The Russian and Ukraine conflict has become a deadlock to this day.Why do you say that?
As far as the battlefield situation, if both sides can still fight for you and go to me last year, the unceramentation of it, then this year's offensive and defensive will be almost stuck.First of all, the Russian army spent 10 months using the Wagner to hire the mercenary to attack the small town of Ukraine, which is easy to attack and defended. It also caused a great change of shock; then the Ukrainian counterattack that was eager to wear in the outside world was underway.Two months later, due to heavy casualties and small results, they were forced to suspend.Then, the news of the Russian army began to fight back. It should be just tactical, and we must not expect how much the results of the war.
The second is that from the perspective of the comprehensive war strength of both sides, it is generally balanced.From the perspective of Russia, the time industry has proven that sanctions have little effect on their survival or even war, but it has a significant suppression on its long -term development; the sound of domestic anti -war is also very small.Putin's prestige may be damaged due to a mutation, but the control is still, and no one can replace it.From the perspective of Ukraine, Western support and assistance are more stable than some people's concerns, and they may continue to upgrade in weapons and equipment.
The vitality of the Ukraine economy in the war of war was also unexpectedly tenacious. Last year, the whole territory was suffering from war. GDP (GDP) fell by only one -third. It can still be exported to food, which is not easy.Ukraine's leadership is also very amazing, and it is by no means ironic that Russian media and leadership will only listen to Americans.
Under the deadlock is the advantage of international mediation.Considering that the two sides of the war are nuclear powers and a nuclear power plant, which is very dangerous for the development of the war.International organizations and countries around the world are needed to take advantage of the more horrible war of war in hell to open the previous mediation to prevent the war from being further upgraded.Naturally, the mediation dispute cannot be flattering on both sides. We must adhere to a fair position and have persuasion and reconcile.Regardless of how to mediate, the author thinks that solving Crimea's belonging problem is the key to successful mediation.The following is the main point of the mediation solution concept of the author:
1. Russia and Ukraine should agree to determine the referendum of Crimean's belonging by the United Nations.If the referendum results enters Russia, Russia should give Ukraine a certain economic compensation.
2. Russia should withdraw unconditionally out of the Ukrainian territory and compensate for the loss of war.
Third, Russia should announce that the referendum of Wudong Sizhou last year and the legal status have been changed invalid.
4. Russia acknowledges that Ukraine as a sovereign state has the right to join or withdraw from any legal international organization.
5. NATO promises to deploy large -scale offensive weapons in NATO neighbors in Russia during the non -war period.
Why is it the key to solving the Crimean belonging problem?Considering the history of Crimea's modern belonging to Russia and a specific situation of later belonging to Ukraine, retracting Crimea is definitely a empathy of the Russian and an important factor in supporting Putin to continue the war.Just this referendum requires that the Ukrainian leadership will agree?This article thinks it is still possible.Although the Ukrainian President Zeleziski has still announced that it can only end the battle to the Crimean border, but he also said that life is more important than recovering the territory, so this proposal is worth trying.
Of course, it is also very difficult to spit out the occupied Ukrainian territory, but if it can form a general trend, the battlefield situation is tilting towards the other party, the domestic support forces are gradually decreasing, and influential friendly countries have persuadedSo strong like Putin, it is not completely impossible to change.
As for who can assume the mission of this mediation, it should first be the United Nations responsibilities, but it is strange that the United Nations has nothing to do.Now China, Brazil and even African countries are willing to come out to mediate, but it is obviously not enough.People only know that Sino -Russian relations are good, but they do not know that Chinese people who encounter good relationships are easy to scratch their face and bluntly, so they must also have a nominaries known for their direct rates, especially countries like the United States.It is just that the United States has always focused on helping Ukraine. It seems that he has not realized that he also has the responsibility of mediation of the Russian and Ukraine War, or the possibility of solving conflicts by mediation.There is also a disagreement between China and the United States, and how can I work together to solve the problem of the world?Therefore, it is easy to talk about Russia and Ukraine, but it is not easy to do. The Russian and Ukraine War will generally roll forward according to its own logic.
The author is the director of China (Yichun) Guiguzi National Policy Research Association
