Source: Wind Media
Author: Zhang Gong Xiong
The US Treasury Bond default has also become a very important issue in the world in recent days.In the latest round of reports, the White House economic adviser warned that if debt defaults occur, the US economy will be severely damaged.Among them, the most disastrous long -term debt defaults may cause 8.3 million people to unemployment, GDP dropped by 6.1%, and the stock market plummeted by 45%.It sounds very thrilling!
We first observed the US debt default with the recent series of US bank failure.Recently, the first and banks closed down and were acquired by JP Morgan Chase at a low price.This is the largest bank closure incident in the United States after the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, the banking bank, and Yinmen Bank.This proves that the closure of the US banking industry has indeed happened.According to the latest report released by the Hoover Research Institute of Stanford University, more than 2,300 among 4,800 banks across the United States are already in a state of incapable debt.These include a large multinational bank with an asset of more than a trillion yuan and three large national banks.This can be said to worsen the banking industry that is on the verge of collapse in the United States.
In addition, the Federal Reserve has increased the 10th rate hikes since March 2023, and has increased by 25 basic points. Federal fund interest rates have been adjusted to 5%to 5.25%.Looking back at the last time the United States raised its interest rates in 2006, at that time, it raised interest rates 17 times in a row, from 1%in 2004 to 5.25%in 2006. At that timeEssenceThe financial crisis is even more dangerous, coupled with the dual constructive effects of European Credit Credit.This wave of financial crisis cannot be underestimated!
Look at the total debt in the United States has reached the historical limit of 31.4 trillion dollars (42 trillion yuan), which is about to face the risk of debt defaults.US Treasury Minister Yellen also warned that if the US debt crisis does not take measures, it will have a breach of contract at the end of June this year.At the same time, Verser Kemille, the largest military manager and a legendary investor behind Soros, believes that according to his estimated actual US debt burden is nearly 200 trillion dollars, this astronomical number is equivalent to Taiwan's total budget for 3,000 years!
What is worth thinking about is: Why did the U.S. government actively create panic this time?For the internal, each time the two parties in the United States encounters a presidential election, a debt -limited drama will be hyped up, but it will always solve the work before the US government closes.To the outside world, all economic allies that scare the world: the United States is still the largest economy in the world.If the United States has a fever, countries must also sneeze with a cold.Therefore, in order to prevent the US economy from collapse, the whole world must work together to help the United States go through difficulties.There are only one approach for decades: you can buy US Treasury bonds for foreign exchange deposits you earn.
Her main persuasion is of course the world's largest trading country and foreign exchange reserves holders, but in recent years, she has reduced its holdings of the most US debt in recent years.Recently, Yellen said in his speech at Hopkins University: China helps the United States to solve debt problems with the common responsibilities and obligations of the world, and it is also the common interests of the two countries.Is this used or intimidating?Everyone can see it.In the Third Battle of the Sino -U.S. Trade War entered the third phase of the comprehensive war.To put it bluntly, if China buys a large number of US Treasury bonds at this moment, it is: the two countries are fighting for money to fund the other party to buy shells!
In fact, the United States is playing with a double spring game: while raising interest rates to harvest the world's wealth; while quantifying and loose purchasing and merging high -quality medium and large banks in the United States.In fact, everyone is too worried about whether U.S. Treasury mines. The biggest holders of U.S. Treasury bonds are not China and Japan, but the Federal Reserve.Since the closure of Silicon Valley Bank, the Fed has prepared a 4.5 -mega quantized loose quota to prepare for a bottom: large banks have eaten small and medium -sized banks; large banks are incorporated into the control of the Fed.
However, this two -sided method will let the world see the means of maintaining the world's hegemony.Recently, China, Russia, Middle East oil -producing countries, Southeast Asia, and South America have continued to settle currencies with US dollars as the US dollar, and have sounded funeral clocks for US dollars and US bonds as the core!
The US hegemony is still there, but the US dollar and US debt have become yellow flowers yesterday.
