Source: Voice of the United States
Author: Jiang Yu
The Russian and Ukraine War, and Russia's energy for energy, allowed security guarantee issues to return to the ranks of major public issues in Germany and Europe.An obvious political result is that NATO, led by the United States, has been confirmed again in the field of security guarantee in Germany and Europe.
On the other hand, the pro -Russian positions played by China in the Ukraine War made Europe realize that China is in another way to have a negative impact on European security order.
Germany must face another tricky issue: after deep binding from the economic field and China, it will likely cannot cope with possible political risks.This risk includes that it has appeared, for example, the crisis in logistics, supply chain, and raw material supply caused by China's crown disease "zero" policy this year;Risk of time period.
Shuerz is starting to revise the trend of economic relations in the middle of Germany.Try to get rid of the economic and trade relations of the Chinese market and the Chinese supply chain, and enhance the diversification of German economic affairs.As the European Union's leader in Germany, China will undoubtedly affect the European Union's policies to the EU for a longer period of time.
The Russian and Ukraine War changes German diplomacy
On December 8th a year ago, Olaf Scholz was the ninth federal prime minister in Germany.At the beginning of the office of Tsumin, he needed to face a severe diplomatic situation, a dense war between the war between Russia and Ukraine.At the end of February, the outbreak of the war in Russia's invasion of Ukraine and continued to this day.The European continent is experiencing the largest war since the South and late 1990s, as well as millions of war refugees.
This war is re -constructing a framework of European political issues. Obviously, after the end of the Cold War, the "national security guarantee issue" has once again become a major public issue at various European countries and the European Union level.The manufacturer of this issue is not only Russia, but also the supporters and good partners of Russia-China, which appeared in the joint-China, the second largest economy in the world in the world in the 30 years after the Cold War.
For the Tungers and the German government, it is undoubtedly a difficult situation, because after the Cold War, especially in the last two decades, Germany's energy and economy is largely.Two countries have deep binding.
Germany has a serious dependence on Russia's energy. Before Russia invaded Ukraine, one -third of German oil, about 45%of coal, and more than 55%of natural gas came from Russia.
In January before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the Tsumers and the German government encountered a great crisis of trust on the issue of Russia.On January 25th before the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War, the New York Times said that the United States and NATO allies were worried about Germany's attitude towards Russia and believed that Germany could not explain a tough attitude towards Russia in the Russian crisis.
Worries in the United States are not unreasonable.On the planning and construction of Beixi II (through the Baltic Sea, from Russia to Germany, 1234 kilometers), since 2017, Germany has fallen into a long -term diplomatic disputeEssenceIt should be pointed out that this diplomatic dispute has an inseparable relationship with Trump's election of the President of the United States.During Trump's ruling, the deterioration of German -American relations is also obvious.
In December 2019, after signing a bill for a pipeline that prohibit enterprises from engaging in a pipeline work in Europe, Germany made public protests on the United States.At that time, the German Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Tsutz, publicly criticized the US sanctions on Beixi No. 2 as "serious interference in European internal affairs and sovereignty."
Trump's ruling during his administration, as well as diplomatic cracks caused by the European Union and the United States, was gradually repaired after Biden was elected.But there is no doubt that the outbreak of the Russian and Ukraine War allowed most member states of Germany and the European Union to quickly confirm the importance of the United States in the field of security in security.Finland and Sweden actively apply for joining NATO is also a proof.
After the war that invaded Ukraine in Russia, Souls quickly clarified Germany's diplomatic position, continued to provide weapons to Ukraine, and joined the ranks of sanctioning Russia.
From the perspective of geopolitical science, in the past half a century, German -Russian relations have been one of the three cornerstones of German diplomacy (the other two are German -American relations and Germany and French relations).However, it is clear that the Russian and Ukraine War in February this year caused the axis of German diplomacy to move west.
"Germany is abandoning its diplomatic basis for the past half century, Germany (Germany), which is one of the half -century diplomatic foundations."During the interview, the German (German) relations became the German (West Germany) diplomatic foundation.It lasted for half a century. Of course, energy diplomacy is the primary, including the cultivation of a large number of pro -Russian factions in the Social Democratic Party.We see the biggest changes that he has made in the past year. Cross -Atlantic relations have been reinforced and consolidated, and they are priority. "
China is becoming a joint strategic opponent of the Western world
From the perspective of Europe, the Russian and Ukraine War was undoubtedly a war of aggression, and morality was standing in Ukraine.Therefore, when China shows the understanding and support of the Russian war behavior, China's image is inevitably negatively negative, whether at the national diplomatic level or at the European level.
