The outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War has exceeded 18 months, and the situation of the war ups and downs. The Russian army was briefly aggressive at the beginning of the war.This summer counterattack the gray face.Russia has destroyed international peace, but also "maintains" international peace. Although it is subjective, it objectively establishes new rules for national disputes in the future: unless the self -defense or the United Nations Security Council authorized, resolving national disputes with war means that there is no longer having national disputes.Any legitimacy is no longer accepted by human society.

The evolution of the war was beyond the expectations of both Russia and Ukraine and countries because there were four misjudgments.

The first misjudgment: Russian military speed victory

On February 24, 2022, the Russian army implemented the "Heart Assault" tactics in the three directions of the east, south, and north.Support and control the President of the Russian Russia, and then through the so -called national referendum under the muzzle, forcibly build the "Slavic National State Confederation" with Ukraine and White Ross to build the two countries as a strategic buffer to resist NATO.The territory of the Soviet Union could not go back. Putin, if Putin completed the "Slavic Unification" macro, is a national hero.

Western countries generally despise the Ukraine before the war, thinking that it is vulnerable.The information disclosed by the United States shows that the penetration of the Russian political and military circles is very successful and obtains detailed information about the Russian army's upcoming invasion.Director of the Central Intelligence Bureau visited Russia to warn that Secretary of State Brills and others repeatedly persuaded Zellegski to leave Kiev before the war, transferred to Lavff, which was near Poland, and was rejected by Zelleiski.

In January 2022, Germany only promised to help 5,000 military helmets in Ukraine, and was mocked by Ukraine, allies, and Western media.Although there are two psychological burdens of the origin of the origin of the World War I, there are also factors that despise the unusual use of the Ukraine. Now that they are defeated quickly, sending more weapons is also drifting.Almost the world is generally believed that within a week, the Russian army will overcome Ji Fu.The European Union also refused to provide military aid.

The Russian army was weak and light, and the original shape was revealed.The confidence in the United States and Europe has increased greatly, and it has quickly decided large -scale assistance.Zeelianzki and Ukraine built himself as "democratic guards" and "freestyle forts", which received the support of the West and the general sympathy of world public opinion.

The second misjudgment: the Russian army's defeat

In the fall of 2022, the Urpicious Army launched a sharp counterattack, prominent results, quickly liberated tens of thousands of square kilometers of territory.According to the ground, it seriously affects its national morale and the hearts of the people.

Since the beginning of the war, Russia has invested nearly 100 billion US dollars in military expenditures, and tens of thousands of soldiers have been killed, including nearly 10 major generals.Country; a more united European Union and NATO; a United States, which is more consolidated by Western leaders; a German that has accelerated its military rise again in Europe; NATO's neutral Sweden and Finland joined further eastward; many rounds of sanctions in the Western world; Russian central bankAt least 300 billion US dollars of foreign exchange reserves were frozen; the younger brothers in the Central Asian backyard dared to hit or leave Putin on top of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, the SCO Summit and other occasions; the world is generally condemned.

As a result, the outside world has declined with the Russian army, but the author has repeatedly analyzed that Putin and the Russian army are "strategic defeat and undefeated tactics."

The so -called strategic defeat refers to Putin's claim that the goal of "de -Naziization and de -militaryization" is impossible to achieve.Strong, the NATO has further expanded, which is more threatened from Russia and weaker national strength than before the war.

The so -called tactical undefeated refers to the strong support of the huge nuclear arsenal side by side with the United States, which can be used to make a tie and a hard support.The United States and NATO have obvious advantages, and they dare not end up together; even if they end, they can't get back to Crimea, which is a cruel reality.Once the Russian army could not carry it, it would likely be a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine to destroy the enemy in Ukraine before the collapse. Therefore, Putin said that the West would thank the Russian army, which means that the situation was not severe enough to make him decide to use nuclear weapons.

This summer, the Ukrainian army's second counterattack was two days of ice and fire for the first time. After three months, the military and equipment were suffering heavy losses and the progress was slow.Dao defense line.NATO countries have continuously increased their assistance weapons. The Ukraine has repeatedly used drones, boats to attack Russia and even Moscow powder.

The urgent urgentity of the Ukraine is no counterattack, but instead, and the nine mechanized brigades (about 36,000 people) trained in NATO first.The exhaustion of the soldiers and no air power is the two major flaws of Wu. If 7 are killed by Russia due to positions and war consumption, then the front line has a high risk of collapse.The Russian army has gathered about 100,000 heavy soldiers in the direction of Halkov (Russia and Ukraine's common abdomen). It is always ready for "anti -counterattack", which is large -scale maneuverability.The seduce of the South Ukraine's return division will help and further expand the Eastern Occupy Zone of Wu.

The third misjudgment: Putin's fast collapse

The "Ukrainian Special Military Action" proclaimed by Putin is an aggression war that violates the second and fourth item of Article 2 and fourth item of Article 2 of the UN Charter.However, due to the "boring cycle" of the charter, the Security Council has no good restrictions on the permanent members of the country and has done nothing so far.

He desperately died, took risks, was trapped in the muddy war of aggression, carrying heavy strategic negative assets, leaving the biggest stain in his political career. Now it is difficult to ride a tiger, how to end the scene is no longer autonomous.This war was the return of the Russian Empire and the sunset of Putin.In the international community's lonely zero, many votes of the Security Council and the United Nations General Assembly, top sports events generally implemented a "restriction of Russian order".It reflects the world's hearts.

