In the 14 years of the Conservative Party, Brexit has occurred, but there is no final result with the EU's negotiations; there are also five prime ministers, of which Tellas and Sonak have set a historical record for British Prime Minister.Essence
Although the days are unreasonable, the British Conservative Prime Minister Sonak announced that 2024 will be the election year before Christmas last year.
The United Kingdom is held every five years.The establishment of the election date is the prime minister's privilege. He can announce it in advance before the five -year term expired, or it can be suddenly announced at any time after taking office.As long as you are within his tenure, you can start the election at any time, which is very flexible.Therefore, when the Prime Minister will start the election, it is a hot topic for the British media over the past few months.The current consensus is: as early as May and the latest January 28, 2025.
After World War II, the British election was the dispute between the Conservative Party and the Labor Party. Occasionally, the United Government occasionally appeared (such as the joint ruling of the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democratic Party from 2010 to 2015).In the past, I saw that the Prime Minister's resignation, internal fighting, and change in British history were unknown.In the past 14 years, the Political Conservative Party has basically repeated the strange British politics struggles: during the joint administration with the Liberal Democratic Party, the Liberal Democratic Party was severely damaged. In 2015, it was abandoned by voters, which made the Conservative Party ruling alone in 2015;After losing the Brexit referendum, Meilun resigned immediately; then Johnson was stabbed behind his colleague's friend Gef when he was competing with the party leader, and was forced to give up the competition.
Torresa Mei came to power in 2016. In order to obtain an absolute majority of seats to solve the problem of Brexit, the hasty launching the 2017 election, losing Cameron's major seats in 2015, was forced to enter the United Government again for theSince then Brexit has created serious obstacles and caused himself to be forced to step down in 2019.At the end of 2019, Johnson won the election. In 2022, the party crisis was deep. The Conservative Party took the opportunity to take the opportunity. Johnson's second anti -bone in Sunak's past promotion was intended to replace the phase.In this internal, the shortest Prime Minister Tras (only 44 days) in British history appeared; Sunak finally entered Tangning Street and became the first non -white prime minister in Britain.
Therefore, in the 14 years of the Conservative Party, there was a Brexit, but there was no final result with the European Union. There were also five prime ministers, of which Trask and Sunak set a historical record for the British Prime Minister.
Before 2020, Brexit has always been one of the largest news in Britain and even the world.Since then, with the outbreak of the crown disease, the invasion of Ukraine in Russia, Hamas attack Israel, Israel retaliated, and the deepening of competition between China and the United States, the global situation has come again, and the three places have changed.continued.Against the background of the global days, Sunak also faced the opposition of Johnson supporters in the Conservative Party.With such internal and foreign trapped, Sunak's public opinion has been declining since 2023.
According to the polls of Yougov, as of January 1, 2024, 64%of the respondents believed that Sunak's performance was not good, and only 25%thought he had performed well.His opponent, the number of polls of the Labor Party, the head of the Labor Party, was slightly better, but it was not so good: 46%thought he had not performed well, and 36%thought it was good.
It can be understood like this. Starmore's polls seem to be the lead, not because he is excellent, but because Sunak's performance is too weak.Unity Conservative Party.If the party leader (that is, the replacement of the Prime Minister) in the party at this time, it may continue to stimulate public opinion.
The 2024 election, who will win?According to the investigation of public observation, by December 18, 2023, 26%of the respondents believed that the Labor Party would win; 19%believed that the Labor Party would win a small scope; 14%believed that the joint government would occur; only 6%believed that the Conservative Party could be small.The scope is better, and only 2%are confident in the Conservative Party and believe that they can win greatly.Therefore, this is a favorable situation that is good for the Labor Party.
As early as 2015, I made a series of British Chinese participation reports for the BBC Chinese website.In order to run, I joined the Liberal Democratic Party in March last year, participated in the regional election in May, and lost to the conservative party candidate, ranked second.Then I started the online test of the candidate for the candidate for the election. In the process of studying the party outline, I found that I was disappointed with the Liberal Democratic Party's economic policy. In December, I transferred to the Labor Party and now I have started to participate in the election of the constituency.Therefore, I have a macro observation and personal field experience for the British elections.
Because the constituency needs to be adjusted with the changes in the population, the number of constituencies in each election in the UK is different.A few months ago, a town in North Somerset was removed from our constituency and formed a new constituency with several towns in other constituencies.There are currently 650 constituencies in Britain, of which 533 are in England.At present, the Conservative Party, Labor Party, Liberal Democratic Party and the Reform Party will arrange candidates in 650 constituencies.
Generally speaking, candidates for elections are divided into three levels: security constituencies (that is, voters who support their own parties accounted for most) candidates, which is very likely to be elected as candidates for members.The conservative party headquarters can arrange for the candidates who picked themselves to enter the safety constituency, making it safe to become a member of the members; the Labor Party and the Liberal Democratic Party cannot be voted by members of the constituency party organization.Some party members lasted for 10 years to become candidates for security constituencies.
As early as 2023, the party has begun to prepare for the election, and candidates for the safety constituency have already taken the lead.I participated in the Liberal Democratic Party's election in August last year.From my post in X's contact, the Conservative and Labor elections candidate for the Labor Party had begun to run in June.
The second level is likely to win; the third level is completely hopeless to win, called Paper Seat, but because of its hopelessness, the time, money and manpower are relatively small in the campaign, and even do not engage in campaign.EssenceThis is the selection of the candidate's ticket at the latest. If the candidate chooses a distant constituency from home, it is necessary to take public transportation or drive. These traffic costs often pay for themselves, because all parties will pay most of their attention., Time and Money invested in the first level of security constituencies, other constituencies basically destroyed themselves.Until now, the Labor Party and the Conservative Party are at the end of determining the candidate for the third -level constituency.
For the small party, such as the reform party, although 650 candidates are sent to verbally, whether there are so many party members willing to run (because there is no security constituency, the candidate is not in the victory, but to win the popularity to win the reputation), You need to make a question mark, let alone the debate.
How to become a candidate, the selection procedures for each party are different.The Liberal Democratic Party needs to participate in the candidate assessment first, and after passing it, it is qualified to register for the election; the Labor Party is different. After joining the party for one year, if you encounter a election, you can register at any time and then participate in the assessment.
Our constituency is a Conservative Party Security Zone, and my Labor Party is not even sure (because it is the most unable to win the election, that is, the least valued area), but the campaign has beenExpand.For such constituencies, as long as the number of votes obtained by the Workers' Party in 2024 is higher than the 2019 election, it is victory.
Although the public opinion is good, the Labor Party has lessons and lessons -in 1992, when the public opinion was optimistic about the Labor Party, the Conservative Mei Jie won the election.Therefore, it is difficult to predict who will win the 2024 election.
The author is a bilingual writer who settled in the UK
