From the recent Sino -French oil giant to complete the first LNG (liquefied natural gas) cross -border RMB settlement transaction, Saudi Arabia cabinet approved to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Brazil announced its currency settlement arrangement with China;The governor's meeting discussed "financial independence and independence", and then announced that the oil country announced the reduction of production ... Suddenly, many countries "went to the US dollar" tide.And "going to the US dollar" is not a new drama, the French people have dominated once in history.
During World War II, the former hegemon British national strength was severely weakened, and it was unsuccessful that the international monetary system that was originally centered on the pound was unsustainable.In the summer of 1944, the 44th countries held a meeting in the Breton Forest Town, New Hampshire, USA, and signed a series of agreements to establish a new international monetary system centered on the US dollar.This is the Bretton Woods System that often mentioned.The core of this system is to establish the oversupply of the US dollar in the international trade system -the US dollar is directly linked to gold, and each ounce of gold is equal to $ 35, while the currency of each country is linked to the US dollar to form a adjustable fixed exchange rate system.
The French who have emphasized "strategic autonomy" have been criticized since the birth of the system.In 1946, Da Goghle, then France, pointed out sharply that this system gave the US dollar privilege, the US dollar as a privilege currency, and turned the world trade into a warehouse in the United States.Dai Goghle said, "Trade deficit appears in the United States, and it is not necessary to worry about reducing foreign exchange reserves like other countries. As long as you print more US dollars, you can exchange for products and labor without compensation."
Dai Gaulle's criticism and doubts finally evolved into a selling against the US dollar in 1958 and swept Europe.At this time, the US dollar selling frenzy rushed to the extreme in Europe.London's gold price rose to $ 41.5 per ounce, which means that the dollar has depreciated more than 20%.The average return on investment in this year was 16%in Europe, which was twice as high as the United States, attracting US $ 47 billion in US capital to Europe. In 1957, it was only $ 25 billion.It was also this year that the American gold reserve accelerated declined. In 1950, its total value was more than $ 40 billion. At this time, it was less than 20 billion US dollars.It exceeded the total value of its gold reserves at a time; this year, the US industrial output value fell 14%and exported atrophy. In addition to the large overflow of capital, the US international revenue and expenditure had a $ 2 billion deficit.This is the first US dollar crisis after the establishment of the Bretton Forest system.
This crisis has deeply stimulated Robert Triffin, a professor of economics at Yale University in the United States.After the establishment of the Bretton Forest system, Trifen has been studying to try to build a currency system that can maintain long -term stability of the world economy.In this US dollar crisis, Trifen has published its own research results, which is a very famous monograph in economic history -Gold and the Dollar Crisis.
The book elaborates the design defects of the Bretton Forest system in theory -due to the linked to the US dollar to gold, the currency of other countries is linked to the US dollar. At this time, the US dollar has become the only international pricing and settlement currency.However, the problem is also coming. In order to develop international trade, countries must use the US dollar as settlement and reserve currency. This will lead to the continuous precipitation of currencies flowing out of the United States overseas. For the United States, a long -term trade deficit will occur.The core premise of the currency is that the dollar currency must be stable and strong, which requires the United States to be a long -term trade surplus country.
This constitutes a paradox: First, the long -term trade deficit in the United States, the US dollar will inevitably depreciate. In this case, other countries are willing to continue to increase the US dollar?2. When the US dollar is about to depreciate, other countries will definitely exchange gold with a large amount of gold in the US dollar. How long can the golden reserve in the United States be maintained at this time?The inexplicable problem under this Bretton Forest system is the well -known Triffin Dilemma in economics, which also points out the fatal dynamics of the US dollar.
