Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily Society
The United States has continued to raise interest rates since March last year, and interest rates have reached a new high level in 22 years. All parties generally predict that this may lead to economic recession, but so far it has not occurred;Bounce, the housing market is steady.When the Fed's President Ball announced at the end of last month, when the target range of interest rates was raised, the term "soft landing" was rarely used, which made people add confidence to the US economic prospects.
What is the trend of inflation in the US economy and the future?Ball said clearly that there are currently reasons to slow down interest rates, and the future interest rate hike process still looks at data decisions; after continuous interest rate increases, the level of inflation in the United States has fallen.The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June increased by 3%year -on -year, while the increase in a year ago was 9.1%, and the CPI after removing food and energy was 4.8%.
The level of inflation to 2%is the goal set by the Federal Assembly.The strong performance of the US economy has made the possibility of soft landing in the hopes of the Federal Salon Club, and it has the opportunity to get rid of the recession.Of course, the risk of recession has been resolved.Under the conditions of high interest rates, the pressure of the US capital market and employment demand may be greater, and the possibility of market demand still shrinks; it is gratifying that the signs of recession have not been revealed so far, "anti -inflation, soft landing" seems to be indispensable.Expect.
From historical experience, the price of raising interest rates and anti -inflation has paid the price of economic recession, causing the "hard landing" of economic recession.Many economists may have misjudged a decline in the nearly a year and a half of continuous interest rate hikes.Why do you look at it?A common reason is that it is misled by financial indicators, the so -called "colonial rate curve inverted", which means that the yield of short -term public bonds has become higher than long -term public debt yields. This abnormal phenomenon has declined in the past.
Cruman, a winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, disagreed. He pointed out that the significance of the charging rate curve is generally misunderstood. In fact, the colonial rate curve inverted will not cause a wave of recession, but it hidden the future policy direction of the association's future policy.The expectations of predicting will be greatly reduced in the future; that is, the colonial rate curve inversion should not be used as "independent evidence", but it reflects the market consensus that "recession is coming", and that consensus is uncertain.High interest rates raised sharply last March, so far, not only hasn't caused recession, but the economy seems surprisingly strong.
Compared with the short -cycle indicators of various advanced indicators, it can be found that the US economy is indeed entering a short period of recovery.The manufacturing PMI looked up again in July, continuing the rising momentum, indicating that the US economy began a new trend of upward.Moreover, despite the high cost of borrowing and economic uncertainty, many companies are still investing for a long time, reflecting investors' good expectations for the US economy.It can be judged that the US economy has shown a strong cyclical volatility, and the total demand is likely to bottom out.
The US economy has maintained the toughness of the economic cycle fluctuations in this round of great interest rate hikes.The first is that foreign capital sources have continued to flow in, which has lived in investment and markets.The Russian and Uchians worsen the European investment environment, the global economic uncertainty has increased, the United States has become a relatively secure safe haven, assets are favored, and interest rate hikes have also fermented the dual factors of spreads and risk aversion, driving a large number of global capital flows into the United States, which has obviously produced obviouslyThe investment pull effect provides favorable support for the US economic toughness.
Secondly, since 2022, in order to promote the manufacturing industry to return to the United States and realize reinstatement, the US government has launched a series of industrial policies, such as infrastructure bills, chips and science bills, and inflation reduction bills.It has played a positive role in the aspects of Hua and attracted foreign direct investment.American companies are quickly relocating the supply chain. Since 2022, manufacturing investment has grown rapidly. In the first quarter of this year, the fixed investment growth of manufacturing has grown as high as 16.8%.The work opportunities for the return and foreign direct investment of thousands of manufacturing industries will increase by 102,000 job opportunities in the first quarter of 2023. It is expected that it will reach more than 400,000 this year.While creating employment opportunities, the toughness of the labor market has also supported the toughness of consumption.The toughness of the US economy is greatly enhanced.
