Source: China News Agency
Author: Bo Wenwen
On January 14, local time, Pakistani conflict entered the 100th day.
Since October 7 last year, the risks of the Gaza Strip's smoke and the risk of overflowing have intensified.
Pakistani "two defeats hurt"
Tian Wenlin, a professor at the School of International Relations of the Renmin University of China and a senior researcher at the Regional National Institute, believes that this round of conflict has made Battle of Pakistan a "two defeats", and both are "great injuries."
田文林向中新社记者表示，目前来看，虽然巴勒斯坦伊斯兰抵抗运动（哈马斯）实现了发动“阿克萨洪水”行动的诉求，即扭转巴勒斯坦问题边缘化的处境、破坏以色列与Saudi Arabia's relationship is normalized, but Pakistan has paid a shocking casualties and losses.
At present, the Gaza Strip has died more than 23,000 Barstinians, and more than 1.9 million people were displaced, and at least 60%of infrastructure was destroyed.The United Nations Development Planning Office predicts that the development level of the Gaza Strip will go back 16 to 19 years.
"Israel looks very strong and aggressive on the surface, but it also pays a huge price." Tian Wenlin analyzed that the round of conflicts exposed the three "failures" of Israel.First, the previous strategic failure, the policy of "both land and peace" can not be maintained; the second is that the image of the "Nazi Holocaust victims" that Israel has been shaped in the international community has fallen to an unprecedented low in the international community.Many countries and Israel have broken diplomatic relations or recall ambassadors, and South Africa has accused Israel's implementation of racial extinction; the third is that the security predicament intensifies, and threatened by armed disturbances. Israel blindly rely on military means to seek absolute security, so that its own safety is facing the risk of being rejected.
Extend risk of overflow
Recently, the intervention of different degrees of intervention in the Lebanon Allah, Yemenhasu armed forces, and Syrian and Iraqi militia armed forces have repeatedly heated the regional situation.
"At the beginning of the outbreak of Pakistani’ s this round of conflict, many scholars believed that it was just a 'storm in the teapot', which would not have a regional impact. But at present, conflicts have spill over. "In Tian Wenlin, whether the spillover trend will be trending will beThe exacerbation depends mainly on the duration of conflict and military confrontation intensity."Israel's military operation in the Gaza Strip causing an anti -armed public anger. If the army does not end this operation, the spillover effect will continue to spread and even upgrade."
Tian Wenlin said that all parties do not want the situation in the Middle East conflict to upgrade.As a regional anti -American "leader", Iran hopes to "set fire and burns the mountains" instead of "ignite the fire", and is unwilling to directly conflict with Israel and the United States behind it.Because the United States moves eastward because of its strategic center of gravity, it also does not want to be involved in the Middle East war again.
However, Tian Wenlin pointed out that the possibility of new regional wars in the Middle East is gradually increasing."It is precisely because many regions have seen the mentality of unwillingness to upgrade the conflict, so they constantly adopt the marginal policy of war to force the other party to shot. Instead, all parties may inevitably be involved in the war.
What is the tense situation?
After 100 days, where will the situation of Pakistani go?Where is the way out of peace?
Israeli National Defense Minister Garrant recently said that the military operations of the Israeli army in the north of the Gaza Strip have shifted from high -intensity combat to low -intensity operations, but the next stage of the battle "will last longer.Tian Wenlin believes that in the context of "strong babies", this conflict may eventually lead to the "ruins" of the Gaza Strip and "objectively form an unmanned area or buffer zone for Israel to ensure its safety."
Earlier this month, US Secretary of State Brillings started the fourth trip to the Middle East since the outbreak of this round of conflict, trying to "fire" to cool down.Tian Wenlin refers to this trip as "Yang Tang Bo boiling" instead of "salary at the bottom of the kettle"."Although the United States emphasizes the protection of civilians, strengthens the humanitarian assistance of Gaza, and cracks down on Houthi forces, it has always avoided the most critical ceasefire issues and continues to support Israel and provides them with military and diplomatic support."
"The true way out of the Pakistani problem is still the 'two -country plan'. If you want to realize peace, you must return to this plan." Tian Wenlin pointed out that Israel's determination and ability, the attitude and approach of the United States, the Middle East, and the instead of the Middle East.The follow -up response of the front and the pressure of public opinion in the international community will be an important factor affecting the trend of conflict.
