Source: China Economic Daily
Author: Xiong Li
The statistical communiqués across China in 2022 have been released in the near future. The permanent population of the four major first -tier cities in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen has experienced negative growth. This phenomenon has caused widespread attention and discussion.
Data show that at the end of 2022, Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou's permanent population were 21.843 million, 24.759 million, and 18.731 million, respectively, a decrease of 43,000, 135,400, and 76,500 compared with the previous year.Shenzhen's permanent population is 17,661,800, a decrease of 19,800 people from 2021.This is also the first time since the founding of Shenzhen City has increased negative growth.
Beishang, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, as a first -tier city, population changes have always attracted much attention.However, the increase or decrease of population is not a simple arithmetic problem, but a complex equation containing many variables.Although the permanent population of the four cities fell, the reason behind it should not be generalized, and specific analysis is needed.In Guangdong and Shenzhen, the total flow population ranks first in the country. In 2022, it was affected by factors such as the epidemic.Among them, Guangzhou suffered a particularly severe epidemic and influenced by the Spring Festival factors. A large number of migrant workers chose to watch and return to their hometown in advance.The return of part of the foreign population in a short period of time has caused staged contraction in the scale of the permanent population.The situation in Shenzhen is similar to this, and some analysts believe that Shenzhen's adjustment policy has also had a certain impact.The Guangdong Provincial Bureau of Statistics predicts that with the development of economic and social development, the growth trend of Guangdong's permanent population will not change for a long time. It is expected that the population of Guangdong will gradually return to stable growth in 2023.
Beijing and Shanghai's permanent population decreased, and more, as the result of the large cities, actively and controlled the size of the population according to resource conditions and functional positioning.Beijing takes the non -capital function as a breakthrough in solving the "big city disease" and optimizing the function of the capital. In recent years, the permanent population has shown a double decline in the growth rate of growth and increase.Become the first oversized city in the country.Shanghai Master Plan (2017-2035) proposed that the scale of the permanent population strictly controls the size of the permanent population, and with a scale of about 25 million people as the target of the permanent population regulation in 2035.In fact, in 2017, Beijing and Shanghai had already declined at the same time.
Pulling the horizon far away, we can see that compared with Beishang, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, many provincial and western capital cities and new tier cities have become "winners."In 2022, 17 of the 24 trillion yuan GDP cities achieved the positive growth of the permanent population. The incremental arrangement was arranged in turn as Changsha, Hangzhou, Hefei, Xi'an, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Qingdao, Jinan, Chengdu, Ningbo, Nanjing, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, Suzhou, and Suzhou,Quanzhou, Fuzhou, Wuxi, Nantong, Chongqing.Among them, the permanent population of Changsha, Hangzhou, Hefei, and Xi'an all increased more than 100,000, with 181,300, 172,000, 169,000, and 122,900.Among the top five cities, four are provincial capital cities in the central and western regions.In addition, Guiyang and Nanchang's provincial capital cities have increased increased by 118,100 and 10,600 respectively.
At present, the spatial structure of China's economic development is undergoing profound changes, and the central cities and urban agglomerations have become the main space form to carry the development elements of development.Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, China's coordinated development has made new progress, the level of development in the central and western regions has continued to improve, the degree of infrastructure is more balanced, the gap between urban and rural and regional has continued to narrow, and industrial development has provided more employment opportunities.For example, in recent years, Changsha has vigorously implemented the "strong provincial capital" strategy to enhance economic energy level, space energy level, human talent level, equipment manufacturing, biomedicine, culture and entertainment and other industries, and the advantages of education, medical, and cultural tourism resources are obviousIt has been awarded China's most happy city for 15 consecutive years.These are the "retention" passwords of this "net red city".
In the context of the total population of the country and the active regional mobility, it is affected by the multiple factors such as urban governance concepts, industrial structure adjustments, transformation of fertility concepts, household registration policies, and living costs.The features may be more obvious in the future.It is necessary to pay attention to the negative growth of the population of Beishang, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, but not too anxious.In the long run, the population bonus of a country or city depends on the total amount and the quality; it depends on the population and the talents.It is necessary to recognize, adapt to, and lead the new normal of the development of the population, better coordinate the relationship between population, economy, society, resources and environment, optimize the regional economic layout and the land and space system, and accelerate the shape of modern manpower with excellent quality, abundant total quality, optimization of structure, and reasonable distribution.Resources make people develop a benign interaction with economic and social development.