Brall in the Bran Forest System
Although Trifen is committed to changing this "dilemma", few people in the United States take it seriously.Johnson, the 36th President of the United States, ignored the problem directly. He used a responsibility to explain to the United States to print a large number of banknote printing: "The world's gold production is not enough to support the global currency system.Trade provides a vital liquidity. "As soon as this remark, Europe was uproar, because they knew that the United States had a large number of banknote printing, but they paid huge military expenditures for themselves.At that time, the United States was caught in the Vietnam War. By the end of 1967, the US government had spent more than $ 200 billion in the Vietnamese battlefield.
It is Dai Gaulle who took the lead in the first time.In 1965, the legendary general criticized the United States: "The United States enjoys super privileges created by the US dollar and deficit without tears. She uses a worthless waste paper to plunder the resources and factories of other ethnic groups." Perhaps it is specialIn the influence of Rifen theory, in 1967, he ordered the Bank of France to convert all the dollars held by France into gold.To this end, he even threatened to transport the kiss warships to the United States back to the gold that should belong to France.France's behavior has caused many European countries to follow. For a while, gold is hot.
The impact of this, the internal defects of the Bretton Forest system are completely exposed. These defects are mainly manifested as: 1. The international reserve status of the US dollar and the contradiction between international settlement;During, the asymmetry of policy coordination; 3. The two dilemma between internal and external goals under the fixed exchange rate system.
The "going to the US dollar" campaign initiated by Da Goghle made the United States scorching.Based on the Smithson Agreement in 1971, the US dollar depreciated by gold. At the same time, the United States refused to pay gold to foreign central banks.In February 1973, the US dollar depreciated further. Under the impact of speculative forces, the major currencies were forced to implement a floating exchange rate system. The Bretton Forest system completely collapsed.
Of course, France failed to benefit from the US dollar movement, because the Da Goghler saw the disadvantages of the Bretton forest system, but failed to propose a better solution.In January 1967, in order to show the economic achievements of governance, Da Goghle announced that from the date of information announcement, French franc and gold were freely exchanged at a fixed price.France.But the problem is that this move did not get out of the Terinian dilemma, but just link the dollar to gold directly and change to French franc and gold directly.
The crisis of Da Goghle's consciousness is near
As a result, as soon as the news came out, the British and American media touted how French francs were strong and how sufficient golden foundation.Among the popularity, financial speculators in various countries swarmed France. They transferred all the currencies that can be replaced from all over the world to make the French financial market extremely hot.At this time, Dai Gaulle did not realize that the crisis had quietly arrived, but appreciated the market heating and regarded it as the highest reward for his governance.
Good times, "May 1968 Events in France in 1968" started.The turmoil triggered a panic in foreign capital, and the French franc was replaced by French francs and was transported overseas.By the end of 1968, France lost 30%of the gold reserves.A hanging scene occurred: France, which de -to -US dollar, be undertaken the US currency crisis.
On the contrary, the United States benefited from France's de -US dollar movement, and successfully helped it to break free of gold's restraint.In 1973, the Bretton Forest system collapsed completely, but there was no solution -including Trifen's World yuan plan, which could accept it for all parties.) Only to establish.According to this system, the US dollar status has been reduced on the surface, from the Bretton Forest SystemThe only international price and settlement currency is reduced to currency with British pound, German Mark, French franc and yen.But in fact, it was a great liberation of the dollar -under the Bretton Forest Agreement system, the dollar was set up by the gold reserve.
Under the Jamaica system, it is completely unrestrained.The Federal Reserve has begun to printed US dollars in accordance with domestic debt, without having to take care of gold reserves.
This is the most suspicable place -the good day of the US dollar, in fact, it came from 1960 to 1970 to the US dollar.Of course, the Jamaica system failed to solve the Trifen's dilemma in the United States -in the Jamaica system, although the reserve currency diversified, the US dollar is still the international core currency.In order to develop international trade, all countries still mainly use the US dollar as settlement and reserve currency. This has led to the continuous precipitation of currencies flowing out of the United States overseas, and the US international revenue and expenditure fall into a long -term deficit.And this is the issue manipulated by Trump in recent years.
The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist
