Comment: Chinese economic slowdown in the United States and allies see opportunities a

Source: Bloomberg

Author: Shawn Donnan, Viktoria Dendrinou, Alessandra Migliaccio, Philip ALDRICK

At present, China's economy has suffered pain, and more and more countries in the United States and the Seven Power Groups (G7) are increasingly seeing deep structural problems, which may cause China and the West to disappear in geopolitics competition.

Recently, Bloomberg News has exchanged with some officials in Washington, Rome, Tokyo, and other capital cities. They have revealed such a view that the mainstream economic narratives that dominate the global capital flow for decades are rapidly reversing.Most of them demand anonymous.

If China once appeared to replace the United States, which will become the world's largest economy, then the situation has changed.More and more considering Washington in the inside and outside of Washington is that even if China has not yet entered an absolute decline, it is likely to be close to the pinnacle of strength.

U.S. President Biden revealed this increasingly enhanced mentality during the early campaign of this summer. He said that the Chinese economy has become a "time -to -time bomb" because of long -term challenges from debt to population to the population.EssenceWhen the US Minister of Commerce Raymond went to Shanghai on Tuesday, when she said from Beijing to Shanghai, the US company told her that China became more and more "inadequate."

"Traditional concepts seem to be concerned about the rise of China's unstoppable rise and transform to worrying about the decline in irreparable economic and population," said Richard Fontaine, chief executive of Washington's new American Security Center.

This view is quietly growing within the Bayeng government.In an interview with Bloomberg on the eve of visiting Beijing in June, Treasury Secretary Yellen said that China's current population decline "challenge growth and investment", and pointed out other problems, such as the surge in the unemployment rate and the landslide of the real estate industry.

U.S. officials believe that China ’s mistake is that for decades, it is ignored to increase economic opening up; although they point out that China is currently at the top or it is too early, but they believe that long -term problems will hinder the problem of long -term problems that will hinder the long -term problem hinderingEconomic Growth.Wally Adeyemo, Deputy Minister of Finance, told Bloomberg this week that "the Chinese are leading to an environment that is not favorable for foreign direct investment and foreign companies," which echoed Raymond.

G7 officials of various countries are also considering how difficult Chinese economic encounters will impact their own market.Some people are worried that if the world's most powerful growth engine will be decelerated further, it will make the prospects dull.In London, some people mentioned that the price of China's price disappears may help them curb their country's inflation.

The change of this mentality is not limited to the officialdom.The latest US diplomatic magazine articles announced that the end of China's growth miracle and the beginning of the stagnation era have a sense of sadness.

At the hearing of the US -China Economic and Security Review Commission on August 21, the primary topic of private sector analysts scrambled to talk about is economic fragility.This is a two -party committee of the United States Congress, and it has always been warned to warn China's rise.Rongding Consulting's Chinese market research director Logan Writt said in testimony that Beijing will never be convincing to win global economic overlords.

How long will the Chinese economic slowdown last?G7 officials pointed out that China has financial resources that stimulate the economy and avoid economic collapse.Although Beijing has continuously launched measures to support the real estate industry that encountered difficulties, so far, it has not yet come up with comprehensive stimulus measures. President Xi Jinping and his economic staff hopes to break the excessive debt.

If the real estate industry is fully supported and promoting growth, China's investment will increase its investment in other priority.Bloomberg Economic Research Geopippippo said that these problems will not hinder China pay for industrial policy, "but it may reduce the effectiveness of these policies."

One day China will surpass the United States to become the world's largest economy. This seems to be a matter of nailing, and now facing more and more doubts.The analysis of Bloomberg's economic research shows that with the help of the strong dollar, the US economy has recently gained its advantages in China, and this trend may seem to continue."Success can be strengthened," Dipippo wrote in the report last month.

However, officials in the United States, Europe, and Japan insist that there is no reason to celebrate their hands. They are facing their own challenges, and they are worried that China's demand will weaken the impact on the global economy and the company.

Western policy

There are signs that this psychological change has also begun to affect Western policies, although officials insist that they do not need to change their strings.

The Bayeng government announced the long -used foreign investment restrictions in August, but it was weak and narrow.This is the result of a lobbying of American investors to a certain extent.The government is also interested in restraint. Some of the reasons are that a government official said privately that the White House seeing China's increasingly hostile policy and its economic pressure may be more effective in curbing investment than any restrictions in the United States.

Officials from the capitals of Washington and European countries insisted that the slowdown in China's economy proved that after the epidemic, they worked hard to reduce their dependence on exporting powers and re -examined their effects of trade, investment and industrial policies.Although the United States has led the "risk" operation, the G7 has consensus.

