The latest polls of poll agencies Gallop's latest polls show that Americans have fell to 15%of China, a new low since the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries in 1979.The relationship between the United States and China is so bad, so that the high -level contact between the two sides is basically shelved, and the "war speech" has become commonplace in Washington.
In November 2022, US President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping met with a relative friendly meeting in Bali, Indonesia.The team can implement consensus and steadily improve bilateral relations.In fact, the two countries originally planned to start a cabinet -level visit early this year.
The so -called "Chinese spy balloon" incident that happened in February this year exposed the vulnerability of relations between the two countries.China is regrettable for the air balloon deviation from the route, and it is a regret to enter the United States.However, this is not enough to persuade the US Secretary of State Brosky to continue to visit China as planned.Since then, the two countries have no high -level visits.
A sense of inevitable
The mainstream view of Washington is that Beijing has become aggressive in protecting its own interests and destroying the United States' international order, and Beijing's mainstream view is that Washington is determined to prevent China's rise and ignore China's legitimate interests.Nowadays, both sides have a feeling of listening to the sky.
Foreign policy is an extension of domestic politics.Obviously, for the two countries, domestic problems are the most concerned.US -China relations have not received enough attention from both sides.
In the United States, the main concern of Biden is the re -election.He is facing a difficult election campaign to persuade American voters who are worried about his age and health. He is the best candidate to lead the United States for four years.
Cooperate with allies and partners to defend the current international system and maintain the dominance of the United States in the world. It is still the foreign policy goal of Biden's government, which forces the United States to compete with China and further weaken Russia's declined strength.EssenceThe United States and China have a completely different statement about the invasion of Ukraine in Russia.
The United States' policies for China are dominated by hardliners and good elements.The generals have been busy predicting when the war with China broke out, one of them claimed that it might be in 2025.Surprisingly, as a democratic country, before the United States officially listed China as the number one threat, it did not conduct public debates or discussions on US -China relations.
In China, the Chinese government's 20th National Congress and the National People's Congress in March 2023 in October 2022 confirmed that Xi Jinping's third re -elected leader will not occur in the next few years.Political event.The attention of the Chinese government has turned to the economic recovery of the post -crown disease.Other challenges, such as the decline in population and aging, the gap between the rich and the poor, and the high -loss rate, including the highly lost industry, including millions of unemployed universities each year, will become the focus of the mainland government's political agenda.
Falling into a safe dilemma
Maybe Beijing has given up the relationship with Washington.China is lacking in interest in receiving visiting U.S. officials.On the contrary, it welcomes leaders of American allies such as Germany and France to visit Beijing to try to create cracks between the United States and allies to prevent Washington from forming a united front against China.Since Qin Gang, the former ambassador to the United States, was promoted to China Foreign Minister in December 2022, the position of Chinese ambassador to the United States has been vacant (compiled by the Chinese ambassador to the United States Xie Feng on May 23).
The United States and China have fallen into a typical security dilemma and regard each other as the greatest security threat.The more a big country trying to strengthen its safety, the more unsafe on the other party, and then strengthening their safety, leading to a vicious circle, making them closer to the edge of direct conflict.
Is the United States willing to accept the rise of China?What will China do after realizing the Chinese dream?When we deal with tricky US -China relations, these are issues that need to be seriously considered.
China's rise will intentionally or unintentionally challenge the United States' hegemony with the world.American policy makers never accept a new multi -pole world order.Washington continues to fight for the support of allies and partners to curb China, although it denies this.
The internal conflict related to global power transfer makes it extremely difficult to manage US -China relations. Unless Washington generously gives its global leadership to China, or China is willing to act as a secondary role and abandon its "core interests"EssenceBoth sides are proud and powerful countries.No one can suppress anyone.From a practical point of view, these two major countries and other countries will have to cooperate in a multi -pole world.
Impact on the Taiwan Strait
The situation in the Taiwan Strait is very grim.The United States' support for Taiwan has become more firm and actively armed Taiwan to prevent the attack in mainland China.Washington has been constantly upgrading to Taiwan's "unofficial" relationship, and its commitment to "one China" has been questioned.Some people believe that the United States is tempting mainland China to fight against Taiwan.
For Washington, it is the most convenient, but also the most dangerous option for Mainland China.Defending Taiwan seems to be the right approach, especially if you regard cross -strait issues as "democracy and autocracy".However, because Taiwan is the core of the core interests of mainland China, it is unlikely that Taiwan is unlikely to deter Beijing.On the contrary, this will determine Beijing's determination to be better prepared for the military duel of the Taiwan Strait.
Although mainland China claims to be peaceful with Taiwan, its response has become more tough for provocative behaviors in the United States or Taiwan.Mainland China ’s military exercises are becoming more and more like invasion or blockade drills, which exacerbates the tension of the Taiwan Strait.
As mainland China becomes more powerful and confident, and Hong Kong's autonomy under the "one country, two systems" gradually disappears, Taiwanese are increasingly interested in returning to mainland China, because the island is forming a unique Taiwan in TaiwanHuman identity.
The assessment of the politics and strategic intent of the United States on mainland China is pessimistic.U.S. officials believe that Xi Jinping has decided to treat unified Taiwan as his most important political heritage.They believe that he is ready to use force to achieve this goal, and he has ordered the Chinese military to be prepared by 2027.
Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and India countries are also worried about their safety, because they are not sure how to deal with disputes in the future.
Reconstruction trust is possible
Both the United States and China must protect their fundamental interests.For example, the United States should strictly abide by the commitment to maintain unofficial relations with Taiwan, and open the door for the peaceful unification of cross -strait peace.On the other hand, China should use actions to show that it will continue to improve domestic human rights and political freedom and pursue peace foreign policies.
The two sides can also start to rebuild trust from the problem of less controversy. For example, the Fulbright Program, which was immediately suspended by the Trump administration, and greatly increased flights between the two countries to cope with the rear crownsIncreasing travel needs in the sick age.At present, there are very few direct flights between the two countries, and the price of air tickets is outrageous, which hinders people's contact.
Washington and Beijing are full of pessimistic and warming emotions. This provides fertile soil for various eagle, opponents, nationalists, and war traffickers to push bilateral relations to the abyss.
The war between the United States and China is not unavoidable. We should do our best to delete the war from the policy menu of both sides.The rational forces to promote peace and cooperation must be the mainstream ideas that promote this important relationship.
The author is a professor of politics and international relations at the University
The English Electronics Magazine "ThinkChina" (ThinkChina "
Golden Shun Translation
