Source: Hong Kong Ming Pao
Author: Wang Jiahao
Russia's invasion of Ukraine ushered in the first anniversary, and the Russian army accidentally could not quickly defeat Ukraine, which led to gradually evolving into a tug -of -war, and the possibility of the war in the short term was slim.At the same time, Moscow's judgment of his strength and world situation was wrong, and eventually three serious strategic mistakes on the Russian and Ukraine War.After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, Russia, which is rapidly weakened by national strength, still sought self -proclaimed self -consumption, relying on the number of nuclear bombs and rich energy reserves that are not the same as the United States;It may be unexpected by the Kremlin.
Nuclear weapons with "too great"
Although Russian military expenditure has decreased significantly during the Soviet Union, it is currently only about one -tenth of the United States and one -quarter of China, but the number of nuclear bombs is still slightly more than the United States (Russia is 6257, the United States has it in the United States, and the United States has it.5,550), especially in the aspect of short medium -range missiles, and threatened to successfully develop ultra -high -speed speed nuclear weapons, it is expected to break the strategic balance that has maintained with Washington.Russia, which is self -sufficient in nuclear nations, has hinted that nuclear weapons may be used in the Crimean crisis, which indirectly avoids military intervention in Western countries in Russia and Ukraine.During the Russian and Ukraine War, Putin also tried to re -applied his techniques and repeatedly emphasized that Russia "prepares all resources to defend itself" to intimidate the West to stop providing military assistance to Ukrai.However, even if European and American countries ignore their warnings and resolutely provide assistance to Kiev, the Russian side refuses to use nuclear weapons as countermeasures. In the end, the nuclear intimidation has not worked, and it becomes a "paper tiger".The development of these situations also brings important inspiration to international relations, and establishes the "too powerful to be used", especially its main purpose is more self -defense than attack.
This winter is not too cold
As a large energy country, Russia has rich natural resources, and European countries have rely on Russia's energy supply for many years, especially the adjacent Central and Eastern European countries.Before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the EU's oil and natural gas imported from Russia accounted for 29%and 43%, respectively.The United States has repeatedly reminded the European Union on its dependence on Russia's energy, so it has strongly opposed Germany and Russia to build the Beixi Pipeline (Nord Stream).Washington is worried that Moscow will use energy as a weapon to put pressure on European countries to exchange for political compromises with economic interests.However, under the war of Russia, Russia has always been unable to convert energy dependence into actual influence. As a result, the European Union has relatively successfully avoided the energy crisis.After the outbreak of the war, Moscow asked Europe to pay rubles to Russian natural gas companies, otherwise it would face severe winter.Faced with the threat of Russia, the European Union's response plan was transferred to the United States and Norway to import liquefied natural gas, and increased natural gas storage to more than 80 %.At the same time, European countries encouraging energy -saving initiatives to be popular and corporate, and climate and heating will help them reduce their demand for energy.In terms of energy supply and demand, the European Union can be said to temporarily solve the urgent need, even if it still has to face the high costs involved in the transfer of import sources.
"Collective West" is no longer a slogan?
The same surprise Russia believes that it is the unity of the Western camp and a firm support for Wu.For the differences between the Cross -Atlantic Alliance and the friction between the "Old Europe" (Western Europe) and the "New Europe" (Central Eastern Europe), Russia has always adopted the PIDE and Rule strategy.Independent relationships, avoid binding them together.Russia attaches great importance to the relationship with traditional European countries such as Germany, France, and Italy. It has established close political and economic relations for many years. It is hoped that they can become lobbyists in the Western camp to prevent anti -Russian policies.
Russia's attitudes towards Europe and the United States can explain through its fiscal policy.Prior to the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia hoarded more than $ 600 billion (S $ 805.9 billion) foreign exchange reserves to reduce its influence of Western sanctions.Even with the pursuit of "going to the US dollar", the Russian central bank still has a large amount of euro assets (32.3%), followed by gold (21.7%) and the US dollar (16.4%).Similarly, the Russian Central Bank in addition to depositing foreign exchange assets in its own (21.7%), but also placed them in France (12.2%) and Germany (9.5%).The EU eventually followed the United States to impose severe financial sanctions on Russia, which led to half of the latter's reserves frozen or charged, exactly showing that Moscow had unrealistic expectations for Europe.
Looking back at Russia and Ukraine's conflict, Russia has always been proud of the results of nuclear weapons and energy weapons than expected. How much practical significance does Moscow's pursuit of the great power?At the same time, Russia has deepened various dependence on China after the war. In fact, Moscow is more like a junior partner in the Sino -Russian alliance?
