After the
Seventh Kingdom Group (G7) summit, the new word of "de-Risking China" appeared in international relations.Compared to the "decoupling" set off in the era of the US -China trade war, "going to China" is gentle and even brings commercial colors.But overall, this word from the chairman of the European Commission Feng Delin is based on China's "Systemic Rival" as a "Systemic Rival" as the Western world.
At the G7 Hiroshima Summit, we saw that the host country Japan played the role of close relationships with developing countries, and invited India, Vietnam, Indonesia (the Chairman of the Asian Wheel Valley) and Komoro (the non -all -all -value chairman)., Brazil and Cook Islands (Rotating Chairman of the Pacific Island Forum).In addition, the most important representatives of the United States all ally Australia and South Korea have been invited to the Hiroshima Summit.In front of the leaders of the Southern World (Global South), the "risk -riskization" initiative not only shows the unity of the Seven Kingdoms Group, but also shows the "cooperation" sincerity of the Western world to developing countries.
After the Hiroshima Summit, the United States also sent a message.The US Minister of Commerce Raymond revealed that 14 countries participating in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF) have reached a consensus, which will set up a coordinated supply chain activity of the council, and establish a crisis response to the network to allow each memberThe country issued a warning of a potential supply chain.Because the information disclosed is more vague, whether all countries need to provide confidential information for the time being unknown.In the perspective of the Seven Kingdoms of the Asia (Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Brunei, and Singapore), the biggest concern is the two of the United States and allies (Japan, Australia and South Korea) borrowing the IPEF council and the crisis to respond to the Internet.Mechanisms monitor or control or control the countries of various countries.
Semiconductor is the top priority
As a member of the world semiconductor industry, maintaining their respective semiconductor industry must be the primary consideration in Southeast Asia.According to the assessment of the consulting company Rhodium, Taiwan produced 92%of the world's most advanced chips (below 10 nanometers), which completely monopolized the supply of the international market.In addition, TSMC itself also produces 35%of the global automotive micro -controllers and 70%of the world's smartphone chipset.If the graphic processing unit used by 5G radio and computer is included in calculation, the status of Taiwan in semiconductor is even more prominent.
For this reason, Rhodium predicts that once the Taiwan Strait is blocked by the Chinese PLA, the world will lose 1.6 trillion dollars.Thousands of people.As for Southeast Asia, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines are also listed as impactful countries, mainly their dependence on Taiwan's high -end chips.Without Taiwan's chips, these countries cannot be carried out in the assembly and testing of the downstream semiconductor.It is no exaggeration to say that if the global semiconductor is broken due to the conflict of the Taiwan Strait, the semiconductor industry in Southeast Asia will also be caught in a collapse.This will inevitably hit the economy of Southeast Asian countries, and may also cause political bone effects.
In order to safeguard its own economic and industrial interests, Southeast Asian countries cannot passively facing the "risk" initiative of the Western world.
Since the G7 actively finds cooperation with the southern world, this also reveals that the former must build a "new world factory" outside China.In the semiconductor industry, Southeast Asian countries must recognize a fact. Even if they have kept a close trade relationship with China, and even friendly relations between the two countries, the reorganization of the semiconductor supply chain advocated by the Western world is imperative.As a participant in downstream semiconductors, Southeast Asia cannot control the decisions and measures of these minority semiconductor powers.Instead of going against the current, Southeast Asia should use this opportunity to attract more semiconductor investment from developed countries in order to consolidate and enhance the status of Southeast Asia in the semiconductor supply chain.Regardless of the geographical location and the basis of the semiconductor industry, Southeast Asia is still the most conditional area that attracts the investment in large semiconductor countries.
In addition, since the world semiconductor supply chain has just begun to be built, Southeast Asia must comprehensively evaluate the upcoming "chip war".According to the news in the industry, many Taiwanese businessmen engaged in semiconductor have been deployed in full swing (setting up factories) in Southeast Asia. On the one hand, relying on the Chinese market (risk management), on the other hand, to cooperate with the US camp three years agoPromote "safe industry chain".
Among so many Southeast Asian countries, Vietnam is the largest profitable person. The cooperation between the country and the Taiwanese side has a total of 70 scientific and technological talent training projects.Taking Vietnam as an example, other Southeast Asian countries can consider establishing cooperative relationships with Taiwanese businessmen and Taiwan universities, implementing the talent training plan for semiconductor developers, and using talents as the foundation of improving their national semiconductor status.
Of course, in Southeast Asian countries involved in IPEF, it is also the possibility of evaluating the monitoring of the United States and allies to monitor or control the semiconductor of various countries.Can Southeast Asian countries selectively provide information about semiconductor without affecting national interests?Or can 14 countries only send more general information as a cooperation contribution?Besides, if some Chinese companies borrow high -end chips imported from Southeast Asian companies to China, what should Southeast Asian countries deal with?These issues must be agreed before reaching consensus.
The author is a senior lecturer in the China Institute of Malaya.
