Recently, the youth of Guangdong, China, returned to the countryside to help the "High -quality Development Project of Hundreds of counties and thousands of villages and villages" for three years.The plan is clear that by the end of 2025, a total of 100,000 young people will be organized to help, contact 100,000 young people to return to their hometowns, and train 100,000 young people to improve their rural skills and strive to achieve 10,000 young people enter the county to enter the county to go to the countryside.Employment and cultivation supports 10,000 young county entrepreneurship.A news review on April 22, 2023, the Chao News Client, believes that "the purpose is to alleviate the pressure of urban employment."This policy and related interpretation made people think of the relevant theory of Wen Tiejun.
From the perspective of Wen Tiejun, a second -level professor of Renmin University of China and Dean of the School of Agriculture and Rural Development, since the establishment of the government in the mainland government, New China has experienced many economic crises.The earliest economic crisis broke out in 1950.Wen Tiejun believes that this is the continuation of the malignant inflation formed by the Republic of China. When the Kuomintang evacuated, they took away all the gold reserves. The liberation zone added currency to the Kuomintang's war and maintaining the operation of the city, resulting in further inflation deteriorating.Prices rose 74 times in 1949. The fiscal deficit was twice the fiscal revenue.
What should I do in the face of the economic stalls left by the Kuomintang government?The solution given by the mainland government at the beginning of the government is -land reform.As a result of this policy, nearly 90%of the population of China returned to the traditional small agricultural economy and cut off with the modern urban economy.Wen Tiejun pointed out that most people return to the countryside and re -return to the self -sufficient farming economy is an important condition for the recovery of New China to recover, and it is also an important institutional foundation for the soft landing of the crisis during the Republic of China.
The second crisis broke out from 1952 to 1960.In 1950, the Korean War made the Sino -Soviet -establishment strategic alliance. After that, the Soviet Union aid a total of US $ 5.4 billion in industrial equipment and technological investment.China has quickly formed the State Capitalist industry, which dominates the Stalin model, and mainly completes the "socialist transformation" of all private industrial and commercial and small farmers in 1956 according to the requirements of the system.System evolution.
But the Chinese cities and governments "fully souped" in the first half of the 1950s, causing the mainland government leaders to be vigilant.Under the demands of China's adherence to territorial integrity and sovereignty, the Soviet Union suddenly interrupted the investment in China in 1957, and the mainland government lacked capital to continue to promote industrialization.As a response, in 1958, the central government of the mainland government proposed to "mobilize two enthusiasm", let the local government decentralize power, rely on local fiscal funds and resources to participate in the national industrial construction that was originally monopolized by the central government.
Local government lacks experience. Under the "institutional path dependence", it imitates the heavy industrial model formed by the Soviet investment and actively promotes local industrialization blindly for the "Great Leap Forward", which further exacerbates China's fiscal deficit.At the same time, in order to digest and military industrial products, the industrial sector has occupied industrialization of agricultural surplus, mobilizing the centralized investment in labor, and lack of funds. Therefore, the people's commune movement was implemented in 1958, but it reduced agricultural production enthusiasm.A large amount of rural labor has left agricultural production for "large steel refining", and the supply of food has declined.China's liabilities to the Soviet Union need to be repaid with agricultural and animal husbandry products and mineral products, which has exacerbated the shortage of agricultural products.Affected by this, in 1959, the fiscal deficit crisis broke out in China, the economy fell into depression, and the Chinese economy entered the so -called three -year difficulties.
As a response measure, the Chinese government mobilized the excess labor of the city to the countryside on a large scale.From the autumn of 1962 to the summer of 1966, in four years, there were as many as 1.29 million young people in the countryside.
The third crisis broke out from 1962 to 1970.In the 1960s, the crisis of excess production in developed countries began to transfer the external transfer industry, which caused the domestic unemployment rate to rise, social contradictions, and the outbreak of social movements in various countries such as the United States, Italy, France, Japan, etc., forcing hegemonic countries to pass on domestic contradictions through foreign wars and subversion.Latin America, Africa, Indonesia, Vietnam, South Korea and other coup are frequently.
