Wang Xinxian

The

The Russian and Ukraine War was the annual anniversary. This war was not only as expected by Russian President Putin's expected quick decision. Over time, it also became the field of international power games such as the United States, Russia, China, and Europe.Taiwan, which is more than 8,000 kilometers away, is constantly mentioned in the process. Many international dignitaries and observers warn that after the invasion of Ukraine in Russia, it is Mainland China Wu Tong Taiwan.This is the "Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan", which has been mentioned in the past year.

In the past 70 years, the reason why Taiwan can resist military pressure from Beijing is mainly the security support of the United States.However, the United States only provides weapons and supplies against Ukraine, which has also allowed Taiwanese to think about the role of the United States on the security issues of the Taiwan Strait.The magazine of economists once called Taiwan as the "most dangerous area on the earth". Of course, this statement involves the interaction of the three parties of the United States and Lutai. The following will also observe the development of cross -strait relations accordingly.

From the perspective of mainland China, compared to the visit of Perlis, the speaker of the US House of Representatives last year, the PLA launched the largest military exercise surrounded by Taiwan, and Xi Jinping, the General Secretary of the Mainland Government, emphasized in the 20th National Congress.After not promising to abandon the use of force ", although the diplomatic oppression and military deterrence against Taiwan will not relax this year, it will be based on exchanges and united fronts.

The reason is: First, cross -strait exchanges during the crown disease epidemic are stagnant, and the mildness of the epidemic is indeed conducive to the promotion of exchanges, and it is also necessary to catch up with the progress of the economic and social integration policy of Taiwan.Secondly, after the 20th National Congress was successfully held, Xi Jinping's power was more stable, and the internal resistance to the Huairou line of Taiwan's policy would be smaller.

Furthermore, internal economic and social problems in mainland China are serious, especially the people's complaints brought by the epidemic prevention policy, and must be stabilized with foreign relations to Anni; of course, it is also one of them to Taiwan.Finally, compared to the 2019 Hong Kong Return Repairing incident, the official tough position of the demonstrators affects the Taiwan election in 2020. How to not "excellent branches" in 2023 to avoid affecting the Taiwan election in 2024Among them.

Therefore, this is why mainland China ’s main members of Taiwan work, including the upcoming chairman of the CPPCC, and Song Tao, the director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the Second Period of Taiwan.The reason for the normalization of communication.

From the perspective of Taiwan, it is precisely because of the continuous Russia and Ukraine war and the aforementioned military exercise that allows Taiwanese people to think more about "peace".According to the Taiwan Strait Safety Police Survey made by the Taiwan 21st Century Foundation, as many as 82%of Taiwan people believe that mainland China is "increasingly not friendly" in Taiwan, and the probability of war on both sides of the strait has gradually increased;Or that there are more than 60%of the people who advocate neutrality, and there are more than 60%of the people believe that Beijing will not give up the unity of force, and nearly 65%of the people think that the Taiwan military defense preparation is insufficient.

More importantly, because the United States supports Ukraine against Russia, about 40%of Taiwanese people believe that once Beijing's military committed Taiwan, the United States will only "provide weapons and materials" against Taiwan, and only 10%of the people will have 10%of the people.It is believed that the United States will send troops to Taiwan to fight in Taiwan, setting a new low of polls.This is why "suspicious beauty theory" has recently fermented in Taiwan.

There is also this trend in the long -term polls made by the Taiwan Public Opinion Foundation.When asked about Taiwan in October 2021, 65%of the Taiwanese people believed that the United States would send troops to prevent Taiwan, but this data fell to 34.5%immediately after the outbreak of the Russia and Ukraine War.But still "do not believe" higher than "believe".This is why the dual -D strategy emphasized by the Kuomintang -DEFENSE and Dialogue (dialogue), as well as "better communication than breaking, good conversation than confrontation" advocated by the people's party, and attract people's attention.And the DPP government, currently governed, has also changed from the past "anti -China -China" to "Peace -Baozai". Each camp wants to show the public before the 2024 presidential election.ability.

Mainland China reforms "soft means"

Finally, from the perspective of the United States, although the United States and China have recently appeared a little tactical compromise, the strategic competition of the two strongs must be structural and long -term.After the epidemic, the anti -Chinese mood of the United States was rising. In 2024, the US presidential election is imminent. Neither the Democratic Party or the Republican Party will not show weakness on the issue of China.Taiwan happens to be the most important part of the two top geopolitical confrontation between the United States and China, which will inevitably be involved in it.Coupled with the continuous mention of the "anti -external forces interference" of the 20th National Congress of the mainland government, it has also proved that the current cross -strait relations are no longer the small cross -strait on the mainland and the mainland, but inlaid between the cross -strait cross -strait on the cross -Pacific and China.And in the anniversary of the Russian and Ukraine War, in the strategic interaction of the three parties in the United States, China, and Russia, Taiwan, as the core of the US -China strategic competition, will also be an important issue.

In this regard, there are three issues that may cause tensions on both sides of the strait this year: First, the new American House Speaker McCarthy may visit Taiwan. Whether Beijing's response will be more intense than last year Perosi visit Taiwan; second, Taiwan proposed by the US CongressThe legislative progress of policy bills, whether the final provision involves the sovereign sensitive issues advocated by Beijing, and then touched Beijing's "legal struggle" against Taiwan; the third is whether the United States will visit Taiwan Cai Yingwen's visit to Central and South America, and give it "High specifications "treatment, even whether the US Congress will invite Tsai Ing -wen to visit the United States.These issues are extremely impactful for Beijing, and also prove that Taiwan's issue is the top priority of US -China relations.

Since this year, mainland China has adopted the "soft means" of exchanges and united fronts in the past few years.Although the people in Taiwan are looking forward to communicating to slow down the conflict between the two sides, they are worried that this is a sugar -coated poison.Large variables are the US -China relations. Under the confrontation between the two strongs, Beijing officials will become more and more obvious to Taiwan's sovereignty, and the United States will not let go of it.In fact, there are not many choices for Taiwan to Taiwan. Of course, war is unwilling to hope that the people in Taiwan are unwilling, but peace is also the "war" under the threat of force, which is the so -called "Beiping model".Tun can also see the helplessness of the Taiwanese.In this regard, the Taiwan election in 2024 is not only a topic of reunification, war and peace, but also with "suspicious beauty" or "leaning beauty", which will also be the key to affecting people's voting.

The author is the East Asia Research Institute of Taiwan Politburo

A special -appointed professor and deputy director of the International Relations Research Center

There are three issues that may cause tensions on both sides of the strait this year: First, McCarthy may be visited to Taiwan by the Speaker of the House of Representatives in the United States, whether Beijing's response is more intense;"Struggle"; third, whether the US Congress will invite Taiwan Cai Yingwen to visit the United States.