Source: Ming Pao
Ming Pao Society Review
The new fiscal budget of Hong Kong is released, and the scale of one -time sugar -free relief measures has been reduced.Supercomputing centers and microelectronics research and development institutes are worth looking forward to.This time is the first fiscal budget during the post -resistance period. The official proposed to use financial instruments such as bond issuance and "better management of cash flow" is an important change in financial management ideas.If the official can maintain a strong financial reserve, debt issuance can make government funds turn more abundant and help plan more long -term development plans.In this budget, it assisted the government to cope with short -term fiscal pressure, and the long -term reform was insufficient. The taxation structure review and reform were time to put on the agenda.
Loose in the middle of the financial policy
Reproduction of rescue measures
Hong Kong has gone out of the "epidemic" situation, and the economy needs to solidify Pei Yuan, and people's livelihood needs to recuperate. Of course, the most concern for all walks of life is of course, what is to rescue and boost the city's road measures.Officials have repeatedly stated that the government has accumulated huge wealth and red in the past three years, and its fiscal reserves have declined. Fiscal policy will be shifted from "quite loose" to "middle loose", which is inevitable.Looking at the content of a new budget, the so -called "middle loose" is to reduce the scale of sugar, but still maintain the deficit budget and maintain a certain amount of rescue, so as not to seriously affect people's livelihood and economic recovery.
In the past two years, the government has issued 5,000 yuan and 10,000 yuan electronic consumer coupons to the entire people. The public has expectations for money, but there are also opinions that they should consider the burden of public finances and should not be distributed.Now the budget determines the "three company", and the amount is reduced to 5,000 yuan, which is considered to be ink to a certain extent.Chen Maobo, director of the Financial Department, said that more than 80 % of the resources involved in the budget measures are used in citizens and small and medium -sized enterprises, but the public feels that it is often another matter.For many citizens, the upper limit of salary tax width is reduced to 6,000 yuan, and the width of ragers will be reduced for two seasons.Extending transportation fee subsidies, etc., is just a lot of money.Whether the people's livelihood can be improved as soon as possible depends on the actual situation of the economic recovery.
In terms of planning in the future, a new budget proposes to actively connect with the national development strategy, promote exchanges between the Greater Bay Area, and step up Hong Kong to become a green technology and financial center. However, there are not many specific details.Regarding the development of Chuangke, the highlights are relatively prominent. In addition to continuing the life and health technology development plan mentioned in the budget last year, the government will also reserve 3 billion yuan to promote basic research in cutting -edge technology fields such as artificial intelligence and quantum technology, includingEstablish an artificial intelligence supercomputing center and microelectronics research and development institute.Hong Kong's scientific research institutions have high levels of high strength. If the relevant plans can be implemented well, it will help Hong Kong to become the center of international innovation and promote the diversification of economic and industry.
The Hong Kong economy was hit by multiple factors such as the epidemic situation, the mainland closure, the interest rate hikes in Europe and the United States, and the slowdown of peripherals. It is expected that GDP will shrink by more than 3%throughout the year, and the revenue of the warehouse is not expected.Yuan, fiscal reserves fell to about 820 billion yuan.With the comprehensive re -opening of the Mainland in Hong Kong, the economic rebound is expected this year. The budget is estimated to have a strong substantial growth in the whole year, which is 3.5%to 5.5%.It will be further reduced to more than 760 billion yuan.One of the perceptions of the new budget is to officially try to "flutter water" to improve the short -term fiscal situation and levy an additional 2.4 billion yuan gaming tax to the Jockey Club each year, which is one of the measures.In addition, the government also mentioned debt issuance.The budget proposes that from the beginning of the new fiscal year, the government will issue a total of 65 billion yuan of green bonds and infrastructure bonds every year in the next 5 years.
Turnover of bond issuance to infrastructure projects
Tax structure reform should not be dragged
"Entry is out" is an important principle of public finance in Hong Kong, and is written into the Basic Law. However, it is not appropriate to understand "quantitative income" and make self -binding.The government's moderate issuance of debt financing can facilitate turnover, or invest in the future, and start some large -scale development projects that have brought high returns in the long run.Singapore and Hong Kong are also highly open small economies, which are easily affected by peripherals. However, the development of the official debt issuance of Xingzhou has always been quite aggressive. The most important thing is that it has sufficient financial reserves.The level of debt of the SAR government has always been very low, and the non -repayment debt repayment is only equivalent to 4%of GDP, far lower than most advanced economies. Moderate debt issuance to support large infrastructure projects to be launched as soon as possible. There is no problem.When becoming rich, you have money to spend, and do not ask about cost benefits.
The budget is optimistic about economic growth this year, which is not surprising, but whether Hong Kong can be as official in the next 4 years, it has increased by 3.7%each year. In fact, there are many variables.On the one hand, it is difficult for the development of emerging industries such as Chuangke to become an important economic engine for several years. On the other hand, the global economic prospects are unknown, geopolitical, and weird, and Hong Kong will set off again to ensure smooth sailing.The mid -term financial forecast made by the budget mentioned that if economic growth meets the expectations, the revenue of the warehouse has rebounded. Except for 2023/24 years, I believe that the government can record surplus in 4 years.Prerequisites; if you do not issue debts, you will not rule out the situation of wealth and red for 3 or 4 years.Chen Maobo mentioned that in the past few years, he had a lot of anti -epidemic expenses, and government expenditure accounted for about 25%of GDP this year.In contrast, the proportion of the relevant proportion a few years ago was only about 20 %.It is necessary for the government to compress the expenses as much as possible without damage to people's livelihood, and the heavily overdue projects and other chaos should be managed to control.
The aging population in Hong Kong, the expenses of medical social welfare have continued in the long run, and the government's financial burden will become heavier.The reform of the public finance and taxation structure is time to put on the agenda. However, the budget only brought it lightly. It only stated that it was necessary to clearly consider the policy goals of the new tax, and let the society fully discuss.The reform of the tax structure affects all parties. Of course, it needs to be discussed from a long time. Because of this, related discussions should be expanded as soon as possible.
