Recently, friends asked. On May 17, the Economist website published a Jear Singer in the Economist website entitled "Kissinger detailed how to avoid the Third World War", what do I think?
His question is very big, but I can't get around, I try to answer as follows:
Based on the current international political status of Sino -US competition and the Russian and Ukraine War, Kissinger believes that China, as the two most important powers in the world today, is convinced that each other is a strategic threat and is gradually fighting.In his opinion, the fate of human beings depends on whether China and the United States can live in harmony; with the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI), the time window for China and the United States to find the way to find each other is less than 10 years.
For this reason, Kissinger made several suggestions to leaders who are interested in solving this problem.He proposed that the establishment of a world order based on rules and Europe, China, and India can participate.This may be able to achieve good results, at least not a catastrophic ending.This is the responsibility of the leaders of the superpowers today.
Kissinger, who follows the "responsibilities of the leader of the great power", has two fulcrum, one is realism, and the other is the sovereignty of the 19th century.Realism follows all the existence of all, paying attention to respecting the actual interests, and often weighing the advantages and disadvantages above the moral principles.The universal value contradiction conflicts with the common rules of the balance of sovereignty in the 21st century and the common rules of general human rights.Considering that this year marks the 75th anniversary of the UN World Human Rights Declaration, this contradiction is even more revealed, and there are dual defects in cognition and value judgment.
Therefore, even if Kissinger's political strategy was successful, it must be at the cost of sacrificing some local interests and non -difference human rights.Moreover, these costs must be buried in hidden dangers for future conflicts ... Looking at the affairs that Kissinger has dealt with in his life, whether it is Vietnamese affairs, the United States and Soviet relations, and Sino -US relations, there is no exception.
It can be seen that Kissinger said, "Create a world order based on rules and Europe, China, and India," even if it is possible, it may not be desirable:
First, based on rules, there is no new idea. What are the rules?Whose rule?America's?If it is, this is the problem of the current European aggrieved, China dissatisfaction, India's derivedist position, and the cause of conflict.The reason why this inverted fruit does not solve the problem.
Second, ignore the local interests of the vast regions or many small countries outside the big country (behind it, life), losing value -oriented.
Third, the fundamental issue is still the conflict between sovereignty and human rights, which has become the main cause of international relations, interpersonal relationships, human relationships, people and nature of man, human body and mind.
Fourth, the basic discovery of "the first premise of all history is undoubtedly the existence of life of life" (Marx and Engel's German ideology, 1845) ignorance.
Therefore, Kissinger's "world order" is not a problem that may be impossible, but that it can be taken in the world today.
In my opinion, even from the perspective of preventing the occurrence of the Third World War, or from the perspective of peace or Kant, this world of AI technology is ultra -high -speed.A new way of thinking, a way of thinking and value orientation of ultra -sovereignty, super geographical, and super civilization to solve the problem. This is the "LIVE and Let LIVE of Global Symbiosism" (tolerant global symbiosis).
Therefore, the United Nations architecture built by the winner of the World War II was when it was changed.In particular, the reform of the United Nations Security Council is imperative.To carry out such reforms, it is not just the leaders of the superpowers, but also the organization and individuals of all countries and all influential sources to take responsibility to form a global symbiotic consensus, convention (rules) and organizational structure.To this end, we even need to launch a signature campaign of the Global Cohesion Convention first.
The development ofAI technology is expected to brand the brandization, standardization, and replication of the civilized lifestyle of industry and commerce, push to the extreme, and solve the problem of dynamic (Dynamics) of the incremental and scarcity of economic life, but can it solve the societyThe balance of life and humanitarianism (Synergy)?
The benefits ofAI are self -evident. Its danger is whether it is human -machine confrontation, human -computer combination, or human -machine symbiosis. Even AL experts and manufacturers have doubts and even unknown.In the future, the Institute of Life reported on March 29 that more than 1,000 industry executives and experts including the U.S. billionaire Musk, Apple co -founder Wozniak and the top experts in the AI field, and the Turing Award winner Benji O.Signing an open letter calls for at least six months to suspend the development of the development than the GPT-4, saying that it "constitutes potential risks to society and humans."
