Du Zhiyuan

In the early 1990s, the 15 Soviets joined the Republic to go out of the Soviet Union independently.But from the perspective of the United States, Russia, which inherited the Soviet bowl, still challenges the United States, especially in terms of ideology.In addition, with the rise of China, which is governed by the Chinese government, the United States has gradually realized the possibility of China and Russia to build a "Communist Alliance".In view of the strong comprehensive strength of China and the dependence of Sino -US economic and trade relations, the United States has chosen to step up to solve the disintegration of Russia.

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The Russian -Ukraine War, which broke out in early 2022, provided strategic opportunities for the United States to take major national actions for Russia.The United States and Western allies collectively encircled Russia, forcing it to move towards the second disintegration.The second disintegration is mainly the disintegration of virtual body, and it is more from the aspects of soft power such as influence and economic ability to strengthen sanctions and curbs against Russia.

1. The reason why Russia moves to the second disintegration

The tension between the United States and Russia's strategic differences and relations, the communist phobia of the former Soviet franchisee, and the problems of Russia's own existence, are all the prednses that cause Russia to move towards the second disintegration.

From the perspective of the United States, the United States and Russia have great heterogeneity in terms of economic models, political systems and value concepts. Russia is a strategic opponent in the United States rather than strategic partners.The outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War and the deep cracks caused by Russia and Europe provided unprecedented opportunities for the United States to unite and lead European allies.The United States has used this to reshape across Atlantic relations and completely solve the problem of Russia's historical problems that Russia's strategic threats to the United States.

From the perspective of Lithuania, Estonia, Czech Republic and other countries, the Soviet Union once deprived of their national sovereignty and independence, thereby being suspicious of the government or state led by the Communist Party.The intervention of the game of the United States and Russia and the US forces, the Central and Eastern European countries led by the middle or right -wing alliance, seem to see that they have a political chip that deal with authoritarian regime.In addition, Central Asian countries such as Kazakhstan also noticed the game of great powers, which was a favorable opportunity for promoting a balanced strategy and getting rid of the scope of Russia.

The Soviet Union and Russia have high similarity and inheritance in terms of economy and politics.During the Soviet Union, the rigid economic model and a highly concentrated system made Moscow difficult to flexibly lead many franchisees, and the competition for power was even more centrifugal.Today, Russia is also difficult to get rid of the problems left by the Soviet Union, and it is unsatisfactory in terms of economic development, political reform and scientific and technological progress.The performance of Russia in the Russian and Ukraine War has also continuously showed the old base during the overdrawn of the Soviet Union.

II. Evaluation of the Second Drink of Russia

Russia's second disintegration will be carried out in a virtual way rather than a physical way. It is difficult to find it in the process and it is difficult to evaluate. However, it can be exaggerated that the effect of disintegration will not be less than the last disintegration.It is mainly reflected in several aspects.

First, Russia's international status and the right to speak greatly decline

Although Russia, as a member of the major international organizations such as the United Nations, has a certain right to speak, and it is difficult to ignore the status of nuclear countries.Limited, once the edge of the second disintegration, the international influence will be greatly declining and reduced to a second -rate country.The most unstable factors in cross -Atlantic relations will promote the deep integration and development of US -Europe relations.

Second, China will be deeply impacted by Russia's second disintegration

U.S. coalition alliances are tightly siege in Russia. On the one hand, they are indeed different from each other. It is a cost -income ratio evaluation and choice made by Western countries based on the disparity of political systems and value concepts.On the other hand, it is also Xiangzhuang dance sword, which is intended to be Pei Gong and pursue core strategic purpose.The second disintegration of Russia means that the United States and the West will focus on China, and the containment and target of China will become the main action of the follow -up.

Third, the Russian and Ukraine War is destined to be a profound change of international pattern

Russia's behavior is difficult to explain its international legitimacy and international morality, leading to limited action and goals.On the other hand, the United States successfully established the role of Western collective leadership. The Central and Eastern European countries took the opportunity to get rid of the identity of the former Franchisee of the Soviet Union. Central Asian countries took the opportunity to break away from Russia's Yuwei control.If the first disintegration is "suffering from their minds, to do his bones and bones", the second disintegration is "hungry its body skin and lack of body."For Russia, in just 30 years, it is unbearable to suffer two huge impacts.

Fourth, in order to prevent Russia from escape the second disintegration, the United States will strengthen the intimidation of China

As Russia is likely to move towards the second disintegration, the United States also deeply realizes the possibility of China -Russia holding a group.In this way, the strategic plan of the United States "first Russia and the middle" will be frustrated or even abortion.Therefore, while gathered allies to be siege Russia, the United States constantly emphasized and even threatened China not to help Russia, and even strengthened investigation and legislative work on the fields of cooperation between China and Russia to supervise China.

In short, the camp problems, ideological problems, development of survival problems, etc. are all imminent.Once Russia's second disintegration, China's strategic buffer space has been compressed again, and competitive relationships have been replaced by zero -sum game.For China, the test of the Russian and Ukraine War was unprecedented, and history came to the watershed again.

The author is a scholar at the School of Political and International Relations of East China Normal University

U.S. coalition allies are tightly siege in Russia, on the one hand, it is indeed different.On the other hand, it is also Xiangzhuang dance sword, which is intended to be Pei Gong and pursue core strategic purpose.The second disintegration of Russia means that the United States and the West will focus on China, and the containment and target of China will become the main action of the follow -up.