The United States led the western sanctions on strict financial, technology, energy, trade, diplomacy, etc. Russia suffered heavy losses.On March 7, 2022, the exchange rate of rubles to the US dollar plummeted to a historical lowest of 156.25: 1. On August 14 this year, it plummeted and broke through 100: 1 again.From January to July this year, government budget expenditures increased by 14%year -on -year, and oil and gas income decreased by 41.4%year -on -year.

But the Russian economy and military toughness is good. They have not been beaten and the lowest valley has been survived.This year's national defense budget doubled more than 100 billion US dollars, accounting for one -third of all public expenditures; in the second quarter, GDP increased by 4.9%year -on -year, higher than expected; the central bank responded rapidly.350 basis points to 12%; although the national mobilization is not announced, the wartime system has been launched, which is equivalent to mobilizing about 70%. The "hematopoietic" ability and speed of restoring combat power are significantly stronger than Ukraine, which only rely on NATO "blood transfusion".

Poliger's successfulness will calm down a day. Russia's mainstream public opinion and all sectors of the society support Putin, but Putin's status is more firm.According to the polls released by the All -Russian Public Opinion Research Center on June 30, 78.6%of the respondents trusted Putin, with only 17%of the dislikes, and 74.8%recognized Putin's performance performance.President during the war is easier to unite the people, although this is the war of aggression.

A considerable number of anti -Putin, anti -Russian, and anti -war people emotionally asserted that the war of aggression would be defeated, Putin must collapse, and it lost its simplicity and innocence.The war has been the battle of the Russian and Ukrainian kingdoms, and there is no second way except for the continued death of the two sides.If the battlefield is decided on the battlefield, the process of peace talks is faster and smoother.Once Russia was defeated, Putin and the current generals and senior officials who followed him will be brutally washed. Therefore, there are abnormalities in China but there will be no coup. The mainstream political and military elites have long become a community of interests and advance and retreat with Putin.

Putin will run for the president next year without suspense. The six -year term until 2030. There are already multiple clear information that strongly hints.exampleFor example, on March 20, Xi Jinping visited Russia's first discussion on the opening of the fierce material; on March 21, China and Russia jointly stated that the 2030 time was selected.

The fourth misjudgment: peaceful theory

Zelei Sky has survived the most difficult first week of war, and his confidence and Western confidence have greatly increased, and military and gold aids continue to pour.Now that the master and guests are easy, at the beginning of the war, in order to stop the loss as soon as possible, Zelei Siki publicly called for peace talks with Russia, and was put on hold by Putin. After seven months of the war, Putin publicly called for the peace talks as soon as possible.The base refuses directly.

How many years of the Russian and Ukraine War have been difficult to predict. The Soviet Union in the Afghanistan has played 10 years and the United States has been fighting for 20 years.The United States, G7, NATO, and the European Union have repeatedly stated how long it takes to support Ukraine.This is a hard -to -express political correctness on the table, which actually cannot afford to consume the same as Russia.

Zelei is mediocre before the war, the skirt is prevalent, and it is very capable during the war. For the Western "moral abduction", it is one of the strategies of Gaoming.When the huge aid is endless, when the United States and the European and Europe are tired, some small countries can no longer carry it.Next year's elections, the biggest variables will occur in Europe. Once a certain country is shaken, it will open up the gap in solidarity against Russia. It will easily grow like snowballs. The efforts of helping Ukraine will quickly decay, thereby forcing beauty and concessions.

On August 15th, Yansen, director of the Office of NATO Secretary -General, proposed that Wu Ke was exchanged for the qualifications of NATO member states by abandoning some territories of (Russia), thereby ending military conflicts.Wu Fang was extremely dissatisfied and condemned, and Yansen apologized, but still claimed that this was "the situation where Ukraine could occur in the future."He threw this point of view showing that there was a compromise forces in the West, and soon apologizing showed that this force was not mainstream at present.

From August 5th to 6th, the second round of Ukrainian issue international conferences held in Saudi Arabia are still a "Qing Talking Museum" that is far greater than the content.There is a substantial progress.The attendance of China does not mean to move closer to the West and continue to discuss on the basis of the Ukraine plan. It does not mean that the southern countries in the world have accepted this plan, and they have not accepted the draft as a peaceful negotiation.On August 24th, Article 19 of the BRICS Summit Declaration only referred to the path of African peace, avoiding the Ukrainian peace plan, not to mention support or acceptance.

Ukraine gritted his teeth for the second counterattack, to explain to the Gold Lord, to re-election for Biden, to suspend the second counterattack, and to pin the hope on NATO aid about 160 F-16 fighters. In fact, it cannot be changed.The battle is going.As far as time is concerned, the Ukraine cannot afford it. The F-16 formed the fastest combat power next spring. It is unknown whether it can be to seize the air power. In terms of locations, the airport is very headache.

If the Russian army takes off and land in Poland means that the NATO army directly participates in the war, the Russian army has the right to retaliate. The missile saturated to attack Poland airports.The United States dare not take risks, so it is even more likely to set up airports at Western Ukura to provide the patriot's missile protection. The F-16 does not have an invisible function. With the monitoring of the Russian army, it can quickly locate the airport and explode the runway.

The author is a Chinese current affairs commentator