Source: Taiwan Wangbao Society Review
The second quarter of the United States has grown 2.4%, which is not only 1.8%higher than market expectations, but also 2%from the first quarter of this year.In the second half of last year, the US economy has grown four consecutive seasons, and it is a strong counterattack on the US economy recession.Especially in the environment of high inflation and violence, the US economy can still show such toughness, which is surprising.
The US economy shows toughness
According to a report from the US Department of Commerce, growth mainly comes from three major pieces: consumption, investment and government expenditure, of which the previous two performances are the most amazing.First of all, in terms of consumption, although personal consumption expenditure in the second quarter increased by 1.6%, a significant decline in 4.2%from the first quarter, it was far better than 1.2%of market expectations, accounting for 68%of the GDP.engine.
Secondly, corporate capital expenditures have risen sharply. In terms of plant and equipment investment, it has increased by 2.3%and 2.6%compared with the first quarter, becoming the key to promoting private investment.With the support of deficit budgets, government expenditures have expanded in four seasons, with an average season of 0.9%, which is much higher than the average of 0.4%of the first five years before the epidemic in 2020. From consumption and investment to government expenditure, they are expanding.
It is worth noting that consumption is the largest pillar of the US economy, but investment (including the people and the government) is the core of the US economic toughness.Investment is a process of accumulating future wealth or productive forces. In addition to making substantial contributions to the current economy, it is also an important catalyst to improve future economic growth momentum.Not to mention, as the government and enterprises expand their capital expenditure, even the label will also increase the demand for the labor market and drive salary growth, which will eventually become the next wave of consumption.The US employment market continues to eat tightly, and the number of vacancies has been maintained at nearly tens of millions (the latest June number is 9.582 million), and investment driving is indispensable.
Further traceing the origin, investment can quickly recover, which is related to Biden through tax cuts and subsidies to promote a series of promoting investment plans.For example, an infrastructure bill with a scale of 1.2 trillion dollars (1.61 trillion yuan), the chip bill that has been passed in August last year, and the reduction of inflation bills are gradually exerting the effect of attracting investment in attracting investment, causing global electric vehicles, European green energy and Taiwan semiconductorsThe industry has invested in the United States.
At present, such a trend has not changed, and it is continuously noticing the US economy.No wonder the Federal Reserve President Powell publicly stated publicly after the interest rate decision -making meeting at the end of July that as the recent economic data generally improved, the FED working group has removed the possible options for economic recession.In other words, even if the US economy slows down, the process will be soft landing, not hard landing.This judgment still needs time to verify, but it is not necessary to deny that the US economy is really tough.
Emerging market capital outflow
It must be reminded that the toughness shown by the US economy may also mean that the FED tightening currency period may be pulled longer.Especially once the soft landing is really realized, the economic growth of the economic growth will be tight with the employment market, which will make the inflation more difficult to fall. The FED will have no reason to change the tightening position. The high interest rate will be maintained for a longer period of time.EssenceRecently, after the US dollar index fell below the 100 integer mark, in just a few trading days, it re -stood back to 102 (nearly 3%of the rebound), which is because of this.
Strong US dollar is not a bad thing for the United States, but for most emerging economies, it may be a big concern.When the US dollar continues to strengthen and represents the weakening of the currency of emerging markets, the capital will move closer to the United States, and it may increase the risk of capital outflow of emerging markets.International institutions including IMF and World Bank have issued reports that the strong US dollar effect brought by the US tightening monetary policy often forms a risk of spillover and affects the performance of emerging market economy.
Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia during the Asian financial turmoil in 1997 are good examples.At that time, these economies of emerging markets had long been exposed, because the US dollar appreciated strongly, and the market was highly concerned about whether the country's currency could be preserved, and the funds began to escape on a large scale.This not only exacerbates the derogation of the currency of these countries, but also makes the already weak economic trend, which worsen it. In the end, under the vicious circle, it will inevitably cause the financial crisis.
As the US economy may be softened, the trend of the US dollar is becoming more and more strong, and the spillover risk of tightening monetary policy seems to be rising.Similar to the capital escape crisis similar to the Asian financial turmoil in 1997, it is difficult to protect it again.Especially for mainland China, which leads the leader of emerging markets, the current economic challenges are already arduous. If the RMB increases due to the rise in the US dollar, which will cause doubts of capital escape, it may allow BeijingAnd even more stretched.This means that the risk of overflowing under the soft landing of the United States may have to be a little serious in addition to not being ignored.
