Since the implementation of the presidential election in Taiwan in 1996, previous candidates have visited the United States. Whoever obtains the support of the United States can finally be elected and tried it repeatedly.Therefore, candidates who are running for Taiwan regards US factors as the key to success or failure.

It is about 100 days before the Presidential election in Taiwan in 2024. Who will win is one of the popular topics that everyone talks about recently.Taiwan's 2024 election is special. It is a election when the global economy is sluggish; it is a election that will vote after the epidemic is eased and the public will vote without restrictions;A election.Of course, we know that there are many factors that affect the results of the 2024 election in Taiwan. Here are mainly analyzing from three levels.

Mobilization of major political parties

Generally speaking, mobilization can be divided into consensus mobilization and action mobilization.Consensus mobilization refers to the process that Taiwan's major political parties strive to support their goals and perspectives, and action mobilization refers to the process of inviting and urging the public to participate in election voting.From the perspective of consensus mobilization, the DPP's goals and views are clear. The ultimate goal is "independence". The current most realistic goal is to maintain the status quo.Although "independence" is not necessarily acceptable to the people of Taiwan, according to the internal poll data of Taiwan, more than 60 % of the Taiwanese people accept "maintaining the status quo".From this point of view, the DPP's goals and views are to win the support of the people.

The consensus between the Kuomintang, the People's Party, and the independent candidate Guo Taiming is "removed the Democratic Progressive Party", but it is a vague consensus.Seizing the right to speak through the topic is never the mainstream practice of Taiwan elections, because no matter how bad the leaders do, as long as they mobilize properly, they can be re -elected.The Kuomintang, People's Party, and Guo Taiming's practice of dealing with consensus can be said to be a failure: First, the Kuomintang cannot mobilize Guo Taiming's power with consensus to reach consensus and finally let Guo Taiming go to the election independently. Second"Consensus", but the Kuomintang may only be willing to let Ke Wenzhe's partner vice president, and the interest distribution of the two parties is difficult to reach consensus.

In addition, the action mobilization has always been the strength of the DPP. It is good at making things to urge the people to vote and use the manufacturing incident to achieve the effect of the people support the DPP, such as Chen Shui -bian's two bullets in 2004; in 2014, the sun flowerAnti -service trade movement and so on.It is still in the stage of seeing the election through polls, and has not yet entered the mobilization.From the historical judgment of the past election, the DPP has been handy in terms of mobilization. Even in the face of the powerful "Korean stream" in 2020, it still successfully won the Taiwan election.

During the mobilization stage, if the Kuomintang cannot play the advantages of the local nine -in -one elections in 2022, integrate the current local forces, mobilize more people to vote, and unite the forces of all parties, the DPP will eventually win the election.

American factors

For previous Taiwan elections, candidates have the practice of visiting the United States, and this time is no exception.Among the four candidates, Ke Wenzhe visited the United States in April this April this this this April, and was the earliest action.After the polls have been in the second place, he visited the United States for the second time on October 1.Obviously, he did not achieve much results in visiting the United States in April, so he strived to use the opportunity to visit the United States for the United States to fight for US support.Although the Kuomintang candidate Hou Youyi specializes in farming in Taiwan and has less with the United States, he also visited the United States for support in September.The Democratic Progressive Party candidate Lai Qingde used transit to the United States for visit. Although the United States did not pay attention to Cai Yingwen's transit to the United States, it basically achieved its purpose.Independent candidate Guo Taiming, because of the businessman's identity, is convenient for visiting the United States. After the intention of running, he has visited the United States twice, but it is still unknown how much results.

Since Taiwan's direct election in 1996, candidates have visited the United States for previous candidates. Whoever obtains the support of the United States can finally be elected and tried it repeatedly.Therefore, candidates who are running for Taiwan regards US factors as the key to success or failure.What the United States needs is Taiwan, which is moving towards its strategic interests. Although Lai Qingde is not necessarily the strongest compared with Ke Wenzhe, Hou Youyi and Guo Taiming, in the context of the increasing competition between China and the United States and the increasingly intense relationship, the United States needs more people in the United States.Taiwan, which enlighten the party, is not an ambiguous Kuomintang and the People's Party.From this perspective, Lai Qingde's victory is more likely.

Mainland China Factors

Compared with the weak situation in the past, mainland China has a small influence on the Taiwan 2024 election.

The first is the choice of "one China" and "maintaining the status quo".Although the Kuomintang, the People's Party, and Guo Taiming recognize the "one China" to some extent, they are all conditional recognition. They are more inclined to maintain the status quo without meeting their conditions.The DPP is not capable of achieving independence, which is actually passively maintaining the status quo.However, the ultimate goal of mainland China is to unify the country, but the current situation can only be maintained by default.Therefore, maintaining the status quo has become the largest number of equivalences, and there is a small space in politics.

The second is that economic means are difficult.After Tsai Ing -wen began the second term, it took restrictions on the trade of mainland China, implemented the new southbound policy, and weakened the influence of the rapid development of the mainland market and economy on Taiwan.With the increasingly tight Sino -US relations and the impact of the epidemic, according to the reports of Taiwanese companies released by the US CSIS think tank at the end of 2022, a report from the increasingly tense Sino -US relations reports that 25.7%of the interviewed Taiwan enterprises saidBusiness is transferred to China.At present, the global economy is weak, and the economic development of mainland China is also being adjusted and self -rescue. It is difficult to use economic means to play a role in Taiwan elections.

Third, Taiwan's stressful mentality of using military forces in mainland China has become calm.In the past, the military exercises of mainland military forces in the Taiwan Strait area were not only nervous, but even the people and the media were correspondingly nervous.Last year, Pelosi, the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taiwan. The Taiwan Strait experienced a tight state. Although the PLA crossed the so -called "mid -line", the Taiwan Strait did not have a military conflict.Therefore, the military forces of mainland China will conduct military exercises in the Taiwan Strait area. Although the Taiwan military has responded, the people of Taiwan and the media have relatively reduced concerns. Criticizing the weakening of the official voice of Taiwan, it seems to be accustomed to the stressful mentality.Therefore, the impact of the use of military forces on Taiwan's elections is slight.

The author is a researcher at Hong Kong International Issues