Source: Report
Author: Wu Fangming
After the Silicon Valley Bank exploded thunder, the crisis was temporarily solved but still dormant to remove the thunder.This minefield is a bank deposit that has recently fled violently. It flows to the United States common currency market fund. At present, the scale of funds has soared to $ 5.2 trillion (6.92 trillion yuan).Worsening.
The demand for discounting windows from the Federal Reserve has declined, and the scale has dropped from US $ 110 billion to about 88 billion US dollars, showing that the crisis of Silicon Valley Bank's detonation is relieved, but banks are still asking the Fed for help.This can be glimpsed from the size of the Bank of America's use of the new financing tool (BTFP).The third week after the launch of the new financing instrument, it rose again. By the end of March, the scale increased by more than $ 10 billion, and the current total scale has reached about $ 65 billion.
On the other hand, the bank's deposit fugitive has flowed into the currency market funds by $ 300 billion in March, setting a record high since the peak of the epidemic in April 2020.In the week after the closure of the Silicon Valley Bank, that is, in mid -March, the currency market fund inflow was about $ 130 billion, and it also set a record record from the outbreak of the crown disease.
The current nature of funds escape from the bank and the previous stage.In the previous stage of bank crowding, the deposit outflow was driven by the bank's solvency dilemma; the current stage is "awakening of sleeping households", behind it is driven by the interest rate difference between bank interest rates and policy interest rates.Because the interest rate provided by the bank cannot compare the high -magnification rate of the federal funds and the currency market funds, and the latter can provide more secure asset mortgage protection.At present, the currency market funds are mainly invested in risk -free assets such as short -term government bonds. With the rise of rising, the average annual interest rate of the currency fund exceeds 4%, far exceeding the bank's deposit rate of 0.5%.This is a natural and reasonable self -interest.
So in the mentality of pursuing high interest rates and low -risk, many deposits continued to rise, and the flow of funds flowed into the Federal Reserve's reservoir overnight reverse repurchase balance. As of the end of last month, the water level of the reservoir increased significantly to more than 2.3The dollar is a significant increase in more than 330 billion US dollars from late February.
Under the non -adjustment policy, the Fed may not return to the physical banking system, so the follow -up effect of the Silicon Valley Bank crisis will continue.Regional small banks.
What is still paradoxical is that on the one hand, the Fed wants to help the banking system to maintain liquidity and security, but the currency market fund is not a deposit institution, but the overall deposit of the bank has reduced the overall deposit of the bank.The permanent loan tools of the Feds may eventually become a fragile link.
History has always been repeatedly repeated, will the wheels repeat the hometown, and repeatedly staged a drama of bank crowding?
Looking at the above, it can be found that the liquidity and economic security radar can find that the wounds of small and medium -sized banks in the United States have not completely healed, and the risks in the middle and long term are needed.
Furthermore, once the bank's deposit continues to flow, it will also affect the tightening of bank loans and chain reactions, which will eventually affect economic growth.Things are always intertwined. The problem of liquidity of banks is also like creating the currency tightening policy that the Federality wants, but it also improves the uncertainty of the economy.It also became the market's attention.
