Source: United News Network

Author: Gao Yongguang

On February 24, 2022, Putin ordered the Russian army to invade the Ukraine from northern, Oriental, and South China.

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The Russian and Ukraine War occurred. Although all circles later explained the most popular geopolitical theory of international relations in the 21st century, in fact, this war is still the orthodox theory that is quite in line with international relations, that is, the national interests are preferred by other than others such as others such as others.Sovereignty, territorial, human rights, democracy and other value.

Simply put, the NATO allies expand eastward. Ukraine sought to join NATO. Once the NATO army settled in Ukraine, Russia lost the buffer area of Western European and American alliances, and the National Security would be threatened immediately and directly.National security is the core of national interests. The Russian army invading Ukraine is inevitable.

From the beginning of the war, all walks of life believe that Russia will adopt lightning tactics, go hand in three ways, enter Kiev, "beheading" against Ukrainian leader Zelezi, and then support a pro -Russian Ukraine regime.This judgment is also in line with the research of traditional international relations in war, that is, the party who actively initiated the war, and evaluated that he has a confidence to win before starting military means.

But the later development, the Ukraine was stubbornly resisting, and even launched a counterattack in November last year to recapture some territories. The Russian army also suffered heavy casualties. He had to abandon several cities and returned to the east of the Nieber River.So all walks of life began to re -evaluate, thinking that Russia's military power was not as powerful as expected; in addition, although the United States would not intervene directly, strong military assistance and European countries were at least united on the surface.Ukraine's Ruyi abacus has fallen.

From the National Group related to the Ukrainian War, their Ruyi abacus may be able to find the answer to the possible development of the Russian and Ukraine in 2023 and find out the answer.

For Russia, Putin's biggest abacus is of course occupied Ukraine.However, due to the continued increase in efforts in the United States, such as the US President Biden suddenly visited Kiev, Warsaw, and Zeelianzki on the eve of the anniversary of the Russian and Ukraine War, claiming to be "we will not leave";The US $ 45 billion military aid has recently agreed to provide a heavy M1 tank.War seems to have the possibility of rising and upgrading in 2023.

In fact, so far, Russia's combat power seems to be overestimated, but Russia's Ruyi abacus is really the national military power and completely control Ukraine?Do you get most of the national strength of Russia and consume most of Russia. Do n’t you think that Putin does not have too much calculation?

The current map of the Russian and Ukraine War is open, and Russia's current controlled areas have established a buffer belt in Russia and Ukraine.Moreover, Moscow can go straight to the Krimea Peninsula and quickly go to sea.Therefore, for Putin, maintaining a certain national strength, still maintaining a super -strong international status of nuclear weapons, and with the European and American NATO, having a safe buffer, should be his best choice in the uncle.In 2023, Pujing's Ruyi abacus is to force Ukraine and the West after a series of upgraded military victories, accepting the current situation of the Russian army occupied the four states of Wudong and the Crimean Peninsula.

For Ukraine, Zeleiski has been exhausted from the beginning of the war to maintain sovereignty and seek the survival of the people of Ukraine.The Rimeian Peninsula will also be recovered, and the U.S. military has stated that this is impossible.Therefore, Zeelianzi's Ruyi abacus may not work.If you have to be forced to peace in the end, the reconstruction of Ukraine can get strong European and American assistance, and Russia does not oppose it to wait for NATO, Zelei can still become a "anti -Russian national hero".

The Ruyi abacus in the United States, of course, dragged down Russia, exhausted Russia's national strength, and weakened Putin's influence. It is best to pull down Putin.But Putin basically knows the Ruyi abacus in the United States, so from time to time, nuclear weapons are threatened.At the anniversary of the Russian and Ukraine War, Russia announced that it would not participate in the new nuclear military negotiations, and the intention was to threaten the nuclear.Of course, the United States must also avoid the nuclear war.Therefore, if Russia's military and economy cannot be pulled down, and the last Ruyi abacus can only accept negotiations.After all, the United States has borrowed the Russian and Ukraine War to strengthen the military defense of NATO. The arsenal of NATO countries must be added. Of course, the United States can profit from it.

Another Ruyi abacus in the United States is of course dragging China to launch.However, China also has its own wishful thinking. From the beginning to the end of the Russia and Ukraine War, China plays the "onlookers who are in trouble."Wang Yi, the director of the Central Foreign Affairs Office of the Mainland Government, emphasized at the recent European Security Conference, and emphasized that on February 25 last year, the mainland government asked Russia and Ukraine to "sit down and negotiate".On the 24th anniversary, a special statement was issued on the Ukrainian war.

China's Ruyi abacus is of course to assist Russia to stabilize the big block in the north.Putin published a national information on the first anniversary of the Russian and Ukraine War, claiming that the development of the economy to Asia is to launch closer economic and trade cooperation with Mongolia and China.China has stabilized the north, and borrows the Belt and Road, combined with Central Asia, near the east (such as Pakistan), and the Middle East Arab countries (such as Xi Jinping and the Arab National Summit) to break through the United States' plugging, which is the real state of the Italian.

Under the three Russian, the United States, and China, the author believes that Europe, especially EU countries, does not have its own "big abacus", and Germany and France in major EU countries have their own "small abacus".British diplomatic policies have always used the U.S. Malaysia to look at it, but in the Ukrainian war, it also traveled. On the first anniversary of the war, it was also debated by Congress to ask the Prime Minister to immediately transport the mid -length weapon to Ukraine.In the German Leopard 2 tank, it was reluctant to agree, but it was unknown when it could be sent to Ukraine.In short, the United States has weakened Europe and cuts the dependence of European countries to Russia's energy and other raw materials.

Under the various "wishful thinking" of international hegemony, the Ukrainian people are the most pitiful groups.It is estimated that after the war, there are more than half of the Ukraine people, and there will be a long time to live below the poverty line. In addition to the injustice of more than tens of thousands of losing life, will international power care!

The author is a part -time professor at the National University of Political Science and Technology