This is the middle (axis) mind thinking (including idealism, rationality or realism, system control), who is accustomed to "seeking common depository differences" (axis). It is necessary to review their behavior in philosophy and reach a new consensus.This is probably the reason why Kissinger realizes "with the rapid development of artificial intelligence and other technologies, leaving the time window for China and the United States to find ways to get along less than 10 years"?
I don't know what Kissinger, who is more interested in looking forward to the future, is more interested in the future. The next two books (one about AI, one about the nature of the alliance) looks like.However, the essence of AI, such as the rapid development of ChatGPT, may push the axis thinking of common ground while depositing to the extreme, and the "personal ownership" that is essentially open to the web3, which is essentially open, is the integration of human rights, affairs, and real rights.The "symbiosis" of individuals (relative to the country) contradicts.This contradiction is obviously impossible to solve it in the general national "political and economic alliance" or "extensive interest alliance"!
If Kissinger doesn't understand this, I think it will be very regrettable.Because he does not seem to understand that almost all the ideas for solving human problems from national relations have been exhausted.Centennial elder Kissinger's historical knowledge and international affairs experience has been "out" (outdated), but he is still thinking happily. From the perspective of individual life vitality, it is not necessarily valuable!
Evergreen domestic structure imbalances
Yes, Mr. Kissinger, who is active in international affairs for 50 years, has a flawed knowledge structure.He has experience in dealing with international affairs, but lacks the basic knowledge of economics. Therefore, when talking about Sino -US relations, he has no common sense of economics. When criticizing Trump to change the trade war in Sino -US relations, he did not take care of China's past in the past.In the high -speed development of more than 40 years, there are problems with the loss of the entire rural life and the "iron public foundation" of the land finance, especially the export -oriented economy of low wages, low welfare, low human rights, high taxes, and high social transaction costs (including foreign exchange control).As a result, the domestic consumer market (the trade surplus is not sufficient) and other issues have accumulated a long period of time.He has problems with the hollow of the United States, the rust belt, the high unemployment rate, the increasing infrastructure construction, the civilianization of the middle class, and the relief of the people at the bottom -these foreigners who even have the Spring Festival from the Spring Festival in 2015,I see a problem (Actually, when a friend in New York accompanied me to the island of Liberty during the Spring Festival in 2008, he said to me a meaningful saying: "The United States is finished, and now I can't even create a needle."Singh turned a blind eye, hearing it.
As long as the structural dual imbalance between China and the United States existing in China and the United States will not be resolved, even if the relationship between the two countries will get along harmoniously, it can only be temporary and crisis.With the imbalance between both sides of the domestic and international issues on both sides, China and the United States also forced the so -called harmony of ostrich -style to get along with each other.One accidentally, it was really forced to fight the third world war.
As a junior, I am unfortunately Ginger did not realize why Trump was selected as President of the United States at this time node in 2016.Kissinger didn't seem to realize the existence of the structural dual imbalance between China and the United States at all. Instead, it was caused by the result, and we blamed Trump to break the 50 -year Sino -US relations.This is completely the basic judgment of scholars' thinkers or even ordinary people.
Some friends say that he is a literati, and it is precisely that it is the dual royal use of Wall Street Capital Group and Chinese power.Because the foundation of Sino -US relations in the past 50 years is to collude with the capital forces of Wall Street and the Chinese power group."People" above.This is the essence of the problem.
In today's world, the world urgently needs to have the same way of seeking differences and differences.Three years after China's invention of "internal cycle" in 2020, the Financial Times recently reported that "the global investment bank's business profit declines in China", maybe Kissinger criticized Trump and Biden to put moral principles on interests on interests.As a result, the reality of his realism hopes to reverse, but unfortunately he can't see it.After Biden made up for Trump's over -confidence in the four years, Trump might re -administration to solve the structural problems of the existence of China and the United States, and will mention the schedule again.
The author is the Global Society (Canada)
Chairman of the Academic Committee
Academic Member of the Shanghai United Nations Research Association
