After the Bank of Japan announced the adjustment of the upper limit of the YCC policy interval (yield curve control, Yield Curve Control), the market ushered in a wave of huge shocks, and speculated that the last persistent person in the loose policy has shifted?

On December 20, the Bank of Japan announced the adjustment of the upper limit of the YCC policy range to adjust the interest rate range of the 10 -year Treasury bonds from Japan from ± 0.25%to ± 0.50%.The previous 73 trillion yen (about 75 billion yuan) increased to about 9 trillion yen.

After the Bank of Japan unexpectedly expanded its yield trading interval, the yield of Japanese Treasury bonds soared on the board, and the 10 -year -old Japanese Treasury yield jumped to 21 basis points to 0.46%, the highest since 2015.Before the release on December 22, Japan's 10 -year Treasury bond yield was 0.475%.The yen has also opened the pace of appreciation. Recently, the US dollar hit the minimum of 131.53 against the yen.

However, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kuroda Kuroda, explained at a press conference after the resolution that the market fluctuations have intensified in the near future, which has caused the yield curve to be a bit distorted. Because the deterioration of market functions may threaten corporate financing, today todayMake a decision.Adjustment will make the loose policy more effective, unpredictable to exit the yield curve control (YCC).

"If the time of inflation is close to 2%, we can discuss the time of withdrawing from the loose policy, but today's decision is not interest rate hikes, and it is appropriate to continue the loose policy." Kuroda Dongyan said.

The scale of national debt held by the Bank of Japan exceeded 50 %, the highest level in history

In April 2013, the Bank of Japan opened the "quantification and looseness" (QQE), and then introduced the yield curve control (YCC) to continuously expand the scale of asset purchase.

The essence of yield curve control (YCC) is an unconventional interest rate tool, that is, indirectly set the level of return target levels through government bond repurchase, control the yield within the ideal range.

On December 19, the latest data released by the Bank of Japan showed that the balance of government bond issuance without short -term Treasury coupons in Japan was 106.56139 trillion yen (about 8 trillion US dollars), and the holding amount of the Bank of Japan was 53.56187 trillionThe yen is 50.3%, reaching the highest level of history.In the early 2013, the central bank held only 14.9%of government bonds.

Some research institutions believe that the upper limit of Japan ’s up -to -yield curve control (YCC) is beyond market expectations, and it is believed that this adjustment is to cope with the side effects of the YCC policy."This monetary policy meeting expanded the fluctuations of the ten -year Treasury bonds to '± 0.5%' is not based on fundamental factor, but mainly the side effects brought by the YCC policy. One of the side effects of the current YCC policy is that the Japanese government bond market flowsSexual disappearance. The concerns about the side effects of YCC policy are the main motivations for the fluctuation of the 10 -year Treasury bond yield on December 20, "the main motivation of the 10 -year -old Treasury bond yield." Nomura Dongfang International said.

What does the

YCC policy adjustment mean?

Since the beginning of this year, with the Federal Reserve ’s interest rate hikes, Japan’ s exchange and debt have continued.The yen had fallen below 150 points to the US dollar, and continued to reach a new low since 1990. At the same time, under the YCC policy, 10 -year Japanese Treasury bonds have been "zero transactions" for several consecutive days, becoming a new signal of the deterioration of market liquidity deterioration.Essence

From the perspective of inflation data, since this year, global energy and food prices have continued to rise. Japan's CPI has exceeded the target inflation rate of 2%since April.Since 1982, it has exceeded the 2%inflation target of the Bank of Japan for seven consecutive months.

At present, what does the upper limit of the Bank of Japan's adjustment of the YCC policy mean?Zhou Junzhi, the macro chief of Minsheng Securities, believes that at this time, the Bank of Japan has adjusted the YCC policy range, and its essence is still high inflation restricts the real economy.This is the meaning of breaking this negative feedback and cooperating with fiscal policy to reduce the suppression of the Japanese economy.

CITIC's macro chief Huang Wentao's team believes that the slowdown in interest rate hikes and the rise of recession has risen, which led to narrowing the policy adjustment window of the Japanese central bank.From historical experience, the Bank of Japan has a higher tolerance for the devaluation of the yen, and it is more sensitive to the appreciation of the yen. The main reason is that Japan is an export -oriented economy, and the yen appreciation has brought a large blow to enterprises.With the high probability of the US economy in 2023, the yen may further enter the accelerated appreciation range. Therefore, the adjustment of monetary policy adjustment in 2023 will undoubtedly increase the risk of the yen appreciation. ThereforeChoose another important consideration of the current time.

Will

Will the Japanese monetary policy turn?

Since the beginning of this year, major countries around the world have abandoned the quantitative easing (QE) policy at the beginning of the epidemic and gradually moved towards "tightening", but Japan still adheres to its loose monetary policy.

Born in 1944, the Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kuroda Hoshita, will be stepped down in April next year.As a supporter of Japan's loose monetary policy, will Japan usher in a monetary policy after his resignation?

Zhou Junzhi's team believes that Kuroda Dongyan, as the opening of the Japanese super loose monetary policy, is about to step down in April next year, and it does not rule out that the Bank of Japan will further tighten the monetary policy in the future.If the Bank of Japan continues to tighten the monetary policy, or marks the changes in the global US dollar circulation paradigm of the ten years before the epidemic, it will trigger a large -scale global financial assets to balance.The essential logic behind it is that the global macro environment switches from "low inflation-low interest rate-low fluctuations" to "high inflation-high interest rate-high fluctuations".

Huang Wentao's team believes that the expansion of YCC's target interval has essentially taken the first step in the normalization of monetary policy.Although the Bank of Japan has denied that this adjustment is related to the normalization of monetary policy, from the essence of the essence, the upper -limit YCC limit under the current market conditions is tantamount to interest rate hikes.The door.In 2021, the People's Bank of China had started to reflect and evaluate the QQE policy from the official level.On December 19, 2022, the Japanese government announced the plan to revise the "joint statement" with the Bank of Japan in 2013 to consider increasing flexibility based on the 2% price target.The consideration of the adjustment of monetary policy framework has gradually occupied the mainstream position within the Bank of Japan.Earlier, the yield of Japanese Treasury bonds was small. After the modification of this fluctuation interval, the strict control of YCC's long -term yield has been abandoned in essence.

After adjusting the upper limit of the YCC policy, the market begins to expect that the Bank of Japan has a greater steering.Goldman Sachs Japan Chief Economist Naohiko Baba recently pointed out in a report that as the Bank of Japan started the first step, the Bank of Japan may give up a negative interest rate policy to strengthen the control of the yield curve control.Persistent.