Officials also said that China is still a huge challenge in many strategic fields, and it may be possible in the next many years.This means that they will strive to consolidate the alternative supply chain by strengthening their own industrial policies.

"There are two points right," Jennifer Harris, who was still working on the National Security Council of Biden earlier this year.She has been advocating the United States for strengthening trade and industrial policies for many years.The first is that "China will not be rich first", she said that the second is the potential of Beijing's industrial policy in Beijing's specific strategic industries.

The Washington government's internal and external thinkers believe that China's economic slowdown is because Beijing is unwilling to carry out major reforms and reduce the importance of the state -owned sector.

"We see an optimistic United States and frankly say that a China that faces a series of economic problems again in various aspects," said Wendy Cutler, deputy director of the Asian Association Policy Research Institute.She has long been a senior US trade negotiation official."Speaking of this, the United States does not have to be proud. This may weaken competition, but China is a powerful economic opponent."

In fact, China continues to deepen its connection with the global southern economy. Many countries are interested in joining BRICS countries, showing that its influence in emerging markets has continued to expand.

The slowdown in China's economy means a decrease in demand for commodities and other imported products, which may lead to a decrease in China's investment in geopolitics and weakening the impact, such as in Africa and other places.

This also means that China has declined as an economic partner as a rich country.Some U.S. officials believe that economic slowdown helps them to persuade Europe and other allies to leave China with suspicion.And there is no lack of evidence to support this.

Antoine Bondaz, a researcher at the French Leading Think Tank Strategic Research Foundation, said that the consequences of China's structural slowdown are that European companies choose to withdraw or make new bets on India or Southeast Asia."Europe is far away from China," he said.

China's deceleration also provides support for Germany from China to diversification."The Chinese economy does not have the speed of growth before," the new German Ambassador to Washington Ambassador Andreas Michaelis at the Strategy and International Research Center on August 28 (CSIS) activity.The Chinese market is "not as hopeful as before."

At the same time, Italy saw the opportunity.A new foreign policy initiative will be announced in October to expand the partnership between Italy and Africa and play a greater role in energy flow from continental Africa to Europe.According to people familiar with the matter, the Chinese economic deceleration and the Ukrainian war made Russia distract, which will only benefit Italy.

Italy recently passed a law that allows the government to exercise special "gold shares" power to prevent foreign technology transfer in strategic fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors and energy, which is widely regarded as restricting transfer to China.The Italian government must also decide whether to renew the agreement to renew the "Belt and Road" initiative by the end of this year.The slowdown of China's economy has weakened the reasons for Roman renewal.

Some people in Europe warned that if the Chinese economy once again recovered at a faster speed than the current expectations, the strategic balance may soon change.Then there is a variable: Trump has the possibility of re -elected US president.

Europe still treats China more component than looking at the United States, which means that there will always be policy differences in treating the two countries."In Europe, Germany will never approve the size of the United States. If Germany will continue to be an exporter, then it cannot really change its relationship with China," said former Goldman Sachs economist Jim O'Neal.He used to be the Minister of State of the British government and created the abbreviation of BRIC BRIC 20 years ago.

big problem

For decision makers and consultants in Washington and other capitals, all this is attributed to a big problem, that is: China's economic difficulties will make China better or more easy?

Some people are worried that the injured China may cause the master to blame their economic dilemma on external forces and opponents such as the United States, and exacerbate tensions.

Biden's national security adviser Sha Liven tried to prevent this possibility last month, saying that the United States did not "seek to slow down China's economy or weaken China's economic growth."He and many Bayeng staff emphasized the necessity of continuous dialogue between the two major economies and did not seek decouples with China.

A more gentle point is that the economic slowdown will crack down on China's efforts to advocate its economic model as a Western model substitute.Or this will cause Chinese leaders to focus on domestic issues and become less powerful on the global stage.The Cutler of the Asian Association said, "You may see that this has caused competition between the United States and China to cool down, especially for competition in other parts of the world."

Although there are divergent opinions, those in the center of power believe that even if China's economic growth slows down, it will temporarily alleviate competition, but Beijing will still be a powerful competitor in the global economy in the future.

"In key areas, Beijing is still strong and ambitious: its national defense expenses and military forces may continue to grow. Its diplomacy is global, and it has participated in some economic cooperation arrangements that the United States has not participated," New United States Security SecurityFontaine of the center said."Reports about its geopolitical competition to the end are too early."