Source: Taiwan Zhongshi News Network
Author: Ye Jiaxing
Since the reform and opening up in mainland China in 1979, from the early attraction of Taiwanese businessmen and Hong Kong business manufacturing industries, to the development of "globalization" in the 1990s, it has gradually become a world factory., Development achievements.However, when the economic volume jumped to the world's second, and the processing and foundry model slowly moved towards the economic growth path of high -end development, the world's first hegemon United States finally couldn't sit still.The United States has decided to adjust its long -term relationship with the mainland to change to the containing strategy. First, a large -scale scientific and technological warfare first launched a large -scale trade tariff war in 2018.
From global outsourcing to "Friends Outsourcing", the geopolitical footsteps adjusted by the United States have forced politics to enter the board of directors' agenda, and well -known large factories have been forced to adjust the global supply chain.But 5 years have passed quickly. According to the previous Zhouwa Street Journal, the Chinese factory is relocating. The destination is not the information of the CEIC cites quoted by India or Mexico.The exports and growth rates of 15 provinces and cities inland in China are higher than that of India, Mexico and Vietnam, three potential world factories challengers.
Since the beginning of 2018, the increase in exports of inland provinces and cities in China has reached 94%of the surprisingly, surpassing exports of India 41%in the same period, 43%of Mexican exports, and 56%of Vietnam's exports.If the growth rate may be distorted due to the altitude of the basis, then we can compare the absolute amount of the year as of August this year: the total exports of inland provinces and cities in China reached 630 billion U.S. dollars, which is also much higher than that of India ($ 425 billion) in the same period ($ 425 billion)The exports of Mexico (US $ 59 billion) and Vietnam ($ 346 billion).
Report quoting Professor Gordon Hanson, an economist of Harvard University, stated that "China's production capacity is too large, and the world cannot get rid of dependence on China for a long time. I believe it is foreseeable that it is foreseeable.In the future, China will still be the main participants in the global manufacturing industry. "In the papers published recently, Hansen has also discussed the possibility of more manufacturing inland inland inland.
Therefore, although under the influence of geopolitics, supply chain reorganization, foreign demand and other factors, the overall exports of mainland China have been negatively growing for many months.However, the main export decline impact is concentrated in coastal provinces, including Guangzhou and Shenzhen, Ningbo and Shanghai, Qingdao and Tianjin in the south, Ningbo and Shanghai, Qingdao and Tianjin in the northeast.In the influence, the economy of some coastal cities has unavoidable reverse winds.However, the long -lasting period may also help the social development balance in the coast and inland areas in China.
Of course, China's coastal provinces are still a heavy town of the global manufacturing industry. In the first year of August, the total exports of goods reached 2M 700 billion US dollars.However, due to the strategy of the United States, the total trade in China and the United States in the first year of this year has shrunk by 8.7%. Therefore, the United States has lagged behind ASEAN (Asia Gyan) and the European Union, and retired as the third largest trading partner of the mainland.The trade territory is reorganized, and the historical long river winds.In the past, the coastal coastal was the front line of exports of the sea power.The front line.
In addition, the exports of inland areas are not exactly the transfer of coastal production stocks, and there are new production increasing.Including the increase in electromechanical and automobile exports to many countries in Russia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Southeast Asia, they are re -reshaping in mainland China ’s foreign trade cycle. In addition, under the long -term development strategy of the Belt and Road Initiative, the field of exchanges will not be limited to goods trade.We see more and more outstanding Central Asia, Southeast Asia, and even young students in the Middle East and Russia in Hong Kong's universities, symbolizing that more cultural and civilized exchanges in the future will continue in the next generation of young rookies.
In mainland China, the world's factories have changed, but it can also be said that it has not changed, because it is actually adjusting the direction of a more regional balance.As for the United States?Can the supply chain re -constructed by "Youkan Outsourcing" alleviate the long -lasting high inflation pressure in China?Can the federal subsidy semiconductor and the electric vehicle industry really create the glory of "making in the United States"?Can Johla's Samsung and TSMC set up a sustainable operation in localization?In the United States, the United States, the wealthy and the poor, the deterioration of the rich and the poor, the deterioration of the rich and the poor, the racial conflict and the party's opposition, and the poor social governance today, can China be able to successfully return to the major manufacturing country after World War II?
(Author is associate professor of the Department of Finance of the Chinese University of Hong Kong)
