Source: Wind Media "Wind Review"

When the global financial tsunami occurred 15 years ago, many people began to sing the US dollar and predict the decline of the US dollar hegemony. Of course, they were all wrong; recently, because of several incidents, the US dollar hegemony was once again sang.However, although the US dollar hegemony cannot be "thousands of worlds, until forever", it must be too earlier to sing the US dollar hegemony.

Recently, there are just a few things that have happened in international finance, allowing the outside world to pay attention to whether the US dollar hegemony is slight.These incidents include: Sands will be exported to some of the oil to be exported to China for RMB, Brazil settle in RMB in some trade with China, and France completes the first liquefied natural gas export transaction with RMB settlement.Of course, more importantly, Russia: Sino -Russian trade has increased from less than 1%to 15%from less than 1%, and the Moscow Exchange has soared from near zero to nearly 50%.The so -called "US dollar hegemony" and "global currency multi -polarization" also increased significantly.

However, these words are a little earlier, because the US hegemony is declining in the short term, and the currency hegemony has always been corresponding to the national hegemony and complement each other.

In the early years, Spain was the global trade and sea power hegemon. The silver dollar of Spain was considered a global currency. Then it was the Dutch trading kingdom, so that its currency enjoys hegemony.It is an irreplaceable world currency, and the status of British pounds complements British hegemony.After World War II, the era when the United States and the US dollar hegemony came, and it has not yet faded.

In the era of nearly a century, of course, it has also faced challenges. For example, the "Nixon shocked" that decoupled the US dollar and gold in the 1970s, and the serious "double deficit" after the 1980s (at the same time facing government fiscal deficit and national trade deficitThe increase), the challenges brought by the birth of the euro in 1999, and the impact of the financial tsunami in 2008, but in the end the United States resolved one by one.

Of course, the solution method is those who belong to the "technical aspect", such as the support of the oil element, the square agreement, etc. to appreciate Japan and Germany's currency, but those who really make the US dollar hegemony continue to exist. The "fundamentals" rely onThe advantages and hegemony of the United States in various forces such as economy, technology, and diplomacy, and military. As long as the US hegemony continues, the US dollar hegemony will continue.It is obvious that the US hegemony will continue.

However, trying to break the power of the US dollar hegemony and de -US dollar, it has never been as strong as today.

As early as 60 years ago, French President Dai Goghle had dissatisfied with the accusations of the US dollar "arrogant privilege". It was also Da Gogho desperately "moving gold" from the United States (requesting for exchange), and finally let the United States close the gold exchange window, BuberonthonThe forest system was at the end of the life; the US Treasury Secretary said that "the dollar may be our currency, but it is your problem."

The reason why today I want to break the US dollar hegemony is also from two aspects: financial and politics.Financial aspect is the US Federal Reserve (central bank), which is the central bank of the world. Its monetary policy affects all countries in the world.The interest rate hikes, or the interest rate change in the 1990s, even the financial tsunami in 2008 and the subsequent QE (quantitative loose), QE exit, and this time anti -low -rate interest rate hikes, which have affected other countries.Especially in the development of countries, the country's suffering, and several financial turmoils are also related to this.

In addition to the financial fluctuation, whether it is true or not, whether it is "cut leeks" or "woolen wool", many people criticize the US dollar in the expansion period, allow funds to flow to various countries and promote their economic and asset prices.The contraction period is reverse, returning to the United States with generous profits, leaving a bunch of economic and financial stalls to other countries.For many countries, especially those developed countries, they have an economic motivation to "go to the US dollar" to a fairly extent.

Of course, greater motivation and driving force come from international political factors.U.S. U.S. dollar hegemony forces have sanctioned hostile and even unreasonable countries. In recent years, it can be said that it has become more and more frequent. The US government has increased to thousands of sanctions on foreign countries in one year.After the Russian and Ukraine War last year, financial sanctions against Russia were unprecedented. From a slight ban to western debt issuance to severely expelled SWIFT (Global Bank Financial Telecom Association), and the frozen Russia's US dollar foreign exchange base (even considering even consideringTake these funds to Ukraine), except for the American hardcore brothers alliance, other countries have seen it and they are deeply vigilant.

Among them, China feels the most, because China is already the biggest competitor and imaginary enemy in the United States, it is necessary to do it in case of conflict, which can avoid the preparation of the US dollar hegemony and the preparation of sanctions;Three world countries have no intention of being completely tied into this system. As for those countries that have been suffering from US sanctions and US dollars (Russia, Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, etc.), they must not avoid this system sooner.

This is also the biggest force to promote the US dollar hegemony and promote the world to the "multi -polar currency world".

Just weighing the reality, whether the power of the United States or the US dollar is still strong, even though the proportion of the US dollar accounted for the global foreign exchange base, from the peak of 72%more than 20 years ago to the 55-58%today.See the reason for the dollar.But don't forget that this ratio is still nearly absolute majority, far higher than 19%of the second -ranked euro. As for the RMB that is regarded as the main competitors of the US dollar, it is only 2.88%.

Moreover, the performance of the US dollar hegemony is not only in the proportion of foreign exchange bases, but the US dollar has hegemony in terms of value reserves, asset pricing and payment tools.The hegemony of the tool, and the payment function was originally a project with a small US dollar advantage.

But but it is not denying that the United States abuses the US dollar hegemony position, which has indeed made many countries gradually conscious development replacement systems and avoid being firmly bundled by the United States (and US dollars), thereby weakening the US dollar hegemony.Moreover, "from a long -term view", the US dollar hegemony will eventually decline, but this will not be a few in the first time. It may be more than a dozen years or even longer to see the decline of the US dollar hegemony.Rogif, a professor at Harvard University and former IMF chief economist, said that sanctions against Russia may cause the US dollar to lose its dominant position in 20 years. Although it is far much shorter than the estimated 50 years in the past, it also shows that it is weakened now that the dollar is the US dollar is the US dollar is the US dollar is the US dollar is the US dollar is the US dollar is the US dollar.It's a little earlier.

So, remember, don't press the wrong side, can't go with yourself.