Source: Bloomberg
The Chinese financial market has entered the National Day holiday market since Friday, and the foreign exchange market will not be reopen until October 9.In the shore market, it will usher in an opportunity to breathe, but the offshore exchange rate will enter more than a week of single flying time. Under the suppression of strong US dollars, the lack of domestic exchange rates and intermediate prices anchor offshoretest.
"Due to the lack of intermediate prices, the anchoring effect is reduced, and the daily fluctuations of offshore RMB may increase," Alvin Tan, the Asian foreign exchange strategy director of the Royal Bank of Canada, said in an interview, but he expects that CNH dailyThe closing price can still be stable, and the regulatory layer will also maintain the stable exchange rate as depending on the situation.
In the early morning on Thursday, the shore was raised by 0.05%to 7.3091 yuan, and the offshore rose 0.1%to 7.3168.
Since June this year, the Central Bank of China has released a very strong stable signal by setting up the intermediate price of market transaction prices and model forecasting average. RecentlyThe lower limit of the depreciation of the period is set around 7.315 yuan. At the same time, it is issued by issuing offshore tickets, tightening the liquidity of CNH, and a down -reduced foreign exchange deposit reserve rate.
However, the Bloomberg US dollar index reached a new high on Wednesday on Wednesday, and the yield rate of US debt has risen and supported by the end of the month.High market expectations.
The situation of spreading between China and the United States has not changed. A series of measures to support the economy in China still need to play a role. The strong US dollar continues to bring heavy pressure on the RMB exchange rate.RMB at home and abroad has fallen by more than 5%since the beginning of the year, living in the middle reaches among the AFC.However, thanks to the stabilization rate measures, the cumulative domestic and foreign RMB in the third quarter fell less than 0.8%, and it performed in the AFC only inferior to Hong Kong dollars.
"The most stressful point has passed. Although the pressure may continue, the situation has improved due to the shortage of interest differences in the short CNH," said Zhou Hao, chief economist of Guotai Junan.Consider the exchange rate level of 7.30 yuan.
