Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao
Author: Guan Zhongran
Hon Hai founder Guo Taiming announced last week as an independent candidate to run for Taiwan elections early next year.The movement of Guo was like a storm, and it was stormy for the election.But when one more candidate joined the team, is the election situation even more chaotic, or is it clear?
Discuss the impact of Guo Taiming's announcement of the election, first "back" to about half a year ago and April, Guo Gaoquan participated in the Kuomintang primary election (accurate is to conquer the Kuomintang with Hou Youyi).At that time, he publicly apologized for "leaving the Kuomintang for four years ago" (leaving the Kuomintang four years ago "(Guo retired from the party in the primaries to South Korea's Yu in the primaries four years ago).By mid -May of this year, the Kuomintang decided to call Hou Youyi to fight; Guo Taiming, who was defeated at the time, generously congratulated Hou, and said, "The promise will be able to support the mayor Hou's victory and defeat the 2024 election."From bowing to apology to showing that he would keep his promise, and then publicly abandoned his promise last week, Guo Taiming's position was erratic and fragile.
Guo said whether the actual effect of uniting in the wild power is this
Let's put down logical thinking temporarily and try to understand the purpose of Guo Taiming's election.According to Guo's latest statement, he announced that his election was to unite in the wild power, just like his name in the press conference earlier, to form a "mainstream public opinion alliance."He believes that "getting off the Democratic Progressive Party" is the mainstream public opinion, and to make this mainstream public opinion be manifested, it is necessary to unite in the opposition party to achieve the next year's presidential election.As for his acting as an independent, he has the role of solidarity, that is, unite the Kuomintang Hou Youyi and the people's party Ke Wenzhe.The above is Guo's lecture, but is the actual effect?
At this time, we might as well restart the normal logical thinking to see the distance between Guo's statement and reality.From the results of different polls, the Democratic Progressive Party Lai Qingde was ranked first, Ke Wenzhe second, Hou Youyi third.Under the single -seater and single -ticket system election system with only one round of "winning multiple tickets", the closer the candidate's position is, then the similar candidates will naturally compete with each other to form internal fighting.
Among the three original candidates, Ke Wenzhe's role position has always been very interesting, because he has the background of the party's entry into the party in the early days of his politics (the DPP supports the mayor of Taipei in 2014)The votes of green and young people have always been attractive.However, Ke later no longer cooperated with the DPP, and continued to be ambiguous in cross -strait relations. In addition, Ke Wenzhe and the Kuomintang have common status and common enemies. This is the mainstream public opinion that Guo Taiming said in the wild.Therefore, during this year's election, the "blue and white match" statement continued to be reported, hoping that it can be integrated to deal with the DPP together.Essence
Simply put, if Ke Wenzhe and Hou Youyi can really unite, the first problem will be that the votes that the two add up are enough to win Lai Qingde?But before this problem, there is another more important question: Is there really a possibility of Ke He Hou?
It is impossible for integration
Not everything in the world can be integrated into a "掂" urine beef ball like the urine shrimp and beef balls.Simply thinking from the selection, unity in the wild is of course a good way to increase victory; but maybe imagine, is there a big difference between Ke Wenzhe and Lai Qingde for a deep blue supporter?Even if there is a difference, is this enough to make deep blue voters really support Ke?Well, even if the deep blue chosen people are willing to invest in Ke Wenzhe, as the largest Kuomintang in the wild party, is it willing to retreat to the second line of the deputy?
Furthermore, for Ke Lai, he has always emphasized that he is a "white power" that is non -blue and non -blue.Of course, when cross -strait relations are always the largest problem in Taiwan, it is always a big question whether there is such a "white" space in fact.But to achieve "non -blue non -green", Ke Wenzhe and the people's party themselves must not be integrated and not become part of blue or green.In summary, the idea of "blue and white integration" is actually difficult to succeed.
Take a step back: Even if it is really possible to "integrate", is Guo now joining the battle and independent election, is it really a good way to promote integration?Guo's voting source must come from Hou Youyi and Ke Wenzhe. For the DPP, Guo's approach is really the strongest assist.It is absolutely creative to join the team to join the team.If Guo is convinced that he has a certain degree of support and hopes to unite and grow in the wild camp, the easiest way is to join the existing camp as a deputy; even if you can't unite everyone, you can at least bring positive positive camps he selected.The effect is more common than the practice of the current election.But it is clear that Guo is unwilling to be deputy.The so -called integration is to say that you want to yield to himself, "let the elder brother do four years first".
Now Guo Taiming announced the election, and there are still two months before the formal becoming a candidate. On the one hand, he must strive for sufficient signing (about 290,000 people) for himself., Milk Tea ", do the so -called" integration ".To reach the threshold of the company, candidates have done it in the past. With Guo's financial resources and strength, it should not be difficult to achieve; but in November, when Guo continued to run for the candidate, he could not persuade him to retreat.The words of Hou or Ke, then Guo Taiming must be more clear about how to "unite" and "in the wild" through running.At that time, Guo Taiming and Hou Youyi (even Ke Wenzhe) in the election would not be the Green Camp Lai Qingde, but to compete for each other of the same blue camp ticket.At that time, these candidates will inevitably attack each other.
Ke Wenzhe's performance is not the same
The election is not enough for half a year. Although the time is short, it is still full of variables. The morale and election between political parties are undulating.The DPP has only experienced the defeat of local elections not long ago.The advantage of winning.On the one hand, of course, it is related to Guo Taiming's chaos, but on the other hand, the largest opponent, Ke Wenzhe, also appeared in stamina, especially the "concert" held earlier.The people are embarrassing.
Political figures and political leaders are the most important, which have always been proposed and enforced by policy concepts.When members of the Hong Kong Legislative Council knew that they would retreat and gave up their "good voices", Ke Wenzhe, who was full of election experience and knew democratic elections, really practiced singing and singing. I only care about you.
As an onlooker, the only certainty is that no matter how bad the wild camp at this moment, and how the DPP will be alone. In the next four months, countless surprises can happen.Just like in the past few months, since Guo Taiming can "pop in and pops up and then bounce in", then it will "pop up" again, and it is not surprising at all.
