Source: Bloomberg
Author: RAN Li
Benefiting from the expected strengthening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and the improvement of Sino -US relations, a few months after the RMB against the US dollar near 7.3, the recently appreciated by continuous and stronger and stronger guidance of the middle price.EssenceThis round of rebounds or not yet competed, the upcoming seasonal and other factors, delayed delayed foreign exchange settlement is expected to further help the appreciation of the renminbi.
On the one hand, because of conventional exporters, they choose to settle foreign exchange due to cash demand at the end of the year, which has affected several times in the history of the RMB against the US dollar to break the slump after November.On the other hand, due to the strong expected RMB depreciation of the RMB this year, many exporters choose to hold foreign exchange to earn the dollar yields, and use loans to meet the demand for RMB. The amount of foreign exchange settlement is large.This means that when the exchange rate is expected to reverse, more delayed foreign exchange settlement demand has the opportunity to be triggered and released.
This turning is happening today."The recent hundreds of daily increases have reflected the end of exporters' arbitrage transactions and an increase in foreign exchange settlement." Xing Zhaopeng, a senior Chinese strategist at Australia and New Bank, said in an interview.
Although the US dollar is still a key factor in determining the RMB, seasonal factors "may support the increase in RMB before the end of the year," said Neo Wang, general managing director of Evercore ISI in New York, said that December will be the peak of foreign exchange settlement.
CICC's report also believes that it is expected to reverse or trigger the previously delayed foreign exchange. The accelerated entry will be a great force to promote the rebound of RMB.The report states that as of September this year, the difference between the international cargo trade surplus and the trade -in and sales surplus surplus of goods trade reached 26.89 billion US dollars (S $ 349.3 billion), which was 290.32 billion U.S. dollars in 2022, which was 66% higher than 2021.Essence
The signal of the expected steering frequently appears.The gold price difference at home and abroad has reached a high level since September, and it has shrunk significantly this month.Under normal circumstances, due to the cost of importing transportation, processing, and processing, the price adjustment of the exchange rate is higher than the international gold; when the depreciation pressure is high and the gold imports are limited by the capital outflow risk limit, the decrease in domestic gold supply will be increased to increaseDomestic gold premium.According to Bloomberg's calculation, the current US dollar/RMB exchange rate implied by gold has fallen from 7.6 at the peak to near 7.25.
At the same time, foreign capital inflows are also improving. In October, foreign institutions increased their holdings of interbank bonds. Among them, the increase in policy bank bonds was the largest in a single month of more than two and a half years.The reduction of holdings to increase its holdings.Edmund Goh, the investment manager of Anben Standard Investment Management, said that foreign capital is expected to continue to buy Chinese bonds in the next few months.
In addition, the regulatory signal also gives a certain amount of confidence."The Central Bank of China is still constantly improving the middle price, which means that the reasonable price has not yet arrived," Xing Zhaopeng said. He expects that the location is between 7.0-7.1.
However, the appreciation of the renminbi also faces some constraints, including the still wide and American spread, and the passenger trading purchase that has not been realized in the early stage of the dips.Comprehensive multiple traders have continued to increase significantly in the coastal market since last week. Export customers in some areas have begun to step up foreign exchange settlements to prevent further appreciation of the RMB. At the same timeThe demand for exchange is still digestion.
