Zhu Zhiqun: Look at Taiwan from the fatigue of the Ukrainian war

Source: Zhongshi News Network

Author: Zhu Zhiqun

The Russian and Ukraine War has been more than one and a half years, causing huge losses to both sides, especially Ukraine.Although the United States and NATO are still continuing to fight the agency war through Ukraine to further weaken Russia's power, with the time of time, the West has now developed war fatigue.The sound of the government in the United States and other Western countries has questioned why the government continues to fund the war is getting higher and higher.

After the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the international community also paid more attention to the Taiwan Strait.Recently, Ukraine's "war fatigue" made people immediately think of Taiwan.What if the United States and Europe have reduced support for Ukraine, what are the symbols of both sides of the Taiwan Strait?Is the U.S.'s commitment to Taiwan reliable?Will the theory of the United States look up further?Are Beijing encouragement?These problems cannot be ignored.

Sure enough, Ukraine and Taiwan are essentially different. The biggest difference is that Ukraine and Russia are two countries that are recognized by the United Nations, including the United Nations.The country is not unified yet.

The DPP government of Taiwan held a ceremony on October 10 to celebrate the "112nd anniversary of the founding of the Republic of China".Former President Ma Ying -jeou was dissatisfied with the Cai government called the English "Taiwan National Day" (Taiwan National Day) and sneaked the "Taiwan independence", so he announced a high -profile refusal to attend the "Double Ten Ten Congress" this year.Later, many Blue Army people responded, and the Kuomintang also held a flag -raising ceremony to celebrate the "National Day of the Republic of China".

I do n’t understand Chinese history, do not understand the blue -green dispute between Taiwan today, or those who do not understand the meaning of Chinese may not figure out the mystery, and many people do not understand why they cannot be said to be "Taiwan National Day."

Although the Chinese government, the government of the People's Republic of China, will not recognize the "Republic of China" government, as long as Taiwan officials still agree with the Chinese or "Republic of China", that is, it is the nine of the first China.The two consensus, there will be no fierce fighting between the two sides of the strait.On the contrary, if Taiwan officially denies the two sides of the strait, or the pursuit of Taiwan ’s independence or even blatantly claims that Taiwan is independent, it will not be too peaceful between the two sides of the strait, and there will be a place of mountains.

Lai Qingde, an independent Taiwan -independent worker, recently adjusted his caliber and said that if the 2024 election win, he will not promote Taiwan independence, and there is no need to promote Taiwan independence, because Taiwan is independent.Lai is indeed abolishing the independence of Taiwan by borrowing the name of the "Republic of China".If Taiwan is independent, what day is Taiwan's "National Day"?Please do not use Double Ten sections to confuse international audiovisual.

For the United States, due to the competition in the United States, Taiwan is more valuable than Ukraine.Frankly speaking, the United States can make Ukraine fail, but will do everything possible to keep Taiwan and mainland China.Some politicians in the United States claim that "stop funding Ukraine is a death penalty for Taiwan, because Russia's victory in Ukraine may encourage China to attack Taiwan." This statement is wrong, misleading and unwise.

The error of this statement is that it underestimates Taiwan's strategic value in the United States and the strategy of playing Taiwan in the United States in China and the United States.It is misleading because it assumes that mainland China will soon launch an attack on Taiwan.However, there was no sign of unifying the use of force in mainland China in the short term.In fact, the Ukrainian war does not affect the long -term goal of the realization of the realization of peace with Taiwan.

Some people think that as long as the United States continues to armed Taiwan, mainland China will dare not use force.This is a wise idea. It not only misjudges the official determination of Beijing, but also is actually counterproductive.The stronger the United States' support for Taiwan, the more martial arts in Taiwan, the more likely it is to use force to achieve unification.

Washington must act with caution, balance its desire to support Taiwan and commitment to a China.No matter how much the United States wants to support Taiwan's democracy, it should not make Beijing feel that the peaceful and unified door has been closed.From the perspective of Beijing, it is completely unacceptable to make Taiwan permanent division.

The fatigue of the Ukrainian war has a little impact on Beijing's long -term goal.Beijing will promote the gradual integration of the two sides of the strait according to its own steps.If it is not provoked, Beijing will not use force against Taiwan.As the official Chinese policy shows, the Chinese do not hit the Chinese.For those who think that Beijing will soon be martial arts Taiwan, instead of worrying about when the PLA will attack Taiwan, it is better to warn politicians how to avoid anger in Beijing.

(the author is a professor and political scientific professor of international relations and politics)