Zhang Yun: Why does North Koreas nuclearization may be realized?

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On September 9th, North Korea celebrated the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. The event was obviously different from previous military parades. It did not show intercontinental missiles and short -range missiles, no live broadcast, but played a video after one day.Kim Yongnan, chairman of the permanent committee of the Supreme People's Council of North Korea, said in his speech that he must promote economic construction strongly.There are no past nuclear weapons and anti -American content in the gymnastics. In the group gymnastics of the "glorious motherland", they specially spell the English word "peaceful" "friendship" to show the signal of reconciliation in the United States.

On September 5, North Korean leader Kim Jong -un met with Zheng Yirong, head of the Special Embassy of the South Korean Presidential Special Embassy, emphasized that his trust in US President Trump was unhappy and promised to abandon the nuclear during the first term of Trump.In the United States, Trump highly commented on the personal letter from the expectations of Kim Jong -un looking forward to the second US -DPRK summit. The White House said that he was arranging.

It can be said that the first time the US -DPRK leaders released the goodwill, which led the Korean Peninsula to face unprecedented opportunities.But on the other hand, the possibility and doubt about the reconciliation and durability of the US -DPRK have always been deeply ingrained. There are two main questions: First, North Korea has developed nuclear weapons high -profile.This is really or fake.In a recent report, the International Atomic Energy Agency still criticized North Korea's related activities that violated the UN Security Council resolution.Second, the randomness and degeneration of Trump's governing style have made the United States great uncertainty about North Korea's policy.

This article mainly focuses on the perspective of North Korea, and analyzes why North Korea's nuclear abandonment and the nuclearization of the peninsula are possible.

Stable regime means have changed

There are countless discussions on North Korea's intentions. Of course, from the perspective of governors, we must first ensure the stability of the regime.In 2017, what we saw was that Kim Jong -un wanted nuclear weapons and developed the economy to improve people's livelihood.After entering 2018, North Korea's policy direction has changed. It is necessary to end the hostile state and obtain the security guarantee of the United States, and at the same time develop the economy.The author believes that North Korea's intention to ensure the stability of the regime will not change, but the means may change.

First of all, it is necessary to see that North Korea's change is that it is impossible for the three means of nuclear weapons, ending hostility, and development of the economy. Especially for the development of nuclear weapons and the development of economy, it is a dilemma.Internally, North Korea's investment in huge countries to develop nuclear weapons means that domestic work is concentrated in economic construction.

From the outside, there is a high consensus on the issue of no nuclearization on the peninsula, China, the United States, Japan, and South Korea and other countries and the international community. Without nuclearization, North Korea cannot obtain external funds and markets to develop the economy.

Secondly, the use of nuclear weapons as a means has passed the peak stage, and the importance of economic development is prominent.As far as North Korea's national strength is concerned, it is not only impossible to develop and maintain a large -scale nuclear arsenal, but it is not great in combat. Nuclear weapons are mainly tools for diplomatic games.

If there is no nuclear crisis, it can be said that the problem of North Korea is unlikely to be a matter of concern to the President of the United States. Therefore, one of the important purpose of North Korea's development of nuclear weapons is to pay attention to the United States, and the realization of the US -DPRK summit meeting can be said to have achieved the goal of North Korea.

On the other hand, the concentrated development of nuclear weapons by 2017 has led to sanctions in the international community, livelihood difficulties, and foreign exchange reserves sharply. Continuing this will affect social stability.

Third, end the hostile and obtain security guarantee, start to replace nuclear weapons, and become a new major political means to achieve a large goal of political stability in North Korea.At the end of 2011, Kim Jong -un inherited from his father's inheritance of a country with the guidance of the "Pioneer Political route". After governing, he actually changed this basic national policy and instead proposed the security and economic development of political power.

Now, Kim Jong -un seems to further clarify economic development as the focus of work. This requires the method of signing a peace treaty that ended the hostile state to prove that the country has obtained security guarantees and explained to the governing elite class.The legitimacy of one yuan transition.

From any perspective, there are still great differences in the general behavior of North Korea and the international community, which is also the reason why the international community, especially the West, has been criticized and condemned.However, we also have to see the desire shown by North Korea, that is, we want to integrate into the international community and gradually transform into a normal country, although this desire often repeats.North Korea has gradually transformed into the desire of a normal country. It has both internal necessity and external possibilities.

Kim Jong -un's age to promote changes

The greatest internal necessity comes from the highest leader of North Korea.Although we do not know the exact age of Kim Jong -un, it is reported that it is about 35 years old. The young factors will become a very key factor for Kim Jong -un's abandoned nuclear and developing economic transformation countries.

The experience of living abroad when he was young has made Kim Jong -un clearly know that North Korea's current domestic and diplomatic conditions are unsustainable, and the unsustainable sustainability of maintaining the stability of the regime.If it does not change, in the long life, more difficulties and uncertainty will be encountered.Instead, it is better to change early.When the entire Asian economy is increasingly integrated and new economic momentum such as information technology is constantly innovating, is it possible for North Korea to live in an insulating state forever?

The author believes that North Korea's governing elites should not have much doubt about the general direction of reform and opening up. The main concerns and controversy are when, how and speed, and whether the possible results can be controlled.

The largest external possibility comes from changes in the strategic pattern of Northeast Asia.The rise of China and the comparison between China and the United States, especially in the Asian region, have made North Korea a certain certainty of the evolution of the strategic pattern of this region in the future.

Unlike the first nuclear crisis of the Korean Peninsula, China's forces are not the same as before, and it is impossible to absent the future construction of the nuclear issue of the peninsula. This restricts the United States unilateral action. This change is not in the past.

At the same time, Trump ’s“ American first ”after the administration means that the long -term resolution of the North Korean nuclear issue requires more efforts from regional countries.In the short term, the process of reconciliation of US -DPRK relations will bring direct impetus to the internal reforms of North Korea and bring thrust in the Asahi and North Korea reconciliation; however, from the medium and long term, these positive changes will promote the between Northeast Asian countries.The reconciliation process and the establishment of regional security mechanisms, while the latter's proportion of Sino -US factors will be relatively reduced.

The goal of the transformation of North Korea is to gradually move towards normal countries and integrate into the international community in steps.First of all, it is necessary to see that this is a positive signal, and it needs to be encouraged and guided, but it is also necessary to reduce the excessive expectations of the normal nationalization of North Korea.Just like a patient with severe eye diseases and long -term eye masks, he needs to gradually let him contact the sun step by step.This is a slow recovery process.

The author is an associate professor at the National Niigata University of Japan

Senior Researcher of Regional and Global Governance of Beijing Foreign Studies University in China

If there is no nuclear crisis, it can be said that the problem of North Korea is unlikely to be a matter of concern to the President of the United States. Therefore, one of the important purpose of North Korea's development of nuclear weapons is to pay attention to the United States, and the realization of the US -DPRK summit meeting can be said to have achieved the goal of North Korea.