Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao Agency Review
Trump has become the first former president in the history of American history. He was charged with 34 charges and was a news that caused a sensation in the world last week.Because Trump has announced the election of the 2024 presidential election earlier, he will also be the first US presidential candidate to be prosecuted by criminal prosecution.The prosecution decision of the Grand Big Jury in New York may not only change the US presidential campaign next year, but also become a watershed in the United States for politics.Regardless of whether Trown's sin is involved or not, it will become a precedent in the history of American politics and legal system.More striking than the lawsuit itself is that the Democratic and Republican parties have launched a new round of fighting around this lawsuit, causing justice to be involved in political struggle, what harm to the separation of the three powers of the United States, as well as the United StatesWhether a larger social turmoil will occur again.
The support rate will not fall back to the change of the situation next year's election
Trump's 34 charges are related to the falsification document record of "cover fees" including "cover fees", including the record records of "cover fees", and Trump is all innocent defense.Legal experts believe that according to US law, even if Trump is convicted, he can continue to run. This lawsuit has no conclusion on his personal political future.According to analysis, Trump's lawsuits are entangled. Compared with the "crime of treason" involved in the "Covering Fee" case, the crime of pseudo -tampering documents in the case involved in the Capitol Cases was relatively mild.Even if Trump is energetic, it is not easy to deal with multiple criminal trials while fighting the presidential election campaign.Because of his crimes involving private morality such as extramarital affairs, it may also reduce the support of conservative religious voters.
However, Trump is good at manipulating public opinion and inciting supporters. After he was prosecuted, his support rate did not rise.Reuters/IPSOS online polls show that about 48 % of Republicans support him to run for president, higher than the previous 44 %.Ron Desantis, the governor of Florida, has a support rate of only about 19 %, far lower than 30 % of last month.The latest polls of Yahoo News and Yougov survey shows that Trump's support rate among Republican voters reached 57%, leading 26 percentage points ahead of De Santis.There are only eight percentage points.His campaign team claimed that within one week before and after he was in the court, the donation received was as high as $ 10 million (S $ 13.32 million) and collected 16,000 master workers.
This shows that prosecution has become a blessing for Trump's political energy, and becomes a turning point for the 2024 U.S. presidential election process.At present, the Republican factions have returned quickly, and Trump returned to the party's co -owner status. The pattern of the former Presidential election of Biden, Trump, and Dediseis, which was expected to change.Republican attached to Trump's allegations on prosecution as "political persecution", investigating the son of Biden's son and Afghanistan withdrawn from his duty to investigate the new motivation and legitimacy. Trump may return strongly with the "Avengers" attitude.Emotional politics that cause voters into anger, fear and burnout brings new variables to the next election next year.
It is ridiculous that due to US law, the step -down president has the right to be protected by the Special Service (USSS) for life.Promote the precedent for the steppery president in prison.But compared to the impact of the case on the American government, this first case was insignificant.
Trump refers to all legal lawsuits for him as the "political persecution" of the Democratic Party.In fact, most of these civil and criminal cases were indeed investigated by the Democratic prosecutors in the Democratic constituency.Taking the "cover fee" case as an example, the main prosecutor Alvin Bragg is a Democrat. Most of the witnesses' words come from the anti -Trump people.Donation to the Democratic Party.Melsan tried the Trump Group's tax fraud case the year before. At that time, the prosecutor of the prosecutor was also Prague. He later took the initiative to revoke the prosecution for various reasons.Therefore, the lawsuit was suddenly mentioned, and the political factors of Guitian Li were difficult to rule out.The latest polls of the United States CNN (CNN) show that three -quarters of the interviewees believe that Trump has been prosecuted and has political factors.
Political factors behind the prosecution to damage the three powers and political system
The Speaker of the Republican House of Representatives McCarthy has publicly picked up the prosecutor Prague to "play with" prosecution, hurt the entire country, whether the Bayeng government will speak, and participate in this judicial game, there are still differences in the Democratic Party.It can be seen that Trump's prosecution has caused the US political ecology to split, and the division of responsibilities between administrative, legislation and judicial power has become increasingly blurred, which has gradually lost confidence in U.S. justice.
For a long time, the United States has been proud of its principles of self -correction systems and clear authority constraints.This prosecution will obviously lead to strong doubts about American democracy and the rule of law, and expose the decline of the US political system.On the one hand, the party's fighting is intensifying, and the quality of US politics is declining; on the other hand, the tear between the left and right, race, and elites between the society on the left and right, the race, and the elite, and the internal division of the capital group has also been split.And global capital, the contradiction between the entities represented by Trump and the local capital is increasingly sharp and heated.
People are worried that after the two branches of legislation and administration have become increasingly "weaponized", judicial branches have also been involved in the waves of questioning, which gradually weakens its regulatory role in the dynamic balance of social forces.Regardless of whether the reasons for this prosecution are appropriate, the president has opened the door to convenience before the prosecutor sued the local prosecutor.If the crime of previous presidents becomes a tool for political struggle, retaliation and accountability will worsen the future political contradictions, and the United States will become another Korea; if Trump will win the presidential position when facing allegations or convictions, it marks that the US political systemIncreasingly "landscaping", its legitimacy, credibility and operational effect will definitely suffer more serious damage.