As a victorist in World War II, China has completed the dependence on and maintaining sovereignty against the United States and the Soviet Union, and has become a model for the third world. However, this has also exacerbated the hostility of China by the West and the Soviet Union Eastern Europe, and the geographical relationship is highly tense.In order to protect the preliminary formation of the military industry foundation, in 1964, China began to transfer the coastal manufacturing industry on a large scale in the Mainland.The three or five plans of four modernized goals were proposed in the year.
Under the condition of absolute scarcity of capital, farmers have mobilized farmers to replace the scarce capital elements with large -scale labor and maintain the national industrial system.It is precisely because of the repayment of foreign debt and the construction of the third line that China has a heavy burden. In 1967, the deficit crisis broke out, the economy fell again, and the labor force was unemployed.
In the same measures to respond to the second economic crisis. In 1968, the Chinese government once again mobilized the urban excess labor to go to the countryside to achieve soft landing of the urban crisis by passing the crisis at the rural areas.It is reported that in the past 10 years, the educated youth of the countryside has reached 16 million people across the country.
The fourth crisis broke out from 1969 to 1975.The 20 years of the Vietnamese war jointly supported by the United States to the outside world and the Soviet Union of China and the Soviet Union have been under pressure from the social movement combined by civil rights and anti -war, and urgently require strategic adjustments.At the same time, Sino -Soviet relations deteriorated and evolved into the border war in 1969, and the Soviet Union even threatened to implement nuclear threats on China.The United States cannot take the Soviet Union to use nuclear weapons to control China again and lose its strategic buffer, so they intervene and pass information to China.In order to fight against the Soviet Union, China also intends to reach a reconciliation with the United States to achieve a balance, and turned to economic construction based on the judgment of "China 20 years without war".
In order to adjust the industrial structure of partial troops, China began in 1972, and the central government of the mainland government introduced US $ 4.3 billion in equipment and technology (four -three programs).Autonomy cannot affect the economic system, nor can it affect the upper architecture and ideology.Due to the continuous additional investment from 1972 to 1974, the financial collection was unacceptable, the investment capacity decreased, and the urban unemployment increased.In 1974, the fiscal deficit crisis broke out, and large -scale unemployment tide occurred in the city again.
As a response, the third move to the countryside began, and the crisis moved to the countryside again. However, young people lacked revolutionary inspiration, and the difficulty of mobilization and social dissatisfaction increased significantly. Although the urban crisis was soft, it became the last time.
Wen Tiejun summarized his observation.He said: "Any crisis will cost a price, and the price of China's economic crisis is to move to the countryside." "China is a typical urban and rural dual structure society.Can be softened. "
It is necessary to make a brief introduction to China's urban and rural dual structure system here.
The urban and rural dual system originated from the planned economic system implemented after the founding of the People's Republic of China. The core is the urban and rural household registration system.The state clearly divides residents into two different household registrations: agricultural hukou and non -agricultural hukou, and on this basis, dozens of related institutions have been established.Ranks such as grain and oil supply system, labor employment system, social security system, etc.
This system sets a man -made division of cities from rural areas, so that non -agricultural hukou brings various privileges and welfare, forming a dual economic and social structure with incomplete urban and rural areas.Therefore, the dual difference between China's urban and rural structure is not only a difference in natural spatial structure, but also a difference in industrial structure and economic structure, but also a difference in institutional settings under national policy.
This is exactly what I think, Wen Tiejun's theory is toxic.If Wen Tiejun's theory under the planned economic thinking is adopted at the policy level, China's urban and rural dual system will not only be unsolved, but also further solidify because of his theory.It is very simple. According to this theoretical logic, the dualization of urban and rural areas can help find the flood discharge area for the urban economic crisis -once the city has an economic crisis, people who are difficult and difficult to employment can be used as "going up the mountains and going to the countryside".The policy to ride in the countryside can transfer the urban crisis to the local society.
The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist
