Source: Taiwan Economic Daily
Economic Daily Theory
2022 is a multi -year -old year. First, the global epidemic continued to burn. At the end of February, the Russian and Ukraine War broke out, and then global inflation came one after another. Finally, in order to suppress inflation, many countries such as the United States have adjusted high interest rates.As a result, the global prosperity is depressed.Taiwan is a small open economy and is susceptible to the implication of the global economy.At the beginning of the year, the General Registration of the Taiwan Planning Department estimated that this year's economic growth rate can reach 4.2%, but due to the decline in international prosperity, and the outbreak of the epidemic, Taiwanese consumption shrinks."Insurance 3"; at the same time, the consumer price index (CPI) reached 2.93%, which is a new high in Taiwan in the past 10 years.
If you look at several items in the CPI again, including the growth rate of the external food fee index reaching 6%, the average increase in goods purchased every month will increase by more than 5%.level.Therefore, the representative word selected by the joint newspaper this year is "rising", which fully shows the public's concerns about inflation this year.This year, it will be closed. What will happen to Taiwan's economic boom next year?It should be an important issue that everyone cares about.
In terms of international economy, although the US inflation has declined slightly recently, it still maintains a high -end high -end of 7.1%. Therefore, the Federal Federal Standards will maintain a high interest rate level next year.Investment and real estate should not be optimistic.Many international institutions estimate that the economic growth rate in the United States may remain at 1%or even negative growth next year; therefore, the probability of "stagnation inflation" in the United States next year is very high.The situation of most European countries is very similar to the United States and even more serious. Therefore, the IMF estimates that the global economic growth rate may be only 2.7%next year, which is lower than 3.2%this year.
Secondly, the Russian and Ukraine War may continue; although the US -China relations show signs of improvement, the dualization of the international political and economic section in the future has become more and more obvious, one is headed by the United States and Europe;Russia -based.In the case of international political and economic blockization, the production cost of manufacturers will continue to rise, thereby further impacting the issue of international inflation that is already serious.In addition, the uncertain factors are whether the epidemic in mainland China can smoothly shift from the clearing policy to coexist with the virus, which will affect the production and consumption of mainland China.
As for the continuous shrinking of Taiwan's economy and international economy, it will have a significant impact on Taiwan exports.In fact, since the second half of this year, due to the rise in interest rates in the United States and countries, the global economy and trade have fallen rapidly. Taiwan has recently fell frequently. The exports have been declining since September.%, This is a rare situation for many years.Because the international prosperity has not seen signs of recovery, the decline in Taiwan's exports is likely to be seen until the first quarter of next year, or even the second season.
On the other hand, the Central Bank of Taiwan has also followed up the United States Federal Fair. Since this year, it has increased interest rates for three yards (0.75%). Although it is 17 yards lower than the United States, it is enough to have a serious impact on the Taiwan economy.In addition to reducing the willingness to invest in enterprises, it has a greater impact on Taiwan's real estate market, because the interest rate of real estate mortgage loans has risen significantly from about 1.3%at the beginning of the year to 2.0%.If you calculate the loan of 10 million yuan (NT $ 440,000), the monthly interest expenditure increases by about 6,000 yuan, and many families have increased the burden. Therefore, since the second half of this year, real estate transactions have obviousFlow.The US interest rate may remain in high -end next year, and the interest rates in Taiwan will not be reduced, so the real estate market in Taiwan will continue to shrink next year.
The only possible good news is that when the epidemic gradually slows down, private consumption has improved slightly. There may be a wave of retaliated consumption next year.Gan Lin.Because private consumption accounts for 55%of the GDP, it will be the main momentum for the economic growth of Taiwan next year.
In short, there will still be many uncertain factors in the economy inside and outside the Taiwan next year. We will not face less challenges than this year.This year's level.Therefore, when investing with individuals, it should be prudent; Taiwan's government departments should adopt more positive policies to stimulate the economy to prevent Taiwan's economy from declining.
