Russian President Putin spent the best week, and we witnessed Putin's abnormally satisfied days.On October 7th, Putin's birthday, Harahas, Palestinian radicals, sent the most valuable birthday gift -launched an unprecedented sudden attack on Israel and fired thousands of rockets.Of course, Russia has not participated in conflict, and it loves peace as Iran.In the sudden outbreak of war, such as Hamas's situation, the goal may not actually eliminate the enemy, and the real meaning must be harvested in other aspects.The most helpful method to answer this question is to learn history.An old Latin may better interpret the conflict: "IS Fecit, CUI Product" (the perpetrator is the beneficiary), Russia is the main beneficiary of this conflict.

The polarization of the world is accelerating, and Israel's counterattack will be cruel, which will destroy the peace talks with Saudi Arabia, and may trigger a large -scale conflict in the Middle East again.However, this chaos is beneficial to Russia, because the world's attention will be transferred from the Ukrainian battlefield, which is not as interesting as the bomb cast by Ukraine civilians as the fierce conflict of the Middle East.History tells us that the United States cannot monitor more than a conflict at the same time, and the threat to major allies in the Middle East will inevitably disperse the United States' attention to Donbas and Crimea.The United States may re -assign military and financial assistance to Ukraine.

In addition to the United States, in the process of aid in the West, another very critical country is Poland.So far, the political turmoil that the country that supports Ukraine's most supporting Ukraine is a pleasant melody for the Cremlin decision makers.

Recently, the two most important military commanders in Poland resigned, and news reports said that more core figures in the Polish army would be prepared to resign.The general's resignation, especially a few days before the Congress election on October 15, obviously had important political significance.At present, the election results are still not determined. The military's non -trusted votes proposed by the Minister of Defense and the entire government may lead to the risk of failure and the Justice Party in the election. Especially because the party is different from any other political parties, the military expansion issues are different from any other party.Poly -placed in the primary position -Poland plans to raise military expenditure to 4%of the GDP (GDP) next year, and is purchasing weapons and equipment at an unprecedented scale.

Poland's upcoming election has further exacerbated the differentiation between the two factions.Just two weeks ago, the opposition successfully convened nearly one million demonstrators to the central center of Warsaw, Poland to participate in the huge demonstrations (interesting that the official media estimated that the number of protesters was 100,000).There are differences in almost all aspects, including Poland's status in the European Union, the status and influence of the church in the country, the existence of the country in economics and judicial, and the right to abortion in women.Of course, the controversy is also reflected in the Ukrainian issue. Whether it is limited to the generous aid plan for Ukrainian refugees and whether it is imported from Ukraine is also the focus of disputes.

In the fierce election atmosphere, some analysts believe that the unbreakable friendship between Poland and Ukraine has begun to crack.Even the Kremlin is satisfied, just like a few days ago, a Polish neighbor Slovaka's open -pro -Russian party won the election.However, it is necessary to emphasize that in Poland, all parties participating in the election have announced the support of Ukraine to fight for independence and territorial integrity.This seems to be the only common position that can generally unite the political classes of Poland.If Russia is expected to kick with champagne for the Polish election results, it is completely wrong.

Author Piotr Karpinski is Polish

Studying Chinese at Warsaw University and Beijing Normal University

Entering Chinese translation

Original Chinese as Chinese