Source: Hong Kong 01
Author: Lu Yi
"War" and "sanctions" on the same way, February 24 is the first anniversary of the Ukrainian war.Over the past year, Western sanctions against Russia have been full of tricks, not only reflected in traditional fields such as energy and finance, but also include civil fields such as life and art.It can be said that as long as it belongs to Russia, it can't escape.On the first anniversary of the Ukrainian war in Russia, US President Joe Biden's visit to Kiev, and immediately announced that it was later announced that a new sanction plan for Russia was introduced later.
"Sanctions" and "sanctions", endless "sanctions", which also makes the international community generally hold pessimistic attitudes towards the Russian economy. Europe has predicted that the Russian economy will be on the verge of collapse.At least 20%.However, after a year of sanctions, and continuous additional sanctions, what is the real situation?
Russian President Putin stated at an economic issue conference held with government members in January that it turns out that the Russian economic performance in 2022 is better than many experts.Putin also said in the newly -issued national information article that the West attempts to create the Russian people through sanctions, but this plan has ended, "it turns out that Russia's economic and management system is much more stable than Western imagination."
According to the preliminary data of the Russian Ministry of Economic Development, Russia fell 2.5%in 2022.Russia's economic toughness was appeared. After a sharp decline in the second quarter of 2022, it began to resume growth in the third and fourth quarters.
Putin said, "They attempts to cut off the business exchanges with Russian companies, kick the Russian financial system out of communication channels, the purpose is to overcome the Russian economy, block Russian exports, and fight against Russia's revenue ... stealing our foreign exchange reservesIn an attempt to cause the ruble to explode and cause destructive inflation. "But these methods did not work."Compared with December 2021, the proportion of Russia's rubles in our international settlement has doubled, reaching one -third," Putin said. "I believe that we have the opportunity to achieve similar breakthroughs in other fields."
Some people think that Putin personally stated that Russia's GDP in 2022 fell 2.5%, and there was a possibility of data fraud. On January 31, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that GDP would fall by 2.2%, and the World Bank expected to decrease by 3%.Anyway, it is probably a 2-3%level.To be honest, this number is quite good. The IMF and the World Bank in the early days of the war of the Ukrainian war in Russia were expected to fall by-10%.
It is also necessary to see that for the GDP of 2023, the IMF has greatly raised its expectations for the Russian economic growth rate in 2023 and 2024. It is believed that the country's economy will increase by 0.3%this year and will increase by 2.1%next year.The forecast raised Russia's economic growth in 2023 and 2024 to increase by 2.6 percentage points and 0.6 percentage points, respectively.
Of course, it should also be seen that the Russian actual GDP growth rate has fallen sharply since March 2022, and it has fallen into the negative interval in April. It has been located in the negative interval for 10 consecutive months.
In terms of subdivision, from the perspective of production, since the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia's industrial production has fallen rapidly from the previous high. The actual industrial production starts from April 2022, as of 2022In December, it has been negative for 9 consecutive months.From the perspective of the industry, differentiation is more obvious.As of December 2022, the production declines in the production of coal, basic pharmaceuticals, metal ore, wood and cork products, motor vehicles, etc., with an average decline of nearly 40 %; chemicals, oil and natural gas, and petroleum coke in the production decline in production declines exceeding 10 %Essence
The average increase in production in industries such as clothing, leather and related products is close to 40 %, and the production of tobacco, beverages, food, food, machinery and electrical equipment has also performed well, with an average increase of about 10 %.This is largely related to the economic and trade sanctions on Russia by major economies.
From the perspective of consumption, as of November 2022, after eliminating the base, Russia's consumption growth rate reached more than 8 %, which was higher than the level before the epidemic (March 2020).In particular, service consumption is much higher than the average level, such as medical services, medical care, and personal service growth rates of more than 10 %; while the growth rate of consumption such as tourism, culture, transportation, and communications is relatively low, but it is alsoPositive growth.
From the perspective of import and export, in fact, it is conducive to sanction in Russia's oil and gas income, which is still increasing, making Russian trade still profitable.The main impact is reflected in import.The impact on Russian imported materials is mainly reflected in machinery, electrical equipment, vehicles, etc., including computers, accounting for 40%of Russia's total imports.However, the gap in these materials may be alleviated due to the complement of China's import.
