The Thailand managed by Social Ethics is difficult in the micro or macroeconomic economy. Therefore, he urgently needs some large policies to establish prestige, which leads to a higher probability of implementation of Luqiao than the canal.As the first policy maker to implement the Thai Bay and Andaman Sea in 300 years, this project will leave his name for his history.
In early 2020, before the crown disease epidemic raging the world, the House of Commons of Thailand suddenly rarely discussed the Clarin River plan that had been controversial in the past, and finally decided that the parliamentary committee would be established within 120 days to discuss the details.Although the plan is not a new project, as early as 2015, it was reported that Chinese private companies intend to cooperate with Thailand to excavate the canal. Although the Thai government denied it, follow -up public opinion was only flowing on the blueprint paper, but in 2020, in 2020,It is the first time that the project has entered the legislative hall, so it has caused the concerns of Southeast Asian countries along the Strait of Malacca, especially Singapore and Malaysia.
In fact, it is not entirely accurate to say that the Clarin River was noticed after 2015, because this plan can be traced back to the Grand City dynasty period of the 15th century (editor: also known as Ayutuo Royal Kingdom, Ayutthay Kingdom, 1351 1351, 1351Again to 1767).At that time, King Na Lai, the rulers of the dynasty, first proposed that a canal can be opened in Claridia and connected the east and west marine channels.After the demise of the Dacheng dynasty, the Lama dynasty (editor's note: the present dynasty), which was replaced, was replaced by the fourth king of the fourth generation (from 1851 to 1868) and the fifth king (from 1868 to 1910).The rejection of the Cera Canal showed the idea of national strength, but in the end, I felt that the construction of the railway network was more practical and chose to give up.
Det the canal may cause regional malignant competition
In addition, foreign forces such as Britain, France, and even Japan have also considered assisting Siam (Thailand) to restart the Clarin River planning between the 19th and 20th centuries, but it is also a high cabinet because of economic reasons and geopolitics.By 2004, the then Prime Minister of Thailand, Daxin, once again brought up again, but in the end, it was left.Although this plan is occasionally mentioned by politicians, it is a project that has not been implemented after more than 300 years.Only with anxiety was strengthened into anxiety.
This plan has not been implemented because the excavation of the canal will cost about $ 28 billion (about S $ 38.5 billion), and the project consumes the shortest seven years.More than 38 billion US dollars, which means that after the completion, the ship company will face a high gate fee, but the Clarin River, which is 120 kilometers long, can only save 1200 kilometers for ships.Strait, its investment return may be lower than expected.
In addition, the project is located in the Claridia. After the canal is excavated, it will be geographically separated from southern Thai.This may be the opportunity to manufacture the Islamic separation forces in the Islamic separation forces of the Islamic separation forces in the Yita, Tao Gongfu, and Peking University.Forces; Singapore may also launch more maritime discounts, which in turn causes regional vicious competition.
Therefore, whether it is the economic level or the geopolitical level, the positive benefits of this canal may bring a lack of guarantee, but the negative effects that may bring can be predicted.Perhaps it was also realized that this reality was that Thailand decided to abandon the excavation canal in late 2020, but at the same time proposed the idea of Claru Bridge.
The idea of land bridge is to build a deep sea port on both sides of the Gorge, and then connect the two ends from the 90 -kilometer bypassing road and the railway, which means that the ship must stop and unload the goods at the closest to the harbor, and then through the land way, the way of land is on the way.It is transported to the seaport on the other side and loaded to another ship to continue the voyage. This will greatly reduce the cost of construction to $ 27.4 billion, and the floating of international raw materials will have a small impact on it.After the concept of Luqiao was proposed, the high cabinet because of the instability of the epidemic and political situation. Until last Tuesday (17th), the new Prime Minister of Thailand ’s social morality announced that the government had begun to evaluate the plan, which means that there is a chance to restart.
The advantage seems to be disadvantage and not eliminated
This news really made Malaysia's sleeping and food unhealthy, which also attracted the attention of scholars in the Asia -Pacific region.In addition to the relatively low cost and construction difficulty, although he has just taken office, he has just taken office, but because he is a compromised prime minister who has compromised the game after he is the Thai election, he needs to be prestige.Thailand's budget in 2024 has been postponed to next year, and the economic growth of the country has slowed, and government bonds have soared to more than 60%of the GDP (GDP).The Thailand managed by Social Ethics is difficult in the micro or macroeconomic economy. Therefore, he urgently needs some large -scale policies to establish prestige, which leads to a higher probability of implementation of Luqiao than the canal.
Luqiao can reduce costs, and second to increase employment opportunities, and three can get a share in the international maritime economy economy; more importantly, social morality can transform this plan into his own achievements as his own achievements as his own achievements as his own achievements as his own achievements as his own achievements as his own achievements as his own achievements.In 300 years, Thailand's first policy maker to implement the Thai Bay and Andaman Sea Plan will allow him to leave his name for his history.Of course, although the benefits of Luqiao seem to be more than the canal, the original shortcomings of the Clarin Canal have not been cleaned. For example, this will still dissatisfy the two countries, and even lead the split in the sub -security.The government, the scale of infrastructure is huge, and is easily locked by the separation of Thailand, with hidden safety hazards.
In addition, Luqiao's strategic impact on China, the United States and India in Asia Pacific is no less than that of the canal, because the shipping of the Malacca Strait will also challenge the regional interests of the United States and India.question.Moreover, Beijing has long been promoted to reduce its dependence on the Malacca Strait through the promotion of the China -Pakistani Economic Corridor, which has made Beijing's willingness to invest in the Claru Bridge lower than eight years ago.Therefore, whether the Luqiao plan can be implemented, the answer has to be seen, but it is certain that the obstacles faced by Bangkok in this plan are actually comparable to the Clarin River.There are fewer sages in 300 years.
The author is the Malaysian current affairs commentator
Researcher of Rasman University International Research Center
