Source: Zhongshi News Network

Author: Zhang Deng and

After 2023, the main theme of the international situation had only two main axes: fierce competition in the United States and China, and the war with the Russia and Ukraine was in a deadlock.Among these two main axes, there is a short -term core variable that affect both: 2024 US presidential elections.The battle of the two main axis has no solution in the short term, and the big winning or losses must look at the 2024 elections.

Unexpectedly, the Hamas organization, which was originally abandoned internationally, suddenly launched a raid to Israel, which occupied absolute advantages, causing more than 1,400 people to die, and more than 200 people who were abducted.Prime Minister Neiahu, known for its toughness, immediately hit the Gaza air strikes and shells. It has now killed more than 5,000 people and includes more than a thousand children.Especially on the 18th, the Baptist Hospital encountered an unknown attack and caused more than 400 casualties, and immediately the Quartet talks planned by President Biden himself were canceled.Hospital attacks may be shot down like Malaysia Airlines in Ukraine in 2014. Who is the responsible party will never have a complete answer.However, the political effect of this incident has emerged, that is, the United States hopes that after the withdrawal of Afghanistan in 2021, through the normalization of Aduos to ensure the strategic goal of maintaining stability in the Middle East, it will be considered a considerable restraint.

The Pakistani conflict will not evolve into the Sixth Middle East War in the short term.The reason for the reason is that Hamas uses women and children as the goal of kidnapping and killing, and will not win international support.Deep factors include Iran and other anti -American power, and also hope to master the strategic vacuum of the United States withdrawn. Therefore, although it assists Hamas, it will not provoke the United States to return to the teacher at this time.

However, the conflict of Gaza will become the chaos of the two major international spindle problems and short -term core variables in the aforementioned.Because of this, Biden will rush to Israel, and once it supports the right of self -defense, it is even more to curb the "larger bureau" in Neihuhu.The heads of Germany, France, Britain, and other countries also visited, saying that they came to solidarity, but they also strived for "priority" to seek the release of their own hostages, and urged people to rescue people to enter the theater to avoid stimulating European terrorism.The battle of the north of the north, which was originally "expensive", was delayed.The Fang has now allowed a group of rescue materials to release the Egyptian port. Key countries such as the Saudi State "each play fifty big boards" and have not completely fallen to Pakistan, it can be seen that the US -Europe mediation has preliminary results.

The United States has made every effort to ease the chaos. In this crisis, the mission that is capable of saving the international order in this crisis will also experience twists and turns, because to satisfy the two goals at the same time: first, not directly sending troops, this is the first red line. This is the first red line. This is the first red line. This is the first red line., So as not to trigger the New Middle East War, the withdrawal of the forces is busy.Second, to ensure that Israel is no longer attacked, so as not to be considered incompetent by the media before the election. This still helps to clean up Hamas to prevent his dead end.

The first item is simple, the second item is difficult.First of all, there are many hostages. How to try to take care of them as much as possible to avoid the fighting of the beast of the Hamas to be treated?Secondly, Clearing Hamas is a town war. The population density and international visibility are higher than that of Bacht in Ukraine and Moser in Iraq.A large number of civilians are "currently carried out", and the humanitarian sword that is used to the West is pointing at themselves.The incompetent civilian casualties will make the cleanliness deterioration as revenge. Behind the retaliation is the dark "double standard", and the dual standard is the taboo of the international order of "rules -based".

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Russia, which was sanctioned and isolated during the Russian and Ukraine War, was accused of "massacre" in Wudong town and caused refugees to be displaced.Gaza's population and the severe casualties are too late.Therefore, recently, Brazil's proposal in the Security Council "immediately unprepared to release hostages and condemn all violence targeting civilians." It was rejected by the United States by one vote, causing uproar, showing that Gaza had become a ruler to look for the order of the United States.

Whether the Ukrainian army can cut down the Russian occupation zone south is no longer possible.In addition to Gaza and Ukraine, the current international order must also face the challenge that Trump may be elected again in 2024. The lawsuit Trump recently mocked easily: "Only Jesus can choose the Speaker."At this time, Biden never wanted to roll the dice, but he was willing to defeat Hamas cleanly by the army, but Nei Tanahu was definitely difficult to settle than any political leader in Taipei.As the common people, we can only want hostages and refugees to be safe.Like the tragedy of the hospital's attack, don't have "Murphy's Law".