Guo Liangping: A new stage of Sino -US relations

The core difficulties in Sino -US relations are ideological and political systems, as well as a series of values and policy differences derived from this.These have spawned the so -called "systemic competition".Institutional competition is not absolute.It turns out that the system and ideology of both parties have problems, and they are not enough to win the world. They must reform.

China and the United States are entering the stage of exploring a new foundation for all -sides.The six -year limit is targeted at where the border of possibility is basically the United States. China also generally understands the new international environment and its position and role that can play in it.Finding a foundation of a more stable and lasting new relationship is beneficial to both parties.

The first and second strong economy, the second and third largest population, the largest developed countries and the largest developing countries, the first and second military powers, all have a complete large -scale killing weapon.The aerospace country has a huge market attraction.These conditions determine that both cannot disappear each other, but the effect of weakening the other party is limited, and it is almost impossible for comprehensive decoupling.

At the same time, the extensive common interests and space space have been next to it, and both can choose to enter at any time, thereby improving bilateral relations.If the trend of polarization of the world is continuously strengthened, it will not be significant in a multi -pole world.Moreover, so far, there have been no signs that China has global ambitions.

China in 2013 compared with China in 2023, there is no major change, but Sino -US relations at the two time points cannot be the same.This shows that it is a cognitive attitude and a profit -making relationship that promotes changes in bilateral relations.The United States' embargo, targeting, decourse, and blocking of China is mainly due to suffocation and prevalence of the future; but what it does to China in the future is not completely grasped, and it is for granted.

Extreme testing period Near end

From President Trump, the limits of the United States are often disappointed.Many ordinary economic and trade relations are suddenly politicized, mutually beneficial and win -win into zero sum, and cooperation coexistence becomes you to die. At least emotionally.As two nuclear powers, such a relationship is obviously inaccessible, because not only does it be possible to destroy each other, but they have to cooperate in many international things.How much is the emotional of this "limit" and how many calculations are promoted?I am afraid that the former is mostly (at least in the early stages), because its effect is not good, and it is often counterproductive, such as the Huawei effect of the chip ban.

The US economy has recovered, the economic situation in China is very bad, and the prospects are unknown.This has made the United States conditions and reasons to continue to be relentlessly for a period of time. Until the situation in China has stabilized, the prospects are clear.In the era of globalization, the complex connections between China and the world's various economies have also made a certain limit for the Chinese economy, because this will drag the world economy.The layout of China's huge naval ships and shore -based weapons allowed the Yellow Navy of the United States, Canada, and South Korea to end in September 14.The United States is probably aware that the past in another field is unpredictable.Huawei's beautiful counterattack by Mate 60 Pro as the start of a series of new products has changed the rules and revenue structures in a large area of strategic competition.Similar situations will continue to occur, prompting the end of the limit test period, both sides have enthusiasm to seek a model with stable bilateral relations.

adjustment has begun

Trump can be described as "killing one thousand enemies and damageing 800" by the Chinese side at the beginning of the limit.The dominant force at this stage is more emotional: the nightmare that may decline in the United States, hatred for the Communist country, fear of China's rise, and concerns about the change of world order.The emotional leading policy generally does not last long, and there will be reflection, and the comparative calculation of the comparison of targeted costs and stability and cooperation income will gradually restore.

After the Bayeng government came to power, the rationality of China ’s policy rose.It divides the China policy into three sends: confrontation, competition, and cooperation; great strategy is not a direct confrontation, but indirectly affects China's behavior by changing China's strategic environment.

It has made a very pleasant guarantee for China: it does not seek to change the system of China, does not seek to oppose China by strengthening the relationship between the alliance, inadvertently conflict with China, pursue a long -term Chinese policy, does not support "Taiwan independence ", happy to see China's success, etc.However, China believes that the Bayeng government has different words and deeds, and must "listen to its words and watch its deeds", because in the actual policy of the United States, competition is obviously the main theme, which almost defines all Sino -US relations.But this promise is still one of the possible basis for the relationship between the two countries.If the limit of tentativeness does not work, you have to return to these principles, these principles will gain vitality and can play an important role in stabilizing the relationship between the two countries.

What is "systemic competition"?

