This is not the best time, the worst era;
This is not the age of wisdom, but the stupid year;
This is not a period of trust, but a doubt.
Readers who have read Dickens Shuangcheng must think that I have made a mistake in translation.In fact, my changes are intentional, which is used to open the meaning of this article: The world we live in today is really bad, and stupid and full of suspicion.
The Russian and Ukraine War has been fighting for more than a year, and it is said that the big counterattack in spring is about to begin.I have a particularly ominous feeling for Europeans, because the European War was the World War, which has been verified twice in the last century, and they are also charcoal.I used to think that the Europeans became smarter, and the EU's integration was good. It was not a big deal to be cut into half in the European mainland during the Cold War.Unfortunately, they still messed up.
On the one hand, the peace dividend is disappearing; on the other hand, the global wave of globalization in the past three or forty years is also leaving us.
What is globalization?To put it simply, it is the international division of labor. Whoever is most good at doing is played in this advantage, and then funds, technology, talents, labor, land, and markets can be exchanged and complementary. Everyone depends on each other and forms a global integration.
If you don't do this, the disadvantages are obvious.Just like a person, hunting, farming, weaving, cooking and cooking must be arranged by yourself.Therefore, those countries that retreat to themselves and do not want to participate in the international exchange system must be the least efficient and poor in material.
But now, the reversal has occurred, and the decoupling and blocking movements in science and technology are frequent. Various tariffs and non -tariff barriers have become more and more. Recently, it is used to decorate risks, but obviously trade has been weapons.In terms of industrial policy, the arms race has also begun, and everyone is in Ryoringmdash; mdash; that is, based on security considerations, use subsidies, taxes and other means to leave strategic values in China or re -establish an advantage.EssenceIf you can't do one -stop production, you need to find someone to cooperate, and choose Friendshoring to draw a circle and play with your own.
It's just that the so -called Friends does not necessarily care.For example, in order to support its zero carbon industry, the inflation reduction bill passed by the extreme protectionism has furious the European Union.In the era of against globalization, this is still the case for friends, and it is not necessary to be soft to geographical strategic opponents.
At the movement ceremony of the Arizona factory at the end of last year, Zhang Zhongmou of TSMC's Zhang Zhongmou revealed a saying of a large number of quoted lungs: globalization was almost dead, and free trade was almost dead.Many people still want them to come back, but I don't think they will come back.
Trade has never fair?
Indeed, everything that happened in the field of high -end chips in the near future is no different from the bullying scene in life. The US chip Quartet (Chip 4) is just like the four groups who just talk about it.In contrast, the so -called economic coercion of China's so -called lobster and wines belongs to a small trouble.However, its trade records are not splendid, and the transfer of compulsory technology is even more severe, and it has been criticized for a long time; there are products that can interfere with ideas.There is no chance of meeting.Therefore, Biden is going to ban Tiktok. The main opposition is the American user, and China can't say it at all.In short, when any side, when one finger pointed at others, he forgot that three fingers were also pointing at yourself.
Of course, globalization has its own disadvantages, but the benefits are far more bad.One of them is to suppress the cost of life.
I know that everyone feels the pressure of inflation at the moment, but if the time shaft is stretched, there are better things, and today's income level is more affordable.For example, two or thirty years ago, one coat was two or three hundred yuan. Now the money has become smaller, it is still two or three hundred yuan, and the quality is not bad.Some people may mind their origin of Vietnam or Bangladesh, but think about it, and it is also a good psychology from factories in Asia, and the psychology is balanced.
The price of furniture seems to stay in the last century.Six or seven years ago, I met with a few friends to a place called Le Cong near Guangzhou. There were furniture cities and furniture factories everywhere. As a result, I bought it for three days. I had to book a container to return all the loot.I think if you are young when you are young, there will be such convenience to purchase directly at the source, and you will probably not need a family.
Don't forget that there are online shopping. If you do n’t go home, you can see the color of the world. From the toilet paper to explosive bags, everything is available.This is also given by globalization.
Recently, I read an article on the website of the World Economic Forum to analyze the price changes of goods and services in the United States for more than 20 years. Among them, medical and education and house prices have risen.However, many daily necessities have fallen in prices. For example, Tablet TVs. At the turn of the century, a price is about 17%of the median income (about 420,000 US dollars), but now it is less than the median number today.Can buy home by 1%of income (about $ 50,000).Mobile phone networks, toys, etc. are also cheaper than before.In addition, clothes and furniture are the same as us. Even after more than this year's high inflation, the price is still the same as 20 years ago, and there is almost no ups and downs.
