Gu Erd

The Russian and Ukraine war that broke out a year ago impacted the global political and economic situation. Taiwan is undoubtedly the most affected area outside the two parties."Today's Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan" is a metaphor for Taiwan and the international.The Russian and Ukraine War also specifically affected Taiwan's awareness of internal and foreign policies, international relations, and the public.

Similar comparison with "today's Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan" has also been used in Hong Kong and Taiwan.A series of turmoil since the occupation of Hong Kong has caused Taiwanese to care and provide private assistance.Although Taiwan -Hong Kong folk exchanges are far close than that of Taiwan, the changes in the situation in Hong Kong have smaller impact on Taiwan, because since the signing of the Sino -British joint statement in the 1980s, Hong Kong's "return" has become an irreversible process.The basic law framework set on Hong Kong people is also not available in Taiwan, so few Taiwanese people think that "one country, two systems" is the only solution to cross -strait relations, and it will not think that the situation of Hong Kong people in the 1997 will be copied to Taiwan.The biggest impact of the Hong Kong Change Bureau on Taiwan is: the people have completely denied the success of the "one country, two systems" from doubt to the "one country, two systems", and indirectly helped Cai Yingwen's successful success.

The timing of the martial arts is a real threat

Russia's impact on Ukraine's impact on Taiwan is different -even if Ukraine is a member of the United Nations and a country that is recognized by sovereignty independence in Russia, Russia still sends troops to invade, not to mention Taiwan, which claims to have sovereignty it to it in mainland China.This also made the Taiwanese realize that Beijing's claimed "does not promise to abandon the use of force and retain all necessary measures" is not just slogans; the legendary martial arts timetable in 2026, 2032, etc., is a real threat.

On the other hand, the excuse of Russia's invasion of Ukraine was that the Ukraine government did not realize its autonomy to the Wudong region and compiled the right -right militia against pro -Russian forces.The Ukrainian government with a vast new Naziism in Russia, just like China has become a big hat for the abuse of Taiwan independence stubborn stubborn molecules, and many DPP government officials have been included in the sanctions list.Russia and China are unlimitedly hunting witch hunting.On the other hand, the threat of security has become a reason for the invasion of Russia, and it has also worried some of Taiwan's "suspicious American friends". When Taiwan -US military security cooperation is getting closer, it will cause restlessness in mainland China and invade Taiwan.

The people of Taiwan realize that two reactions occur after the possibility of the mainland's martial arts committed Taiwan.Cao Xingcheng, an entrepreneur who once immigrated to Singapore and Taiwan, became a pioneer in anti -China. He invested 600 million Taiwan dollars (about 26.3 million yuan) to sponsor the establishment of Black Bear College to host various camp teams to cultivate citizens' independent defense capabilities; the DPP politicsNew Star Wu Yinong also advocates the "Land Defense Force" to organize military organizations similar to the US militia.The DPP government is available by the people's gas (at the same time) by extending military service under the pressure of the United States.

But the probability of increasing the war in war is most likely to be called on the battlefield, and the mentality of avoiding the war has also increased.According to the polls announced in December last year, although 733 people agreed to the service period at least one year, 37.2%of young people aged 20 to 24 are not in favor of the extension of the service period, slightly higher than the 35.6%of the approval, and the recognition ratioIt was as high as 55%in March last year.

The Russian and Ukraine War further pushed Taiwan to the US camp.As the United States attracts allies to organize the anti -China camp, it is also stronger to require mainland China to maintain peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait.At the end of July last year, after the Speaker of the House of Representatives Perosi visited Taiwan at the end of July last year, the PLA held a large -scale military exercise.Change the status quo of the area. "In December last year, French President Macron visited the United States and issued a joint statement with US President Biden Biden, and also mentioned "the importance of maintaining the peace and stability of the Taiwan Strait."This is the first time that the French president has always made a statement on the Taiwan Strait.

The annual defense white paper in Japan last year was released, and it was significantly increased to Taiwan.The white paper pointed out that for Japan, "Taiwan is a very important partner of the basic value of sharing freedom and democracy. The stable situation around Taiwan is also very important to Singapore's security.Many topics faced in security guarantee. "

At the end of December, the new version of the national security protection strategy of the highest level in Japan's defense policy was released.On the one hand, China has adhered to the principles of peace in Taiwan, but it has not ruled out the possibility of martial arts. Moreover, it includes the active military activities of China in Taiwan's sea airspace around the sea of Taiwan.In the Indo -Pacific region, the worry of the entire international community has risen rapidly. "

Japan's Prime Minister Kishita Tian Wenxiong and Chinese President Xi Jinping met in Bangkok last November, and also expressed their concern for peace in the Taiwan Strait.In January of this year, Kishida visited the United States and Biden issued a joint statement, and once again reiterated the importance of peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.In an interview with the regional security expert of the Hudson Institute, the Hudson Institute's regional security expert said: "Japan and the United States have more frequently conducted simulation and joint exercises for the 'Taiwan something'. In addition, I believe that Japan and the United States will send more frequently to Taiwan in the future.The interview group of politicians has raised Taiwan's "substantial international status' to the same level as other sovereign countries." After the PLA exercise in August last year, the frequency and intensity of the United States and Japan increased the joint military exercise, including at the end of August last year.The "Shield of Oriental" began in Kyushu. The situation setting is the islands and Taiwan in mainland China.

The most important thing is that the Taiwan -US relations heated up due to the Russian and Ukraine War.The United States is more concerned about the ability of Taiwan ’s anti -military threat. The Taiwan Policy Act passed by the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Senate provides US $ 6.5 billion (about S $ 8.7 billion) for free military financing in five years.The Senate passed the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA 2023) in December last year.12.68 billion yuan) 12 -year military sales loans.This is the first for the first time in Taimei to help Taiwan since intercourse in 1979.However, only loans are issued in the annual budget of 2023.

After the 2018 Taiwan Travel Law was passed, Taiwan -American officials' mutual visits restrictions were greatly loosened. After the Russian and Ukraine War, the US -Taiwan military exchanges were more frequent and more open.The Taiwan Travel Law suggested that the administrative department "should promote all levels of interoperability between the United States and Taiwan", but in reality, Washington will still not allow Taiwan to visit the United States.Taiwan Foreign Minister Wu Zhaozheng also said in the Legislative Yuan that in accordance with the tacit understanding of the United States and Taiwan, Taiwan ’s National Defense Minister and Foreign Minister cannot visit Washington.However, this "tacit understanding" was recently lifted. Wu Zhaozheng and Gu Lixiong, the Secretary -General of the National Security Council, held talks with the United States in Washington on February 21.This is a breakthrough, and Beijing may be furious again.

Although the Russian and Ukraine War has improved the world's peaceful concern, the increase in the risk of war has also caused the European, American and Japan to worry about the semiconductor industry overly relying on Taiwan.In addition to trying to develop the local semiconductor industry, various countries also actively invite (or requests) TSMC, which accounts for more than 50 % of the global wafer foundry to set up factories.This also makes many people worry that the semiconductor -related industries that are regarded as Taiwan's "protecting the country" will be moved away.

The second year of the Russian and Ukraine War, US Secretary of State Broskel warned that China has been considering providing fatal weapons to Russia.In the future, how to further affect the three -sided relationship between the United States and China, and then change the strategic layout of the United States in Indo -Pacific, will inevitably affect Taiwan.

The author is a senior media person in Taiwan, the chief of the new news of the Internet media