Liu Birong: The changes and unchanged situation in the Middle East

Source: Zhongshi News Network

Author: Liu Birong

On May 7, the Arab League Foreign Minister's meeting was held in Cairo and agreed to let Syria join again.In November 2011, Syria was expelled from the Arab League for the Arab League for the "Spring of Arabia" in November 2011. After being isolated for nearly 12 years, it was re -welcomed back to the Arab League.The Arab Spring, which was booming at the beginning, was like a page that hadn't turned over in the past, and everything returned to the origin.

This ending makes people smile bitter.But did the Middle East really not change anything?At least one obvious change is in front of it: the United States is not happy to see the Syrian return to the Arab League, but it can't stop it.The influence of the United States in the Middle East has begun to decline.

Behind Assad is Iran and Russia. When the relationship between Saudi Arabia and Iran is tense, the Arab countries will naturally not accept Syria to return to the Arab League.But today the Saudi Kingdom and Iran have begun reconciliation, and the alliance has re -accepted Syrian to become water.Because Syria is the Arabs after all, the league has reconciled with Syria, and she can pull her back a little bit from the Persian.

This policy has been used before the outbreak of the Spring Arab Spring.The United States had been in contact with Syria for two years through secret diplomacy at the time, hoping to pull Assad from Iran.However, when the diplomacy was slightly effective, the Arab spring broke out of Arabic spring.

The United States hopes that Assad can reform itself, so that the United States can support both democratic movements without having to sanction Syria.Unfortunately, Assad is subject to the conservative forces of the military, and often announces reform in the morning, but has been withdrawn and targeted in the afternoon.The United States waited for a while to confirm that Syria could not reform, and then sanctioned Syrian, and suggested that the Arab Alliance out of Syria.

But the 12 -year diplomatic isolation and the Syrian civil war, in addition to causing a large number of dead injuries and 14 million people, Assad still stands still.To make matters worse, the international economic sanctions on Syria forced Damascus to take the road to drug trafficking.The drug -made or indulgent drug "Fen Naiwan", the market size is estimated to be 3.4 billion US dollars (S $ 4.5 billion), which makes countries suffer deeply and can't help it.Peninsula TV said that drugs have become a negotiating chip for Syrian to return to the Arab League.That is, it is not that the Arab country returns to the league to exchange Syria to combat drug trafficking, but Syrian Syria to combat drug trafficking exchange to return her to the league.This is really ironic.

In addition to drug problems, countries also hope to talk to Syria for refugees.If the situation in the Middle East stabilizes, can refugees return home?However, some refugees said they were unwilling to return to their hometowns before they could not ensure safety.How to do this?

There are some regions in Syria controlled the hands of resistance.Who should the Arab League and Syrian settle?So we found that as long as you start reconciliation internationally, there are always some partners who have been fighting hands in the past.This is the case for the Kurds, and the refugees may be like this.

The earliest contact with Syria in the Arab League was the UAE and Barin, but was stopped by Trump.But today the situation has changed, and the relationship between the US -Saisa is getting fading. Saudi Arabia wants to take its own way to promote the heavy acceptance of Syria with Egypt behind it. The United States has unable to stop it.Saudi officials said that the Saudi Kingdom was willing to associate with all parties, but he did not intend to actively build a bureau in diplomacy and take the initiative to attack.The meaning of this sentence is that the Saudi Kingdom will not be full of attempts as he had been actively involved in the Civil War.But even if the Saudi State does not want to build a bureau, Syria returns to the Arab League's new bureau.Which countries on the new stage will appear on the stage and become the focus of future attention.