For example, in terms of heavy trucks, due to the seven large -name heavy trucks in the West, all of them withdrew from the Russian market, Russian Customs statistics imported 31,000 Chinese heavy trucks in 2022, three times higher than 2021.At present, 44%of the Russian heavy truck market is domestic cars such as Kamaz, and 46%are China heavy cards.Of course, due to Western sanctions, the Russian card market has shrunk, and sales have fallen by 25%, but it is not completely paralyzed.
In terms of engineering machinery, China replaced the share in 2022.Earlier, Europe accounted for 80%of the Russian market.However, in the first quarter of 2022, the medium -sized excavators provided to Russia accounted for 70%of the market, and the small excavator market accounted for 33%.According to Chinese customs statistics, in 2021, construction machinery exports Russia reached 2.133 billion US dollars (S $ 2.8 billion), an increase of 83.1%, accounting for 6.27%of the annual exports, a record high.Only in 2022 in 2022, China Construction Machinery had exported approximately US $ 2.832 billion in Russia, an increase of 56.6%year -on -year, accounting for 7.75%of the industry's total exports.China is obviously becoming the main supplier of the Russian road construction machinery market.
Putin also stated in the National Information Consultation article that it is necessary to establish an effective internal economic Unicom and logistics corridor in Russia to expand the outlook for external economic connections.He expects Russia to grow in 2023. Domestic companies will seize opportunities to fill the vacancies that will occur after the withdrawal of Western companies in the market.
From a few figures, the Russian economic performance was not bad in 2022. With the help of increasing interest rates, controlling oil and natural gas sales prices, and the help of economic and trade exchanges with non -Western countries such as China, war consumption andThe impact of Western sanctions is relatively small.
But the Russian industry, even the military sector, rely on imported high -tech products from the West.According to statistics, in 2022, Russia's technology products imported from all countries have declined. The decline of these imports will not only reduce the production of products, but also make some industries return to a more primitive production state.Since the conflict of Russia and Ukraine, due to the active evacuation of Western companies, it has completely interrupted the trade trade with European energy commodities, and the lack of alternatives, these will continue to hinder the development of the Russian economy.
Look at Russia's fiscal deficit of 3.3 trillion rubles (S $ 58 billion) in 2022, and even without 4.1 trillion rubles in 2020.Compared with GDP, the deficit rate is 2.3%.This is a very low value.In contrast, China's budget fiscal deficit rate in 2022 was 2.8%.Although the United States' 2022 fell half compared to 2021, the United States still had 1.38 trillion US dollars, and the deficit rate exceeded 5%.Even before the new crown epidemic, the US deficit rate in 2019 was 4.7%.
Looking at the inflation rate again, although the inflation rate in 2022 is 11.9%, it is also lower than the Russian central bank's expectations.Compared with the three Baltic countries, about 20%of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia are also about 15%, and even Poland's inflation rate from July-September 2022 also exceeded 16%. RussiaRose has been controlled.It is currently expected that the inflation rate in the second half of 2023 can drop below 10%.
In addition, it is worth noting that Russia also has a National Fortune Fund, which has 13.6 trillion rubles (about 194 billion US dollars) before the war, and fell to 10.8 trillion rubles in July 2022.By December 1, the fund's account deposit was 41.892 billion euros, pounds of pounds of pounds, 478.478 billion yen, 309.72 billion yuan, 242.7 billion rubles, and 55.4911 tons of gold. Roughly estimated that it was approximately not less than 134 billion US dollars.In 937 trillion rubles.At this speed, it can support two years.The Russian Ministry of Finance recently announced that the Fortune Fund structure will be mainly RMB (60%) and gold in the future. The US dollar has been eliminated before, and the pound and yen are now emptied.
On the first anniversary of the Russian and Ukraine War, it may be said that Russia overcomes the impact of economic sanctions, but far from saying that the Russian economy ushered in a new turning point.Even if the Russian economy has no war, it has its deep -rooted structural problems, which has a constraint on economic development.Although the crazy economic sanctions in the West are weaker than expected, it also needs to realize that the impact is more durable.Putin must pay for the economic answer, otherwise the war of lasting war will inevitably down the country.