In April of this year, when VOA interviewed the French Think Tank Institute Institut Montaigne, the director of Asia Plan, Mathieu Duchatel, Du had expressed such concerns: "The current attitude towards the Russia and Ukraine War is the attitude of China.A European Union is very concerned about and wants to negotiate with China. I personally think that China ’s attitude and positioning of the Russian and Ukraine War and Russia will greatly affect the relationship between the European Union and China in 2022."
Du Yanzhi's worry quickly became a reality.At the NATO summit held at the end of June this year, "China" appeared in NATO's strategic concept for the first time.European countries centered on Germany and France are regarding China as a "challenge" of the security order of cross -Atlantic Ocean.Although this is more milder than the United States regarding China as a "threat".
NATO Secretary -General Stoltenberg even bluntly criticized China's position and behavior.He said on the eve of the Madrid Summit that "first because China failed to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and China was scattered some false allegations about NATO and the West.More intimate.
And, criticism of China's diplomatic position has risen to the level of ideological confrontation."Competition between democracy and authoritarianism is rising. Moscow and Beijing are publicly competing for rules -based international order." The wording used by Stoltenberg from Norway has begun to be consistent with US leaders.
Give up for more than 200 years of military uncle, and is actively applying for joining NATO Sweden, and also felt a strategic threat from China.
Swedish Institute of Defense (FOI) senior researcher Oscar Almen (OSCAR Almén stated in an interview with VOA in June this year that "Russia's threat to Sweden is very different from China's threat to Sweden. China has economic influence, and Russia has a substantial military threat. China supports Russia, so it will also indirectly affect Sweden's security. Therefore, China supports Russia's interests of Sweden. If China supports Russia economically, the EU's sanctions on Russia will have a weakened effect.Both Europe and Sweden will constitute a security threat. This is a more direct threat. "
If the previous Chinese threat theory is mostly based on the fear of China's economy and national capital, then China's diplomatic performance in 2022 has added some new content to "China Threat theory": Based on national security guaranteeWorries at the level.
Germany is reducing economic dependence on China
As of the end of 2021, China has been the world's largest trading partner in the world for six consecutive years.Not only that, China is also an indispensable supplier in the German economy. 70%of the rare earth and other metals required by the German industry come from China, and 46%of German companies depend on suppliers from China.
The Tsokitz and the German government are changing the in -depth binding between the German economy and China.
"At present, the German government consists of three political parties. Two of them-the attitude of the Green Party and the Liberal Party on the Chinese issue is quite consistent. From different perspectives, they have the same conclusion that they have the same conclusions.. The Green Party mainly takes human rights issues as the starting point, and the Liberal Party is more about economic unfair competition issues. Of course, the Green Party also sees economic challenges from China, and liberals have also seen China."The issue of infringement of human rights", Tim Rühlig, a researcher at the German Foreign Relations Committee, said in an interview with VOA in October this year.
"The largest social Democratic Party in the ruling party seems a bit hesitant. There are different positions in the Social Democratic Party. To be precise, Schultz is not very clear on this issue. He continues to continueAvoid talking about too many details about China. But when you talk to the people around him, you will also hear different views. Therefore, I think that the attitude of Shuerz is the biggest mystery in this governing alliance. "
and independent commentator Wu Qiang said, "Although there are many ambiguous and hesitant places for investment in China, they haveThis intensive cooperative relationship is showing that Tsutz is different from any previous social and Democratic parties. "
In terms of advancing the dependence of German economy, Lu Lishi said, "What Germany needs to do is the diversification of economic affairs, far from China, we are too dependent on China. Of course, in a democratic country, in a free market economyThe government cannot tell the company that we want to invest here and do not invest there. But at least I think that the government does not need to encourage German companies to invest further in China. What we currently see is that German companies are indeed considering geopolitical politics.The changes in the environment, many companies are indeed trying to split the supply chain. But at the same time, this does not mean that they are not investing in China. I think many large companies are investing in the Chinese market, but they are based on investing in the Chinese market. "
But from the actual perspective, German -China relations have a huge economic volume, and the cooperation between each other is comprehensive, so this change will be long.
Wu Qiang said, "The change of Dorot's diplomacy against China has adopted a way that is not ease, but a slow way. This is not like a transition to Russia, it is a radical way of transition.In the long run, Germany will definitely follow the United States' policy on China, but the adjustment of Germany's relations with China at present is actually based on its own interests, but this adjustment has undoubtedly begun. For exampleThe unevenness of Germany and China relations is mainly to focus on the economy. In terms of human rights, civic society, and the Internet, this transparency and openness between each other are asymmetry and imbalance between Germany.Symmetry and unevenness will be a shaft of German -China relations from now on. "
