Source: Ming Pao
Ming Pao Society Review
Hong Kong's economy is weak, and a new policy report is released today. The theme of "fighting for the development of the economy and the development of benefit people's livelihood and happiness" is the theme.Wait and see.The global economic downturn, the high -interest environment continues, and the geopolitical situation, which is not conducive to Hong Kong. The peripherals are anxious. The most important thing in Hong Kong is to do it.The mainland's economy is to be vibrated, and the financial situation of the SAR government has deteriorated. In fact, there are not many economic means to stimulate the economic means. The measures of the city's city are only expedient. The goal is to exchange time in time.The long -term measures to enhance the competitiveness of Hong Kong have been gradually effective.This means that the government and all walks of life must accelerate the transformation of Hong Kong's economic transformation. Don't fantasize to eat the old road, the economy will usher in a turnaround.
Policy Report Fighting Economy
Development during the difficult period
This time is the second political report of the Chief Executive Li Jiachao. If compared with the theme of the first policy report, "conspiracy development" and "happiness" are still keywords. The biggest difference is the 12 -character theme of this time.Highlighting the "spelling economy", and before the "development", to a certain extent, it reflects the short -term boosting the urgency of Hong Kong's economy, and even first and long -term "conspiracy development".After the Hong Kong epidemic, the dynamic power of recovery disappeared quickly. A new policy report requires "emergency help". What is the most concerned about the government and the investment community is the government's measures.Essence
The Hong Kong property market has fallen from a historical high level. The market that the market once longed for the "rebound after the epidemic" was a short -lived. The accumulated increase will be zero since this year.In the past few months, many people in the political and business circles have been fully withdrawn in full, and they say that the "property market will collapse" for a while. It is also said that the rise in property prices can bring a "wealth effect" to stimulate the economy.It will reduce spicy.As for the stamp duty of the stock, it seems that it is imperative, and the key is also the amplitude.What are the final decisions of the politics report? Today, it has its own division. It does not rule out that investors still think that the market is insufficient and the market response is to be observed.
Out of their own interests, of course, it is better to want the government to hold the market better and better, but then again, the property market reduces spicy and withdrawn on the real economy.The saying of bringing wealth "is also exaggerated.Some studies have pointed out that the liquidity of stock exchange wealth is much higher than the property, and the stock market is indeed stimulating for consumption, but the effect of property wealth is actually very low.The effect is even almost zero.As for reducing the stamp duty of the stock, the biggest problem lies in the significant reduction or temporary suspension, which will affect the income of government warehouses.At present, the government has the pressure of wealth, and the space to reduce the stamp duty of the stock is actually not large.
The macroeconomic performance depends on the four aspects of consumption, investment, government expenditure and foreign trade. Considering that Hong Kong's foreign trade is subject to weak peripheral demand, many large infrastructure projects in artificial islands and Beidu will only start construction in one or two years, and continue to send money meeting.The exacerbation of wealth, night economy, etc. to boost consumption measures, have also been densely debuted. The short -term stimulus measures that the government can take is actually almost the same.Now the government's entrusted market will help stimulate the property market's stock market to trade. It always helps to boost market confidence in the short term.It can be exempted from foreigners' first home property taxes, or the practice of "exemptions first and then levy" can cooperate with grabbing talent policies; the stamp tax rate of stock stamps will be reduced from the current 0.13%to 0.1%.The competitiveness of the international financial center also has a positive effect.These measures have at least other policy effects, not to support the market.
The development paradigm must be changed
If you find a way out, you cannot rely on frying
The current dilemma faced by the current economy in Hong Kong is that there are too many adverse factors in the periphery and insufficient internal self -reliance; the time for promoting economic upgrades and transformations cannot be immediately, but short -term stimulation economic tools that can be used in hand are very limited.What the official actual situation can do now is to take some short -term measures to prevent the economic stall from falling, try to support it for a while, hoping that the transfer of the surrounding situation, weakening the wind against the wind, and letting various talents grabbing talents, corporates, promoting their own subjects, and promoting their own subjects, and promoting their own subjects, and promoting their own subjects, promoting their own subjects, and promoting their own subjects, and promoting their own subjects, and promoting their own subjects, promoting their own subjects, and promoting their subjects, and promoting their own subjects, promoting their own subjects, and promoting their own subjects, and promoting their own subjects, and promoting their own sciences, and promoting their own subjects, promoting their own subjects, and promoting their own subjects.Open up development plans such as emerging markets in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, and gradually see the results.
The global economy is unclear, and how long the high -interest environment lasted, no one said accurately. What Hong Kong can do is to integrate the foundation and step into the overall situation of the Greater Bay Area and the national development of the Greater Bay Area.The changes in the economic downturn and geopolitical changes in the Mainland have a great impact on Hong Kong's economic performance.In recent months, the Hong Kong stock market has been picked up, and the participation of Western investment in the West has decreased. The market generally believes that there are many people who sing the economic prospects of the mainland in the Mainland.Historical experience also proves that the economic toughness of the Mainland is often stronger than foreign analysts. Just as the mainland stock market disaster in 2015 and 16, the outside world was also full of pessimistic arguments, but one or two years later was another scene.In addition, the Sino -US struggle pattern is difficult to change, and it does not mean that there is only a tension confrontation.Recently, Sino -US relations have been eased slightly. California governor visited China this week to negotiate cooperation. The first stop was Hong Kong, reflecting that even if Hong Kong was narrowed significantly, it could still be able to find "find a station".
Hong Kong's economy is under pressure, and it is inevitable that in the next year, the policy report must have short -term boost measures to slow down the pain, and to strive for time to accelerate the diversification of industrial and achieve economic upgrades and transformation.Understand a framework.If someone thinks that the government withdraws the spicy, the "North Water" will make a comeback and fry the Hong Kong property market. This is the same as that in the tourism retail industry in the tourism retail industry.The paradigm must be changed.
