Source: Bloomberg
China tighten the liquidity of offshore RMB (CNH) in September to manage the fluctuation of exchange rates and promote the higher offshore interest rate, but it also drives the further increase of cross -border capital outflows in the form of RMB, setting a record of records, setting a record since the record.Two highs.The outflow of the local currency is diluted and the liquidity of the offshore is tightened, and it is likely to be pessimistic cross -market infection.
According to data from the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, the RMB receiving payment record of nearly US $ 44.6 billion, the highest in seven years, and the record high deficit of US $ 44.7 billion in September 2016 was only one step away.This data has been recorded for four consecutive months, and the scale has expanded by month, consistent with the overall capital outflow.The proportion of the currency in the total cross -border payment of RMB this year has exceeded 50%of the currency. The increase in net outflow increases mainly to reflect the pressure on the outflow of funds under securities items, which reflects the transfer of risks in the market in the stock and bond market.
Affected by the differences between the fundamental and monetary policy of China and the United States, the severe upside down of China and the United States has become an important promotion factor for capital outflow this year.In addition to the large surplus of goods and trade items announced by the Foreign Exchange Bureau, major projects such as service trade, initial two income, and direct investment, and securities investment under capital accounts under the first three quarters of the first three quarters of the project under the three quarters of the project under capital accountIt is reflected in the foreign exchange market, and the cumulative declines in domestic and foreign RMB have also reached about 5.5%and 5.1%, respectively.
In addition to structural factors, some measures taken by raising offshore RMB financing costs in the short term, such as reducing the amount of RMB outlets in the market of foreign exchange falls, continuing to do offshore RMB central tickets, etc., will also make it possibleRMB's profit -seeking funds tend to flow from the country.In September, the average value of the offshore RMB Hibor (Hong Kong Banking Industry RMB) exceeded 4.5%, while the average repurchase interest rate of the same period in China was less than 2.5%.Add power outflow.
CNH financing costs have raised the cost of RMB in the foreign exchange market, but there is no difference to attack investors with leveraged financing to buy RMB assets.Guan Tao, the chief economist of China Banking Securities, said in an interview with Tencent Financial last week that the liquidity of offshore RMB tightened and the interest rates soared, bringing an unexpected consequence, that is, those who increase leverage for offshore financing for A -share investment for A -share investmentInvestors of land -shares need to sell A shares and reduce leverage, so that the offshore RMB exchange rate has stabilized, but the land converted to continuously sell it.
Northern -directional funds therefore passively form a net return, which is also completed in the form of RMB, and brings corresponding capital depreciation pressures caused by foreign exchange purchase and overseas foreign exchange purchase.According to the data summarized by Bloomberg, the net outflow in the north in the third quarter exceeded 80 billion yuan, but the net inflow of more than 100 billion yuan in the first three quarters.
"(A -share) Shareholders believe that foreign investors have more effective information and ignore the benefits of domestic policies and data. When land shares flow out, they copy their homework and follow them." Guan Tao said.When the exchange rate is innovative, everyone originally hoped that the stabilization rate policy played a role in "one stone, two birds", and could also stabilize the stock market. As a result, the phenomenon of stage departure occurred. Foreign capital outflow became one of the reasons for the continuous decline in A shares.
