The situation on both sides of the Taiwan Strait and the Pacific Ocean, new changes have occurred when the Russia -Ukrainian war may occur during the Russian and Ukraine war.Taiwan Tsai Ing -wen used the convenience of visiting China, South, South America and in the United States' "transit journey" because the Speaker of the House of Representatives McCarthy met with the US House of Representatives, and reproduced the highest -level political contact in the United States after the interruption of the United States and Taiwan.Mainland China immediately launched military exercises to express dissatisfaction.At the same time, Ma Ying -jeou, a former president of Taiwan and former chairman of the Kuomintang, landed on the "Journey to the ancestor" to hedge the political effects of Mai Caihui."Big Cross -Strait" turns the relationship between the "small cross -strait" and further allows Taiwan's politics to face huge pressure tests.
In order to retaliate the Mai Caihui, Mainland China has launched a three -day war -else police patrol and military exercise around Taiwan on April 8th. Dozens of continuous military aircraft have briefly crossed the Taiwan Strait midline every day.Beijing announced the military exercise a few hours after the end of the French President Macron, showing that it did not want to expand its international effect.Military observers also pointed out that this round of military performances in the scale and intensity, smaller than that of Perosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives in August last year.In addition, Ma Ying -jeou just ended the mainland on April 7, and the mainland must consider the exciting response, and I am afraid that it will offset the goodwill he showed during his landing.
Ma Ying -jeou announced at a press conference when he returned to Taiwan that "the 1992 consensus came again", reflecting that Beijing tried to continue to upgrade in the United States and China. When Washington played Taiwan, he softened to fight for the hearts of Taiwan.The political tacit understanding reached in 1992 depends on the specific political time and space environment at that time.Time has moved through the world. As the situation of US -China relations deteriorates, the young people in Taiwan have become increasingly rising, and the rotation of political parties that have been in direct election since the realization of the presidential election in 1996.The difficulty is bound to become bigger and bigger.
The United States has a comprehensive blocking of China, and the pace is getting more and more compact. In addition to the chip supply and military deployment, the most powerful means are the continuous upgrading of US -Taiwan relations and increase the threshold for peace and unity in the mainland.The game of "Cross -Strait" naturally affects the interaction of "small cross -strait". The political forces cultivated in Taiwan in Taiwan must produce the largest momentum to affect public opinion.The "Shuangyinghui" staged at the same time in Mai Caihui and the "Journey to the ancestor" is a short soldier in Taiwan's "pro -American faction" and the "harmonious" route struggle.In the 2024 Taiwan election, which faction wins is not only to Taiwan, but it is also very important to regional peace and stability.
All these have the most severe test on the political wisdom of Taiwanese voters.Although Beijing will flexibly adjust the policies and attitudes of Taiwan according to the situation, both hard and hard, but the unified Taiwan government is the ultimate goal of consolidating the legitimacy of governance through nationalism through nationalism.In 2022, the Taiwan issue released by Beijing and the new era of China ’s unified career in the new era emphasized that the realization of the entire unity of the motherland is the“ unwavering historical task ”of the mainland government.Maintain the unity of the motherland at all costs. "In the face of this reality, the Taiwanese must eventually make a choice between the dilemma of "peace" and "autonomous", and the decision time is becoming more and more urgent.
The Russian and Ukraine War fully demonstrated the brutal nature of modern and high -intensity military conflicts. For a considerable part of Taiwanese people, the choice of "at all costs" may be the least bad option.Give up the existing autonomous status and lifestyle, and accept the unified conditions of the mainland.For another part of the Taiwanese, maintaining the status quo of self -management is the only option, which means that there must be a psychological preparation and political will to sacrifice peace.The most fundamental thing is that in addition to strengthening their own ability to maintain the status quo at the military and economic level, whether Taiwanese can find the largest conventions between Hezhong and Lifemei, and establish a new internal consensus.
Another major lesson of the Ukrainian war is the tragedy of the brothers on the wall. The pro -Russian forces and the pro -Western forces were unable to obtain consensus, which caused Russia to invade.Of course, "Ukraine Today, Tomorrow Taiwan" is a slogan that is easy to deceive people. After all, cross -strait relations are different from Russia and Ukraine, but the middle is the same as the geopolitical logic of war, but the reason is the same.If the Taiwanese, as always, allow the party's interests to override the collective interests of Taiwan, and keep the fake differences and fake issues of artificial manufacturing, it may be possible to move towards the murderous and danger step by step, and the regional peace and stability.The apes on both sides of the strait couldn't cry, but Taiwan's light boats had not yet passed the mountains.
