Source: Hong Kong 01

Author: Ye Dehao

Erdogan, who has always been the prime minister and president, has been a 20 -year -old Turkey, and has been a thorn in the eyes of European and American countries for many years.This year, the election of the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Turkey may help them remove this "eye nail".

After the challenges of the military coup in 2016, Erdogan and Western countries farther away. In addition to the implementation of high -pressure governance of alien dissidents in China, it is not respectful to the human rights value of the West (such as LGBTQ rightsIn addition), Erdogan was linked to Russia in foreign affairs and purchased the S-400 air defense system from Russia as a NATO member; many times in the country threatened Europe by millions of Middle East refugees;Conflict; ignored Europe and the United States against attacks in the Kurdish armed forces in northern Syria; in the Russian and Ukraine War, they did not sanction Russia with NATO brigade, and even became the smuggling destinations of sanctions and the beneficiaries of cheap energy imports in Russia.Sweden joined the process of NATO.

The Turkish election on May 14 was the largest political challenge since Erdogan took power in 2003.

The opposition is expected to "hit a hit"?

In recent years, Turkey's domestic inflation is high. Last year, more than 80%(official figures were questioned as underestimated). In the past ten yearsIn the 1990s, Erdogan, which was famous for its political achievements in Istanbul City and created Turkey's "economic miracle" in the past ten years, and lost its "capable" image.The "economic belief" of "economic belief" with "interest rate reduction" and the intervention of the Turkish central bank makes people even more invisible to the hope of economic recurrence.

By the Great Turkish earthquake in February this year, the central government's disaster relief was slow, and the problem of "tofu residue" in building a wide range of buildings eventually caused more than 50,000 people to die.At the time of the people's complaints, Erdogan blamed God's will.Erdogan also has a policy of exemption illegal construction policy, which has also become the target of the criticism.

So far, this 69 -year -old "epoch -making" character that allowed Islam to walk into the Turkish elite politics, once created high economic growth, and repelled the soldiers who dominated politics for decades, may be lost in the flat voting boxregime.

In this election, six opposition parties, which were originally scattered and ideologically different, formed the "National Alliance", which jointly recommended the 74 -year -old Republican Party (CHPCalecidalu Lu, the leader of modern Turkey, as a presidential candidate, changed the situation where the opposition parties competed with each other in 2018.

At the same time, the People's Democratic Party (HDP), dominated by the Kurds, not only did not send people to run for votes, but also showed that the support of the Kellechidalu Lu in the support of the Turkish nationalist party.Everything has to pull down Erdogan.

According to the pre -election polls, Crechidalu Lu's support led Erdogan with a range of one or two percentage points.If no one gets more than half of the votes (there are still two other candidates who have defeated), Kellechidaolu and Erdogan will enter the second round of voting on May 28th.Step in.Looking back at the two presidential elections in 2018 in 2014 (after the constitutional amendment to the presidential power), Erdogan won more than half of the votes in the first round of votes, and he left the opponent significantly.In contrast, today's situation is really bad.

Three days before the voting (11th), one of the defeated candidates in the presidential election Muharrem?EssenceBecause Yijie was originally a candidate for the Republican People's Party in 2018, about 2 to 3%of public opinion support is more likely to flow to Crechidalolu.At the time of Ke and Egypt, they were very close to the 50%threshold, and the change before the election was more likely to let Klesacidalolu defeat Erdogan in the first round.

Two political duel

Faced with the serious challenges of the opposition, Erdogan, who has long controlled most media, eliminates political and academic laws and other sectors of the law, has also launched a series of benefits for the election to the election.Policies and image engineering.He increased the national retirement and minimum wages with several times, launched the free monthly household natural gas cost, and increased the salary of 700,000 public officers a few days before the election, and promised to increase the minimum wage after he was elected.

On the other side, Erdogan also "happened" before the election created a number of pioneers that showed the national strength of Turkey, including trying to sit on the first local manufacturing electric vehicle, start the gas supply of the Turkish black sea natural gas fields, and enable it.The first nuclear power plant in Turkey was unveiled for the first Turkish "aircraft carrier" (Erdogan), which mainly dominated by drones.

These actions seem to re -evoke the people's memories of Erdogan's "the same feelings" and show that only Erdogan can allow Turkey to reproduce the "Orman Empire" internationally internationally.

Erdogan, which is in vain for the "strong man image", is another political extreme by many Western media called "Turkish version of Gandhi".Although it was originally called "Gandhi", which was originally protested by Erdogan's "Gandhi", which was a big deal, it was obviously because of its appearance.Old bureaucracy, no political passion, and no charm of speeches. This leader style has indeed form a strong rigidity comparison with Erdogan.

For example, Kellechidalolu's representative promotional video is that he is sitting in the kitchen and holding a onion to tell the suffering of inflation under Erdo's stability; in another publicity video,He generously acknowledged that he was the orthodox Muslim identity of "Alevi" and emphasized tolerance.These clips are in front of the Battleship to declare the "Turkish Century" coming, or criticize the Erdogan of the opposition to fight for LGBT people.

Western hopes are overflowing to words

In terms of domestic politics, Klesacaolu emphasized that it will make policy decisions through consultations with various factions.The independence of the judicial organs re -implement the Congress system, and returns the power of the president back to Congress. It also shows that it will abolish the "insulting president" actively used by Erdogan in 2014.

