competition in China has caused many companies to make a meager profit or even lose money. It has to use overseas markets to make up for domestic losses.Therefore, it is the company's life and death, instead of some people in the West, as some Western people say, it is an aggressive national strategy.The presidential candidates of the United States have stated that Chinese electric vehicles are not allowed to sell the United States; Yellen also vowed that the United States will never allow "low -cost Chinese steel to fill the global market and destroy the industry around the world and the United States."This time she stared at China's "new three".The exports of labor -intensive, mature or backward technology are different. The "new three" is not only in terms of capacity, also technically leading the world, but also related to environmental protection and climate change.These determine their particularity.
Ford Motors and Musk of Tesla both claim that if there is no trade protection measures, China's new energy vehicles will crush the world.In 2023, China's new energy vehicle export volume exceeded 1.1 million units, an increase of 61.6%year -on -year; the export value of lithium batteries exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan (about S $ 244 billion), an increase of 70%year -on -year;(About S $ 679.3 billion), a 50%year -on -year increase.
New three, new features
Compared with traditional industries such as steel, cement, and textiles, there are at least two different characteristics of "new three" due to excess capacity due to overcapacity.
The first feature is that their positive benefits cannot be ignored.Their rapid growth and exports not only help China's economic growth, but also promote global green development and low -carbon transformation.The International Energy Agency stands out and said that high -quality production capacity cannot be considered excess, corresponding to climate change, and can also drive the development of new energy vehicles around the world.If the fuel vehicles on the world's roads are replaced with new energy vehicles, the new three -type production capacity is not excess, but serious inadequate.The US foreign policy journal published a literary journal, and Yellen attacking that the excess capacity of China was difficult to be convincing, thinking that she raised the "three body problems".
The second feature is that "new three" are the fourth industrial revolution industry.The fourth industrial revolution is mainly driven by new technologies such as artificial intelligence, digitalization, and informatization.Compared with the previous industrial revolution, its industry often exponentially grows.The rise of enterprises born in the new technological revolution is much more rapid, and the large -scale production capacity is concentrated to a few enterprises or countries.This enables enterprises to deploy globally and take the global market to give full play to its capacity and technological advantages. This is the case for American companies to produce Apple mobile phones and Tesla electric vehicles produced in China in China.It is difficult for such a company to "produceThe excess is "linked, such as SpaceX's history, but the rocket's launch will soon be among the ranks of the American, China, Russia, and Europe.No one blame its excess capacity.
New three technologies lead, products have unique advantages, and are beneficial to enterprises and the environment.Their production capacity overflows with the previous exports with low technical content such as steel and other technical content cannot be treated equally.
Politics of production capacity
Yellen admitted at a press conference at the end of the visit of China that excess capacity in China is the result of long -term accumulation and will not be resolved within one or one month.In other words, this issue opens a gap to the United States' intervention in China's industrial policy, which will be long -term.While the United States is accusing the Chinese government for subsidies, itself and other developed countries are embracing industrial policies and introducing government subsidies.In this era of globalization, such accusations will become more and more pale.
"Excess capacity" is a vague and misleading term.Its derived "production and energy politics" makes Yellen a basic theory of economics: if each country should only be produced according to its own spending power, international trade will no longer exist.Now it is the turn of Chinese officials to read the scriptures of liberalism: overcapacity is the performance of the market mechanism, and the imbalance of supply and demand is the normal state. It has also appeared many times in the history of Western countries such as the United States.The market is adjusted in accordance with the law of value.
According to the characteristics of the fourth industrial revolution industry described above, we can think of such a situation: All comparative advantages are concentrated in a country, and a country can supply cheap products around the world -thisIt is entirely possible under the rapid development of artificial intelligence.Chinese workers' skills, quality, diligence, discipline and hard work, China's 996 workplace culture, industrial agglomeration effects and industrial chain ecology, as well as first -class infrastructure. From the perspective of pure economic perspective, it is difficult to imagine which countryMore advantages than China.As an example, Chinese car companies are open to supply with the most advanced technology, best scale, best quality and minimum production cost, which can consume less resources, improve the environment faster, and provide consumers with moreLow price and better products.For all mankind, this may be the best choice.
However, the capitalist "heaven and earth justice" is no food without work.With the industry, there can be jobs, so Yellen is essentially saying: We can't compete for you in the new three, but our workers have to eat, so we must allocate production capacity and interests.In this way, economic problems have become political issues, and it also reveals the dilemma of capitalist production.She advocates that China has some demand -side reforms (such as spending some support for family consumption, rather than blind supply -side reforms), but it is also unreasonable, but it is also cure.Complete solutions are yet to grow, mature, and become mainstream of capitalist production methods.
The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore
