The president and parliamentary election held by Turkey on May 14, known as the most important event in the year.(Editor's: This article was written before yesterday's election.) The President of Justice and Development Party (AKP) President Erdogan lagging behind the main opponent and the Republican Party leader Kilicdaroglu, the Republican Party leader,The latter was widely supported by the Alliance.If Erdogan is defeated, this election will have global significance.It proves that in recent years, the phenomenon of erosion of democracy around the world can be reversed. Even strong people with deep power can also be rejected.
Although other similar leaders including former US President Trump and former Brazilian President Bosonaro, in recent years, they have also lost in the election. The tasks faced by Turkish opposition are even more difficult.The country's slide to comprehensive authoritarianism is nearing its end.Erdogan has been in power for more than 20 years. It is far from that Trump or Posonaro can reach it, and has been using this time to transform the country according to its own image.
Erdogan controls all Turkey political departments in a formal or informal way to further concentrate on the centralized government.There is almost no checks and balances on his presidential term: the parliament is just an eraser, and the judicial department is responsible for him.The army was weakened; the police also served him faithfully.He alliance with the Right -wing Nationalist Movement (MHP) means that he can mobilize a semi -organized militia forces at will (the opposition suspects that the organization has participated in the campaign rally held by Elzulum, and uses stones to use stonesAttacking the Mayor Istanbul Ima Momorgru and supporters).
The corruption of the regime nourishes a national network consisting of relatives and political appointed people. If Kiliqidalro has won, they will be the biggest losers.
Turkish media is also in Erdogan's firm control.Most TV channels and paper media have continuously published reports of pro -righteousness and development of the party, while opposition candidates are forced to compete through online interviews and social media.Former Democratic Party (HDP), the first party of the Kurdish power, participated in the campaign in prison.
It is understandable that many international observer can win doubt about whether the opponents can win, or to say more about whether Erdogan can tolerate failure.After all, leaders who accumulate so much power often do not give up voluntarily.The opposition voters were warned not to have too much hope.
But such "realism" ignored one point: the reason why we need to guess how much Erdogan's eventually was driven down, it was precisely the result of opposing the group's stubborn refusal to abandon hope.Just as Weber's lecture "Politics as a kind of business" in 1919: "Unless you make impossible attempts again and again, you cannot achieve possible goals."
People have forgotten, but a common complaint about Turkey in the former Erdogan era is that the people of the country lack the understanding of democracy and a real citizen culture.It is said that the Turks always hope that the armed forces will save them from the political crisis.If this description is really accurate, the Turkish opposition will now be scared like Russia's opposition.
But the status quo is not the case.
Regardless of the results of the election, the toughness of Turkey's democratic forces has been effectively proven.Most oppositions in the country unite to support single presidential candidates, which promise to restore Erdogan's overthrow system in 2017.Many reporters, politicians, and folk social leaders were imprisoned, but others were still working hard.Many ordinary people were arrested for false allegations such as insulting Erdogan or posting in social media, but the public did not stop criticizing the regime.
Many volunteers voluntarily supervise voting and protect the voting box.The private social organization organized buses to send the victims who have been displaced in the recent earthquake to vote back to their registered cities.The core of these efforts is that people believe that in the face of unwavering opposition, no strong man looks as powerful as he looks like.
In addition, those who fight for the democracy of Turkey can only rely on themselves, not rely on the army, or even rely on the international community.Erdogan's support from other authoritarian leaders is even more obvious, but the democratic government has also taken his attitude towards him.Western leaders may complain about Erdogan, but they are willing to trade with him as needed, whether to reduce unconventional immigrants or restart Ukraine food exports.In some ways, the victory of the opposition will bring more uncertainty to the West.
If the opposition won more votes than Erdogan, the credit should be completely belonging to the Turkish people.By actively fighting the dictator, they once again show that the pursuit of democracy is not limited to the West.No matter what will happen in the future, their efforts are the best guarantee for the victory of the democratic system.
Author Ayse Zarakol is a professor of international relations at the University of Cambridge
The latest works are
Before the rise of the West: the rise and decline of the oriental world order
English Original Title: Turkey ’s Democratic Resiliation
Copyright: Project syndicate, 2023.
