Han Heyuan
The mainstream academic circles and the industry will regard the "75%urbanization rate" as an inflection point in the Chinese real estate market.In their opinion, urbanization will continue to promote the development of real estate in China and promote rising house prices.A basic assumption of these people is that in the future, about 80%of the rural population in China will enter the city.The new population of these cities will be the main promotion factor of the economy.
This view is possible in Europe, America, even Japan and South Korea, and even India. It is alone in China and may not be established.The reason is that the current household registration system and the urban and rural dual system make many of them destined to be only "migrant workers of immigrants in the city" and "migratory bird workers".Most of them will have to choose to go back to the countryside because they are unable to work in the city when they are old, and because they lack necessary public services and social security.
We know that the household registration system, as a system of changes in the place of population and immigration control, naturally affects the liquidity of the labor market.The household registration system first restricts the government and workers' human capital investment for labor itself.
In China, the government's educational fiscal expenditure is based on household registration and cannot provide equalization education for non -household registration.At the same time, due to concerns about the liquidity of the workers (due to the lack of household registration and necessary public services and social security, the lack of a sense of belonging in migrant workers group will be more inclined to flow between different cities).Training.The household registration system affects the vocational training of the enterprise, which affects the investment of personal human capital. It is this exclusive education system that affects the quality of China's labor force.In fact, this has constituted an obstacle to the transformation and upgrading of China's economy. After the migrant workers enter the city, they can only be at the bottom of the society. They are engaged in the simplest and most skillful types of work. They also deprive them of the opportunity to flow up.Urbanization.
In addition, the support of the resource allocation and interest distribution of the household registration system solidify the social layering.The reform of the household registration system has actually further strengthened the dual structure of agricultural household registration and non -agricultural household registration, as well as dual structures that form local and foreign populations within the city, thereby forming a typical ternary social structure in China.At the same time, the household registration barriers between different regions also make public management services and social differentiation, and it shows the trend of fragmentation in space.Behind the gap between urban and rural areas, the distribution gap between the urban internal distribution, and the distribution gap between the regions, the adverse effects of the household registration system can be seen.
first manifests in public services and social security.Public services enjoyed by cities, rural population is not available.Local people enjoy it, it is difficult for foreigners to enjoy.This is mainly reflected in medical and children's education.Secondly, it is manifested in the development opportunities that hinder the population.The exclusion of the household registration system not only causes damage to the welfare of residents, but also hinders the development opportunities of the population.This is mainly reflected in the limitation of the household registration system that brings difficulties in applying for business operations, personal credit and financing.The most typical case is that in the past few years, many cities must have to apply for the city's household registration.This is equivalent to leaving the opportunity to directly deprive the non -household registration population and deprive them of the right to share new economic growth.
This is the problem.The dual system of household registration and urban and rural areas has made those rural population entering the city, without urban resident accounts, and lack of sufficient skills. Not only can they be admitted and discriminated against in terms of car purchase and purchase, children's education and other aspects.discriminate.
In addition, due to China's land system and special land acquisition system, the peasants do not have legal bargaining power when land acquisition in land acquisition.In this way, compared with many countries and regions in the world, when land is requisition, Chinese farmers only get rarely compensation, and they cannot get land property income from farmland forests and house land.Because of the household registration system, they lack human capital investment and skills. They can only earn me wages by relying on traditional agricultural income and low -end workers.On the other hand, due to land finance and monopoly buying land, house prices are high.In terms of current housing prices, the meager income of rural farmers and migrant workers in the city alone is unable to buy it at all.
It is these institutional factors that the population flow of China is a deformed and distorted flow.The normal population flow of countries around the world is generally followed by such a path: when you are young, enter the town from the countryside, and after entering the town, you are not alone, and you also include employment.Medical and pension also entered the city.Naturally, other public services will follow the city.Most of these people will become citizens who work, live and live in these towns.
But China is another kind of flow path: when the years are rich, they enter the town from the countryside, contribute light and heat to the town in exchange for meager wages.When his own value was squeezed out of the city, he had to drag his old body and fold back from the city of other people's cities.Because many of them are destined to be only "migrant workers in urban and African immigrants" and "migratory bird workers".Most of them (the data given by Professor Zhou Tianyong is 85%), who will be unable to work when they are old, and lack the necessary public services and social security, and have to choose to return to the countryside.
This typical reverse urbanization is not a good thing for the growth of China's economy.It means that the Chinese economy has lost the needs of the construction of housing, decoration, purchase of furniture, electrical appliances, lifestyle and horizontal upgrades.In addition, the population of this part of the country after the elderly has a low marginal consumption rate. Some scholars believe that its consumption level is only 25%to 33%of the urban level.
This means that China will form a huge consumer collapse area with a population of 200 million to 300 million.Coupled with rural elderly residents who have never worked out of work, this scale may reach about 400 million to 500 million people.Due to the limitation of fiscal payment capacity, this part of the population cannot be treated at the same level of elderly citizens as urban residents.Coupled with the lack of sufficient financial management knowledge, it is foreseeable that their consumption level must be low and become a new poor.
The author is a Chinese economist and a financial columnist
China will form a huge consumer collapse area with a population of 200 million to 300 million.Coupled with rural elderly residents who have never worked out of work, this scale may reach about 400 million to 500 million people.
