Source: Taiwan Zhongshi News Network
Author: He Zhensheng
In the recent polls of the Taiwan election, Ke Wenzhe has overtaken Hou Youyi and temporarily lived in the second, and there are other polls that Joh P crushed Lai Shen to seize the first unexpected performance.Ke P, who has always been confident, may feel that he is unable to reach the old K and fight with Lai Shen Chuhan. It is no longer unable to reach a dream, and even determine that he is only separated from the Presidential Palace.However, if only these polls, Ke P thinks that he is "the person of the heavens". If it is not spicy to open his eyes, he is unaware of Xiang Yu's upper body and no one in his eyes.Whether a good dream became empty is worthy of continuous observation.
First of all, the poll of Ke Wenzhe is relatively improved, which is really conducive to the premature decision -making strategies of the blue and green parties. When both parties lock the other party as the most important imaginary enemy, the artillery fire naturally concentrates on the other party, and originally wanted to be marginalized.The old three Ke P, but because of this, profit.It seems that others are disadvantages. Ke P is perfectly flawless. Is this really the case?
When the blue and green parties were surprised to the threat of Ke Wenzhe in polls, Ke Wenzhe's jumping tickets in the municipal municipality in the past 8 years, such as the house, and the other five major cases of disadvantages will not become the combination of the blue and green parties.Attack the arrow target?In response to the case of 230 million (NT $ 10.2 million), the Taipei Performing Arts Center in Taipei Performance Art Center, Li Sichuan, deputy mayor of Taipei, will "evaluate the manager" on the 22nd, emphasizing that Jiang Shifu will help the former dynasty.However, it is necessary to be offered by the people of the people.
Secondly, Ke Wenzhe also benefited from the negative evaluation of sexual show and feeding incident because of blue and green.Nevertheless, although Lai Shen's polls have a small frustration, the basic disk is still solid. Most polls still ranks first. In addition, the Taiwan version of the "#ME TOO" movement spreads in all walks of life, which helps to disperse the people's attention to the ruling party itself., And weaken the degree of blame for it.Similarly, the doubt in the New Taipei Kindergarten's medicine was injured, but under the active communication and control of the children's family members of the New Taipei City Government and the corresponding management and control, similar cases also appeared.Decreased.After returning to the fundamentals, Ke P's short -term relative dividends will be offset.
Furthermore, although the three major presidential candidates, Ke Wenzhe is a more attractive candidate, but it is by no means a popular and unstoppable popular king.For young ethnic groups, compared to Lai's Wenyan and Hou's tablet, the funny and cunning of "Abe" are synonymous with the wise. Especially the first -test first -tasting people's favorite witty and funny SARS politicians.However, for most old voters, speculative exaggerated politicians may not be favored. Instead, political practitioners with the same ideas or political achievements are the favorite.Ke P, who is trying to take the middle route, if you can't put forward a clear discussion in the "national identity" and economic and social development strategies, I am afraid that the left and right sources will not be possible, and it will become an alternative box office poison under the left and right.
In addition, one of the reasons for Ke Wenzhe has always maintained the topic is whether it is true with Guo Taiming's "Guo Ke Biao" or "Ke Guo Biao"?If it is true, the general opinion believes that Hou's election is considered, and Lai's threat is even greater.However, according to the latest polls of the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation, only 30 % of the people are happy to see "Ke Guo", but 50 % are not happy. The difference between the two is 15 percentage points.P's election is limited.
Finally, the presidential election is not a local election at the county -level county mayor. The cultural and propaganda war on the media exposure and Internet volume alone is still not enough to win.Ke P, who is the darling of the media, may be complacent because of the eyes of the media's excessive care, but don't forget that the importance of organizing mobilization in the presidential election is no less than the public war, but this is the weakness of the people's party.The fatal injury competes.There are still more than half a year since the voting date of the presidential election next year. The green camp with the central governance resources and the blue camp with the governing power of 2/3 local counties and cities have not been fully mobilized by the organization.The current momentum is not doubt.
In other words, the bullishness of Ke Wenzhe's market is not from the growth of his own strength, but the blessing of the factors of the blue -green opponent's internal explosion event. It is quite doubtful whether it can change the support of growth.However, if Ke Wenzhe feels good at herself and insists on gambling in the presidential election, the biggest beneficiary may be the DPP, but the biggest victim is not the National Party, but the people's party itself.Imagine that the people's party cannot obtain the central government power. Can the limited resources of Hsinchu City alone be supported, can they escape the fate of the previous third party foaming?It is conceivable.
Based on the above understanding, if Ke Wenzhe wants to maintain his political influence and lead the people's party to continue to develop after the election, I am afraid that it is an urgent important service to open the blue and white dialogue and cooperation before election.
(the author is the Department of Public Affairs of Fo Guang University, the Future and Lolel Industrial Department, the Professor of Lohuo Industrial Science, and the Chairman of the Taiwan Foreign Relations Research and Development Association)
