Source: Nikkei Chinese website
The signal of the global economic deceleration is on the market.As the expectations of China's economic recovery weakened, the prices of major commodities such as copper fell by 20 % to 30 % compared to this year.In the U.S. bond market, the duration of the long -term government bond interest rate of economic deterioration warning signals in the US bond market has set the longest record in 42 years. The sluggish shipping freight also reflects the weak consumption in Europe and the United States.Although there are future favorable factors such as the upper limit of the US debt, the three signals reflect the strong concerns of the market for the economy.
In terms of commodity prices, copper prices fell by 20 % compared with the high level of this year, zinc fell by 30 %, and aluminum fell by 20 %, all of which have fallen significantly.In particular, copper is widely used in various industries such as infrastructure, automobiles, and home appliances. Copper prices fluctuate first like the economic barometer.It is also known as "Dr Copper", and its price movement has attracted much attention.
The decline in copper prices reflects the concerns of the market's stagnation of China's economic stagnation in the world's demand for copper.In China, copper cables for buildings are the main consumption of copper.China's real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 6.2 % year-on-year.Although the economic recovery of the crown disease before the crown disease will increase investment, the turnover of the real estate development enterprise is still unstable, and the new development investment has fallen into a downturn.
Real estate is considered to account for about 30 % of China's GDP (GDP), which has a great impact on the economy.Real estate issues have evolved into the credit issue of local finances that rely on land use rights.Weak and attracted attention.The infrastructure investment capacity of these local governments has decreased, and it is difficult to support economic growth through fiscal expenditure.
In addition to real estate, in April and May, China's manufacturing purchasing manager index (PMI) was lower than the Rongku Line for two consecutive months.Due to the weak growth of the European and American economies, it is difficult to accelerate China's exports.Takeda Chun, chief economist of Ito Takuya, said: "China's economic situation has not shown signs of upward, and it is difficult to turn into a situation of rising commodities."
In the bond market, more and more views are disturbed by the US economic prospects.
The abnormal status of the US short -term government bond yield higher than the long -term national bond yield is called "inverted yield".This is regarded as an early warning signal of economic recession.Comparing the two -year Treasury bonds and 10 -year Treasury bonds in the United States, as of May 26, the return on yield has continued for 226 days.A record since 42 years since 1981.
The interest difference between the three-month and 10-year Treasury bonds expanded to -1.9 % in early May, the highest decline in 42 years.The US economic recession probability of 68 % calculated based on the interest difference between the New York Federal Reserve Bank, before the Lehman crisis and IT bubble.
The reason behind it is that the Federal Reserve Committee (FRB) tightening financial policies in order to curb inflation may drag the economy.In April, the price index of personal consumption expenditure (PCE) increased by 4.4 % over the same month of the previous year, exceeding market expectations, etc., and the viscosity of inflation became more and more obvious.The Fed's continued interest rate hike is getting stronger and stronger, which will lead to long -term returns.
The market conditions of the container ship reflect that the consumption in Europe and the United States is weak and continues to be sluggish.
According to the Shanghai Shipping Exchange, the freight (instant contract) issued to the west coast of the United States in the fourth week of May was $ 1398 per 40 -foot container in May, a decrease of 82 % over the same period last year.The shipping cost of Shanghai to Europe was US $ 859 per 20 -foot container, which also fell 85 % over the same period last year.There are also container ship companies that this is a non -profitable price level.
The reason for the slowdown in cargo transportation is the excess inventory accumulated in the European and American retail industry.Most of the final consumer products such as furniture, clothing and toys from Asia to Europe and the United States.Due to the confusion of the supply chain under the new crown epidemic, more retail companies ensure inventory, and consumption growth is slowly under inflation.The inventory has become surplus. Since the second half of 2022, the transportation volume has decreased rapidly.
Although US retail sales exceeded last month, there are also opinions that the current consumption is strong, but it can be seen that the new import demand is not strong.
The Sea Intelligence of the Maritime Survey Company pointed out: "The inventory of the retail and wholesale industry has increased, and the adjustment is not sufficient. It is expected to temporarily cause a negative impact on container transportation."
The market conditions of bulk boats such as iron ore and coal are also weak.The comprehensive price trend reflecting the market market of the bulk ship is the "Baltic Dry Dry Index (1000 in 1985)", as of 1172 as of May 26, which is about 30 % lower than the high point since the beginning of the year (May 10, 1640).
In China, China, the import momentum of iron ore and coal has weakened, and the supply and demand of ships loading slowly.
After mid -February, with the termination of strict epidemic prevention policies and the end of the Spring Festival holiday, China has expanded imports due to active economic activities, but the current demand has not been expected, resulting in a decline in the index.