The US politicians have frequently visited China since this year, and the secret and unreasonable high -level talks have been held from time to time. For example, the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and the national security adviser to talk to China from September 16th to 17th.Defense Secretary; the United States proposed to "guardrails" for the competition for both parties to prevent out of control, which reflects both parties that the danger of being inseparable from each other and the evil of the great powers.It is from these talks and contact that the foundation of new Sino -US relations is slowly appearing.

The core difficulties in Sino -US relations are ideological and political systems, and a series of values and policy differences derived from it.These have spawned the so -called "systematic competition" -the multi -faceted and lasting competition between the two countries, the scope exceeds specific problems, covering all aspects of the relationship between the two countries: ideological differences, economic competition, military and strategic hedging, technology, technology, and technologyCompetition, geopolitical influence, information war, public opinion war, etc. affect international order and security dynamics.The European Union also stepped up, and the published strategic outlook documents also listed China as "systematic competitors."To a large extent, it shows "consciousness" and reflects the changes in cognitive attitude rather than the change of interest.

System competition is not absolute.It turns out that the system and ideology of both parties have problems, and they are not enough to win the world. They must reform.Moreover, the big goals of the two sides are basically consistent: growth, climate, security, stability, innovation, employment, etc.These greatly reduced ideological irregularities and made the conflict cannot reach the intensity of the Cold War.Liberalism is more attractive in ideology, but this is mainly in terms of values.Its advantages in theory and system are not great.The "core value of socialism" advocated by the mainland government is "rich, democratic, civilized, and harmonious (national level); freedom, equality, fairness, rule of law (social level); patriotism, dedication, integrity, friendliness (personal level)".These are not conflicting with liberal values, but only a few more liberalism should also have value.So far, the attractiveness of the Chinese system is far less than that of the Western democratic system, although the former's performance is often better than the latter.However, the latter is generally consistent with its values, and some of China's systems and policies often conflict with the values it advocated, giving people a set and feeling of making a set.Many shortcomings and problems belong to the growth process, and it is expected to disappear naturally.

But some are connected to the official ideology. It is more difficult to change with theoretical basis -must have enough theoretical innovation.

China is not as western as expected. It can only blame the expectations of unrealistic expectations, and cannot be used as a reason for China.China is very different from the Mao Zedong era and should be able to find different ways to get along.China does not have new curses in territory, all of which are old problems, most of which can be traced back to the mainland government's administration.The United States claims not to seek to change China, but China must take the initiative to change. By deepening reform and opening up, it makes it easier for countries around the world to understand, accept and recognize it; to obtain soft power through high standards.This is the reliable foundation for lasting peace and cooperation, which is much more effective, lasting and comprehensive than the development of military power.

Balance point or comfortable area?

Emotional, good and evil, attitude, male hormones, and too much modularThe concept of passing or telescopic range has played a great role in deteriorating Sino -US relations.The concepts of national security, interests, systemic competition, threats, autocracy, democracy, freedom and other concepts are often used by politicians to achieve many other goals.They have a large degree of telescopic, causing the telescopicness of Sino -US relations.Reduce these concepts so that they can get consensus and relatively stable bilateral relations.Elimination will lead to conspiracy everywhere, threats everywhere, the hostile forces fly all over the sky, as well as the mentality of pillowing and destroying this food.

The tough policies of the United States and its allies also have a good side: help China better integrate into the international community.China is a big civilized country, and it is natural, but it often causes unexpected rebounds: it does not quite understand the expectations of other countries, what can be done, what is best to do, and how high it takes.After this competition, it should be able to understand the ideas and reasoning logic of different civilized countries.In this way, China should become easier to get along with democratic countries, and vice versa, that is, the so -called does not know each other.More importantly, the two countries should try to reach a tacit understanding of international division of labor in a compete.Before China was unable to manage the world, there was no need to compete with the United States in all aspects, take a step back in the sky and the sky, and can continue to take a car.

For China, after being bullied for a long time, the hype "China counterattack" is natural, but finding a relatively stable and lasting bilateral relations foundation is more important.revenge.With force majeure, the stability obtained by the balance of strength is fragile and short; finding a new foundation can enter a more stable and comfortable area.So far, there are more primary instincts and less rationality in the deterioration of Sino -US relations.Beasty can only be suppressed by reason.

The reason to promote modernization is the gift of the Enlightenment. Perhaps the two sides need a new enlightenment movement to rescue themselves from the evil of narrow nationalism and human nature.

The author is a senior researcher at the East Asia Research Institute of the National University of Singapore