The people at the bottom of the United States are now opposed to globalization, because they have uneven distribution and lost work, but they have forgotten that they have been compensated at the point of flat at the point.In the future, if you have to consume American manufacturing products, I can only wish them good luck.A component is produced by American workers and completed the assembly iPhone 14. How many American workers can afford it. I am very doubtful.
The opportunity window for poverty alleviation has been closed?
The second disadvantage of global ebb to ebb is the hope of many people from poverty alleviation.
In the past, due to the division of labor and the flow of trade and investment, some countries and regions developed rapidly.First, the four small dragons in Asia, later the world's world factory and the four small tigers. Later, Vietnam also caught up. Hundreds of millions of people on the planet were rescued from poverty.
Looking back at the entire human history, the gorgeous turn of such a scale is unprecedented before. Unfortunately, it is difficult to copy it in the future.When efficiency is first, and the principles of mutual benefit and win -win are no longer respected, the opportunity window for poverty alleviation has almost disappeared.If you consider the arrival of intelligent robots, the situation is even worse.The job that is taken away by the robot is definitely more than they bring.Maybe now it can only replace 10 workers, but what should I do if they have become a hundred or thousands of?Imagine those countries that have missed globalization and still fall in the back. How can there be a bargaining chip of competition and bargaining?
In the end, the geo -economy becomes a fragmented world, which is dangerous.This is the third layer of concerns.
This ominous sign has appeared in the 1930s. Today, from the old photos or textbooks, people have learned from the Great Depression.However, it is relatively ignored, as well as the government's highly intervene in industrial policies, the tragic trade war, and at the social and political level, nationalism and populism look up, right -wing forces, and even the rising of the country, etc.The situation seems to have known each other?
Human greatest forgetfulness is forgotten history
Among them, the lessons of the trade war are the most profound.Its iconic incident was Smt Mdash, which passed by the US Congress in 1930; Holy Tariff Act.After the bill took effect, the United States raised various import tariffs, while European countries had revenge, and the trade war was out of control.Give everyone a terrible number. From 1929 to 1934, the global trade volume has shrunk by two -thirds!Therefore, the mainstream economics opinion believes that the trade war has exacerbated the Great Depression, and the idea of protecting the domestic market in American politicians not only failed to allow companies to survive, but insteadAfter exhausting, a fatal blow is suffered, and a larger area of bankruptcy occurs.In Europe, the people of the people are getting worse and worse, and the continued turbulence of society and politics has eventually triggered World War II.
It can be said that protectiveism, Great Depression, and World War II have all rumors.After the end of World War II, people remembered lessons, began to reduce tariffs, and set up a multilateral trading system.Helpless, it seems that the old generals must be in the world for a long time, and the old words must be divided into this time, and now globalization has come again.
The trade war of that year was mainly started between the two sides of the Atlantic Ocean, and participated in the industrialized power; today's protagonist is in the Giants.The second largest.At that time, the neighbors were the neighbor, engaged in trade confrontation, and eventually laid the foreshadowing of the war. What about now?There are pessimists saying that decourse, re -industrialization, etc. aren't they preparing for war?
Is the human greatest forgetfulness, is it forgotten history?However, the Great Depression and World War II actually didn't have a long time.
Or in our individual or civilized genes, there is really a mechanism of self -destruction. Intermittent, always self -sin?
But compared to the two eras, it is still a little different.The first is that after so many years, it is too deep to embed each other. There are me and me in you, how easy it is to be discouraged.The second is that the economic power distribution of the world today is far widespread than that year, and many countries still support free trade and recognition of the multilateral system.For example, the vast groups of the BRICS Group (China are also among them), the Asianan in the rise, and the vast number of groups collectively referred to as the global south.There is a share of the feast, and even the European Union has like -minded people within the European Union.As long as there are enough such countries, the trade backward is not too powerful. Zhang Zhongmou's death prophecy may not be true.
In the final analysis, the test is humanity.The evil is obviously in the upper hand at this moment, so that the international version of the information read every day is full of clamor and suffocating. Many politicians are leading the people to run madly on the bad, stupid, and suspicious world.
In order to warn the world, I allow me to change the sentence of Shuangcheng: This running all the way is not in heaven, but in the opposite direction, go; hellip;