At the same time, although the "National Alliance" also contains a political party that adopts a tough attitude towards the Kurds, the outside world expects that Kleshdalu Lu will release the Kurdish political prisoners, including the former leader of the People's Democratic Party,It will help reconstruct the peaceful resolution of the Kurdish problem.

Economically, Crechidalolu will return to the mainstream of the economy, respect the independence of the central bank, and let it suppress the inflation with interest rate hikes.It will also enhance the confidence of the outside world for Turkey's economic governance and help attract foreign investment to re -inflow into Turkey.(Erdogan also seems to see its "interest rate reduction anti -inflation" difficulties. Recently, people have noticed that the former Turkish Minister Mehmet? IM? EK appeared in Eldian by the 2009 to 2015, which had refused to stick to politics from his hand.Election activities seem to want to signal Erdogan intentionally considering the orthodox return of economic governance.)

In foreign relations, Kleshdaru Lu advocates re -start the procedure of Turkey to join the European Union and will obey the European Human Rights Court.He also told Time Magazine that he would rebuild the relationship between Turkey and the United States, NATO and the European Union, so that Turkey "re -turned into part of the civilized world."

For soilErqi finally appeared a politician who could defeat Erdogan. The expectations of Western political and public opinion circles were difficult to hide.Many media editorials have high -profile support to support Klequiddalu Lu.The intermediate left -wing party alliance in the European Parliament also issued a statement to support the visa -free treatment process of Turkey and the European Union, saying that the opposition party represented by Kellechidalolu is "democracy, human rights, freedom, cooperation, and Turkey and Europe."" ".The question is ... Will Erdogan admit defeat?

With the retirement of Injie on the 11th, Kellechidalolu's chances of victory are getting higher, and people are worried that Erdogan will undermine the fair and fair election or refuse to recognize the election results.Erdogan has been suspected of "front subjects" several times.

In the 2015 Congress election, Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost most (when fashion is the parliamentary system).Conflict, finally took the opportunity to re -election to win.

In the constitutional referendum in 2017, Erdogan canceled the seal of valid votes, which caused fake tickets to question. European organizations with prison also questioned the official decision of Turkish elections.

In 2019, Erdogan's "Old Nest" Istanburg Mayor fell into the hands of the Republican People's Party's Ekrem? Mamo? Lu, and he promoted the official election official to cancel the mayor by separate mayorThe results of the voting (the results of other positions in the same election were retained), but in the end Imamo Lu got more votes in the re -election, which can be considered clumsy.(However, at the end of last year, Emamo Lu had been ruled to insult officials, sentenced to seven months of prison, and deprived of political rights.)

Although the "front subject" is so, analysis is generally optimistic about the effectiveness of the election.Unless Erdonan dares to openly destroy Turkey's election procedures, he can do very limited.In the theory, Turkey's ordering mechanisms are theoretically monitored by party personnel. Before this election, whether it was the opposition party or the folk groups that sprung up like a bamboo shoot, it was not easy to organize tickets.

At the same time, the Turkish people are very enthusiastic about the democratic system, and the voting rate often reaches a high level of nearly 85%, which has greatly aggravated the political risks of Erdogan to negate the results of the election -don't forget, Erdogan 2016One of the reason why he was able to attack the soldiers in the year was that the public responded to his call to "democratic democracy", and thousands of walking on the street would not be afraid of the real ammunition to block the tank.

Therefore, unless the voting result gap is only different, Erdogan, who is defeated, probably will not really overthrow the election at all.

Erdogan's potential defeat is of course Turkish politics in the symbolic sense, and even the earthquake of Eurasia politics.But how big this earthquake is actually questionable.

Waiting for the failure of the new government is the best policy?

On the one hand, in addition to the presidential election on May 14, Congress elections will be held.At present, polls show that Erdogan ’s justice and Development Party and the“ PeOPLE ’s Alliance and Kellechidalu Lu’ s “National Alliance” are comparable, and the former is more likely to win.The majority of Congress.It can be seen that even if Klechidalolu can really defeat Erdogan in the end, its governance will not be smooth.

At the same time, the parties with different positions behind Klechidalolu may also cause the new government to fall into a stagnation state of "decision and decision".Although the parties have reached a quite detailed policy consensus on paper, whether the Turk people who are used to the governance of strong people can accept the political culture of the ruling alliances in the ruling alliance, which is also unknown.

On the other hand, Kleshdaru Lu's return to "Economics Orthodox" will inevitably bring lasting pain to the Turkish economy.The independent central bank's interest rate hike policy will be likely to cause the Turkish economy to fall into decline, and its high years of inflation will take a long time to fall.Although Kleshdaru Lu hopes to "replenish" the underlying people in the economic adjustment period with various social expenditures, the negative economic environment will make it easier for the people to lose their confidence in the new government -especially supporting ErdogoNearly half of An's citizens were originally dissatisfied with Klechidalolu.

At this time, Erdogan, who returned to the opposition seat, can use it to be far higher than the political charm of Kleshdaru Lu, as well as the consistency of justice and the development of the party branch of the development of the party.road.The changes in Capitarian system claimed by Kleshrolu will open a convenient door for Erdogan.Therefore, even if it encountered setbacks in the voting box, Erdogan's best means seemed to ignite the wind in the wild while waiting for the new government to fail.

Just as the five elections have finally successfully re -entered the throne of Israel, Neitaniahu, for political strong people such as Erdogan, a setback of an election is often not decisive.