Source: Nikkei Chinese Network
Author: Akiyama literati
2022 is about to end.Factors such as attacking Ukraine, inflation, and global currency tightening have shaken the world.If the Asian stock price index in 2022 is reviewed, India is expected to win overwhelming victory.The reason for the strong stock price of India is the tolerance of high interest rates, etc., and the purchase of long -term economic growth may be pouring in.
Bank stocks drive India and Singapore's stock market rising
As of December 20, compared with the end of 2021, the major stock price index of Asian countries and regions has increased by India's Sensex index, which has risen by 5.9 %.Observe the component stocks incorporated into the index.
The background of the higher stock price is the positive interest rate hike of Indian Reserve Bank (central bank).According to the constituent ratio of each section of the Sensex Index (the total market value ratio after adjustment), more than 30 % of the bank stocks are the largest industry as the largest industry.The impact of interest rate hike is easy to affect the overall stock price index.
Singapore's ST index, which is also actively promoting currency tightening, rose 4.2 %, ranking second in the increase.DBS Group Holdings LTD., Singapore Overseas Chinese Bank (OCBC), and Singapore Dahua Bank (UOB), the three major financial stocks accounted for more than 40 % of the index.Although the index contains the rise in interest rates such as real estate investment trusts (REIT), it is easy to become a variety of anti -winds and Hong Kong and mainland Chinese companies that are in severe environment, and under the rise of financial stocks, the overall rising as a whole.
Currency depreciation leads to the differentiation of stock prices in Indonesia and Vietnam
On the other hand, the appreciation of the US dollar brings a test to Asian currencies.The depreciation of the currency leads to a significant differentiation of the stock price.The strong Indonesian stock price index of Jakarta rose 2.8 %.Indonesia is a net exporter of energy. Under the global inflation situation, the economy remains strong.The central bank's interest rate hike is also very slow, and the Indonesian shield is more stable than other currencies.The performance of the Indonesian stock market exceeded 20 % of the US S & P 500 index that fell by 20 %.
On the other hand, the weakened Vietnam stock market fell 31.7 %, which performed the worst in Asia.It is characterized by the devaluation of the currency and the rapid interest rate hike to fight against its own currency depreciation.With the sharp decline in foreign exchange reserves, the Vietnamese central bank's intervention in buying Vietnam has become cautious, and it has raised a sharp interest rate of 1 % for 2 consecutive months.In particular, the real estate industry was severely hit, and the stock price was pulled down.
The source of growth in Asia is changing from China to India
India's performance in Asia is it only due to short -term factor?
"India is one of the few countries that can benefit from population dynamics, digitalization, carbonization, and globalization."Morgan Stanley's stock strategy analyst Ridham Desai evaluated India in the report on December 4.Due to the promotion of the growth of GDP (GDP) per capita per capita, India will increase 5 times to 25 million by 2031, and the middle class families will be more than doubled to 165 million. "It is predicted that India is called IndiaA strong economic circle will be born.
The expectation for the long -term growth of India is bringing peace of buying stocks.
It reflects the perseverance of the Indian economy and is receiving the movement of commodity and service tax (GST).India's fiscal year also began in April and Japan in April. In the eight months of 2022, India's GST revenue reached about 11.9 trillion rupees (about 1001.742 billion yuan).It increased by 27 % over the same period last year.The strong tax reflects the virtuous circle of Indian consumption and investment.
In addition, "China +1" has also become Dongfeng.Represents the iPhone of Apple in the United States.Apple is strengthening production in India.The Indian chaebol Tata Group is also expanding investment to accelerate the labor force.
The stock price trend is obviously sluggish in Greater China.The Shanghai Composite Index in Mainland China fell 15.6 %, and the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 18.4 %.It mainly reflects the effect of lowering the economy prevention measures.Due to the uncertainty of the policy and the deterioration of Sino -US relations, the ideal state of the previous supply chain with China as the core was increasingly questioned.From the perspective of population dynamics, China will give the position of the first population to India in the near future.
In 2022, the "India rise and the decline in Greater China" in the stock market may indicate the future of the world economy and funds in the future.
